1. The Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday to hold interest rates steady or hike them is one of the most unclear in years. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher again, feeding the hawks’ worries that energy prices could translate into sticky, broad-based inflation and necessitate a rate hike. At the same time, the latest inflation report showed prices cooled, giving the central bank some breathing room and bolstering the case to hold rates steady. Futures markets put the chances of the Fed holding rates at 62%, down from 87% on July 17, while chances of a hike have risen to 37%, up from just 12%. If odds are below 80%, there’s no conviction in markets, giving the Fed a window to hike if it wanted to.
2. Gold has managed to hold critical support near $4,000 an ounce for the past five consecutive weeks, and although significant downside risks remain, some analysts see growing potential for a bullish shift in the market. The precious metal has held critical support even as oil prices climbed to their highest level in nine weeks. Although rising interest-rate expectations could weigh on gold, some analysts believe the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is creating a potential inflection point for the precious metal. A dovish surprise or a dollar crack are the two things that would reignite the bull case, with central bank buying acting as a floor rather than a catalyst in the meantime.
3. The bond market’s old ceiling is turning into a floor. The longer it holds, the harder it becomes for stocks to ignore. The 30-year Treasury yield closed above 5% for 14 straight sessions through Friday, its longest run above that level since July 2007. It has finished above the 5% level 29 times this year, already the most in any calendar year since 2007. That is a change from the brief tests that previously pushed the long bond into Wall Street’s danger zone. A drop back below 5% would weaken the warning. Holding above, it would suggest the old ceiling is becoming lasting support. And this isn’t just a U.S. story. Government bond yields across major developed markets have been moving higher together. That rising basic return increases the competition stocks face from government bonds while lifting borrowing costs for households and businesses.
4. Commodities markets may soon have a second major issue to worry about: extreme weather. El Niño is a climate pattern in which unusually warm water spreads across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, shifting weather patterns and bringing heavy rain to some regions and drought to others. A so-called Super El Niño, what scientists see emerging this year, is more likely to trigger severe flooding, droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather worldwide. “While there are many El Niño forecasting models, they all agree that El Niño is emerging, and it is likely to be very strong,” Bank of America strategists Antonio Gabriel, wrote.
5. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge showed prices edged down in June but remained uncomfortably above the central bank’s 2% goal. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 3.7%, in line with expectations and down from 4.1% in May. On a “core” basis, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, PCE clocked in at 3.3%, also in line with expectations and down a tenth of a percentage point from 3.4% in May. Month over month, inflation cooled: Core PCE increased 0.1%, compared with expectations of 0.2% and down from 0.3% in May.
6. In the week ending July 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 197,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 187,000 to 188,000. The 4-week moving average was 202,750, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 207,500 to 207,750.
7. Crude oil prices have been trending lower over the past couple of days, but the benchmarks are on course to book both a weekly and a monthly rise. On a monthly basis, Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate have both gained close to 20%. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $87.67 per barrel, and WTI was changing hands for $82.07 per barrel, both down by 1% from Thursday on reports about more tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz even as hostilities between Iran and the United States continue.
8. EUR/USD corrects lower on Friday and trades below 1.1500 following a two-day rally that saw the pair gain more than 1%. The risk-averse market atmosphere helps the U.S. Dollar outperform its rivals heading into the weekend and forces the pair to retrace a portion of its weekly gains.
9. USD/JPY dropped yesterday as much as 5 big figures to a low of 158.00 on possible FX intervention. USD/JPY recovered to near 161.00 ahead of today’s Bank of Japan policy decision before an intervention-like kneejerk drop to 158.55 later in the session.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive policy meeting this year. The central bank voted in a split decision to hold its benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari, Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, and Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack dissented, preferring to raise rates by a quarter percentage point. The decision comes as the latest reading on inflation showed relief from price growth excluding volatile food and energy prices. The so-called “core” Consumer Price Index dropped to 2.6% in June, from 2.9% a month earlier, as a near 10% decline in gasoline prices helped pull headline inflation down to 3.5%, from 4.2%. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has repeatedly said that the Fed will deliver price stability but hasn’t offered direction on interest rates or on what the central bank will do to accomplish that.
The semiconductor sell-off has punished investors across the board. Leverage has made the damage far harder to recover from. The iShares Semiconductor ETF has fallen roughly 25% from its June 22 peak while the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares, a leveraged ETF, has plunged nearly two-thirds over the same stretch. The leverage unwind intensified overnight after SK Hynix reported earnings, sending South Korea’s Kospi down as much as 13% before dip buyers cut the loss to 6%. Goldman Sachs traders still saw buyers stepping into memory stocks, suggesting the rout remains disorderly rather than capitulatory, even as the sell-off triggered a record wave of trading halts. It would be easy to assume that SOXL should be down three times the SOXX loss of 25%, or 75%. SOXL did not malfunction. The fund is designed to deliver three times the daily return of the NYSE Semiconductor Index. The fund resets its exposure after every session. The next day’s gain or loss then compounds from a new starting value, so its return over several weeks will not necessarily equal three times the semiconductor index return over that period. That structure can work spectacularly when chip stocks keep moving steadily higher. Volatile selloffs or even just a choppy, sideways market expose the pitfalls of leverage that resets daily.
U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter, weighed down by rising imports to fuel the U.S. artificial-intelligence boom and decreased government spending. At the same time, consumers shrugged off a surge in gas prices fueled by the conflict with Iran and increased their spending. The Commerce Department said Thursday U.S. gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced across the economy, adjusted for inflation and seasonal changes – rose at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter. Economists surveyed expected GDP growth of 1.8% for the April to June period. The economy grew at a 2.1% pace in the first quarter.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Jul. 24, 2026 | Jul. 31, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,064.63 | $4,053.60 | -11.03 | -0.27% |
| Silver | $58.57 | $57.87 | -0.70 | -1.20% |
| Platinum | $1,593.78 | $1,651.55 | 57.77 | 3.62% |
| Palladium | $1,248.09 | $1,283.20 | 35.11 | 2.81% |
| Dow | 51947.94 | 52485.74 | 537.80 | 1.04% |
Month End to Month End Close
| Jun. 30, 2026 | Jul. 31, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,039.59 | $4,053.60 | 14.01 | 0.35% |
| Silver | $59.61 | $57.87 | -1.74 | -2.92% |
| Platinum | $1,555.85 | $1,651.55 | 95.70 | 6.15% |
| Palladium | $1,207.92 | $1,283.20 | 75.28 | 6.23% |
| Dow | 52317.81 | 52485.74 | 167.93 | 0.32% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Aug. 1, 2025 | Jul. 31, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,347.88 | $4,053.60 | 705.72 | 21.08% |
| Silver | $36.89 | $57.87 | 20.98 | 56.87% |
| Platinum | $1,310.33 | $1,651.55 | 341.22 | 26.04% |
| Palladium | $1,213.79 | $1,283.20 | 69.41 | 5.72% |
| Dow | 43588.58 | 52485.74 | 8897.16 | 20.41% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3968/3883/3784 | 55.49/52.80/50.08 |
| Resistance | 4152/4251/4336 | 60.90/63.62/63.31 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1613/1551/1509 | 1268/1209/1173 |
| Resistance | 1655/1717/1759 | 1304/1363/1400 |