1. Markets overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week for the first time in more than three years, but the decision is likely to be a closer call than investors’ bets suggest. “The probabilities in the market seem higher than I would necessarily assign at this point,” Loretta Mester, former president of the Cleveland Fed, said. Mester pointed to recent arguments by key members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee, New York Fed president John Williams and Fed Governor Chris Waller, suggesting that neither is convinced a rate hike is appropriate. However, key inflation data released Friday boosted market expectations for a hike. The Consumer Price Index for August showed monthly prices rose 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, crossing a symbolic line in the sand drawn by a handful of Fed officials. Since Friday, traders have been pricing in 85% to 90% odds that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points.
2. More pain may be in store for the bond market at the hands of the Fed’s fresh interest rate hike if history is any guide. Think 6% on the U.S. Treasury yield, up from today’s already worrying 5%. Historically, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen about 50 basis points on average in the first six months after the Fed began hiking rates. Over the following 12 months, the average increase in yields reached roughly 110 basis points. If this trend materializes again, the 10-year yield would surpass 6.0% next year for the first time since August 2000.
3. Bitcoin bulls are back after months of gloom, but a Federal Reserve rate decision this week will test that optimism, even as a key Senate vote on crypto legislation could provide a surprise tailwind. The rally marked a turnaround for bitcoin, which had slumped roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak. Although traders are assigning almost no chance of bitcoin rescaling that peak, the bitcoin options market has flipped bullish for the first time in 12 months. At first glance, that optimism seems misguided: tensions in the Middle East remain high, the odds of the U.S. Senate passing a key crypto bill that could boost adoption have dimmed, and inflation has remained elevated, raising expectations of a Fed rate hike, which usually sucks liquidity out of such risk assets.
4. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman suddenly seems so disturbed by the potential AI monster he has helped create that he is having a hard time sleeping. “There are two ways AI progress could go very badly, and that we must avoid,” Altman said. “First, we could lose control of the future to AI. This is unacceptable; we are unapologetically on Team Humanity, and AI must always serve people. To ensure that, we need ways to ensure that alignment and safety techniques stay ahead of progress in model capabilities.” He continued, “Second, we could end up in a world with too much concentration of power. If an extraordinarily powerful AI is used by one person or company to impress their worldview onto everyone else, the results could be extremely dystopian. Avoiding these two threats requires walking a narrow middle path; for example, one country could gain too much power. Another example is one lab ending up with too much power.” Within the course of two days, AI titans at Anthropic, CEO Dario Amodei and Altman, have managed to scare the hell out of the human race with the powerful technology they created and pushed their teams full of pioneering super-coders to supercharge. “Over the last few months, I have become convinced that fully addressing the risks requires even more prudence, not just investing in risk prevention, but pacing the rate of capabilities advancement so that risk prevention has time to keep up,” Amodei stated in an essay on Saturday. “We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of A.I. models. Progress will still seem fast, and we must make wise use of the time we gain.”
5. The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, but the decline likely overstates the health of the labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ended September 12, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled had forecasted 208,000 claims for the latest week.
6. Oil prices fell on Friday as easing concerns over Saudi supply disruptions outweighed anxiety about a widening of conflict across the Middle East. Brent crude futures fell by 88 cents, or 0.84%, to $103.94 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate futures were little changed at $102.15. Benchmark Brent prices are on track for their first weekly loss in three, down 0.8%.
7. EUR/USD remains on the defensive on Friday and heads for a weekly loss as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy outlook keeps the U.S. Dollar firmly supported. A rebound in oil prices and Treasury yields adds pressure on the pair. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1462, near levels last seen in late July.
8. USD/JPY advances sharply on Friday, trading around 156.95 at the time of writing, up 0.63% on the day. The pair has pulled back after reaching a daily high of 158.06 earlier in the day. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens significantly despite the Bank of Japan raising interest rates, while the U.S. Dollar remains supported by expectations of further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in the coming months. New policy projections showed 16 of 18 policymakers anticipate at least one more quarter-percentage-point hike by the end of this year, with only two of them seeing rates remain stable from here.
Surging U.S. Treasury yields have started to spook stock investors. The percentage of fund managers globally overweight stocks, in other words, bullish, has fallen to 49% from 56% last month. Conversely, fund manager cash levels rose to 3.9% from 3.5%, the biggest monthly increase since March of this year. A “disorderly bond sell-off” is now the top market tail risk. Investors remain bullish, however, on corporate earnings, the AI investment cycle, and economic growth. U.S. Treasury yields have faced upward pressure throughout September, driven by persistent signs of inflation and elevated crude oil prices, reinforcing expectations of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached the highest level in about two decades today.
U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in August as households boosted purchases of a range of goods while also spending more at restaurants and bars, reinforcing the economy’s resilience even as consumers grow more anxious about high inflation. The reports followed data this month showing producer and consumer prices accelerated in August, while the labor market regained its poise after wobbling through much of summer.
Home contract signings improved slightly from July to August but slumped compared with a year ago, a sign of buyers’ sensitivity to higher mortgage rates. Pending home sales, a measure of homes going under contract, climbed 0.3% in August from a month earlier but are down 4.7% from last year, according to National Association of Realtors data. Economists surveyed expected a more modest 3.9% year-over-year drop.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Sept. 11, 2026 | Sept. 18, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,358.48 | $4,393.48 | 35.00 | 0.80% |
| Silver | $64.46 | $66.76 | 2.30 | 3.57% |
| Platinum | $1,792.42 | $1,807.36 | 14.94 | 0.83% |
| Palladium | $1,304.70 | $1,312.16 | 7.46 | 0.57% |
| Dow | 52572.81 | 51682.64 | -890.17 | -1.69% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Sept. 19, 2025 | Sept. 18, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,678.72 | $4,393.48 | 714.76 | 19.43% |
| Silver | $42.90 | $66.76 | 23.86 | 55.62% |
| Platinum | $1,410.94 | $1,807.36 | 396.42 | 28.10% |
| Palladium | $1,154.63 | $1,312.16 | 157.53 | 13.64% |
| Dow | 46314.57 | 51682.64 | 5368.07 | 11.59% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 4281/4214/4134 | 65.23/62.13/59.79 |
| Resistance | 4429/4510/4576 | 67.58/70.68/73.02 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1734/1670/1572 | 1248/1194/1111 |
| Resistance | 1897/1994/2059 | 1385/1467/1522 |