1. Tech stocks led the stock market higher on Monday as oil prices fell, and chip stocks rallied ahead of AI leaders’ dinner with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite saw the strongest gains, climbing 1.5% as semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500, meanwhile, gained 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% after the blue-chip index posted its third straight weekly loss. Sentiment went risk-on during Monday’s trading session as oil prices retreated below $100 per barrel amid hopes that the U.S. and Iran would resume diplomatic talks. Stocks have powered through a wall of worry during this historically weak month, remaining resilient despite rising bond yields, geopolitical risk in the Middle East, growing bets on Fed rate hikes, and AI jitters.
2. Gold’s traditional relationship with real interest rates is weakening, and while higher U.S. rates and a potentially stronger dollar could keep prices volatile in the near term, Standard Chartered sees structural forces providing a solid floor under the precious metal. In her latest precious metals report, Suki Cooper, Global Head of Commodities Research at Standard Chartered Bank, noted that gold has already recovered from its losses following the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate hike last week and is looking for technical support around its 50-day moving average. Cooper said the market’s focus appears to be shifting from short-term monetary policy toward broader concerns surrounding de-dollarization, currency debasement, and the risk of market intervention. While gold remains volatile, she said official-sector demand continues to provide consistent downside support and that structural drivers remain in place to push prices higher, although potentially at a slower pace. Standard Chartered said gold investment demand is showing renewed momentum even as bond yields remain elevated.
3. Some concerning activity lies below the surface of a market that has made resilience its hallmark in the face of rising risks this year. Downside volume on the New York Stock Exchange as a percentage of total volume has surged to 54% and is near year-to-date highs. What’s more, small-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 are down more than 5% from their highs. Since 1996, this is the 12th time this occurrence has happened. The activity suggests investors are slowly losing confidence in a market being hit by higher oil prices, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and now likely another Fed rate increase before year-end. The S&P 500 is sitting roughly 3% below its historic record peak of 7,798.99 set on Aug. 13. Meanwhile, tech-heavy megacaps continue to anchor market stability, leaving the benchmark index up approximately 11.7% year to date.
4. U.S. consumer sentiment slipped to a four-month low in September amid worries that rising inflation would erode households’ purchasing power, a survey showed on Friday. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a final reading of 48.1 this month from 51.7 in August. This was, however, an improvement from a preliminary reading of 47.8. Economists polled had forecast the index at 47.6.
5. In the week ending September 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 197,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 196,000 to 198,000. The 4-week moving average was 202,250, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 203,250 to 204,000.
6. Oil prices fell more than 1% on Friday as markets weighed the possibility of a truce between the U.S. and Iran against concerns that increasing attacks against Saudi Arabia by Houthi fighters could disrupt supply from the key Middle Eastern producer. Brent was down $1.34, or 1.3%, at $105.26 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was $1.83, or 1.9%, lower at $92.78 a barrel.
7. The Euro trades marginally lower at around 1.1375 against the U.S. Dollar in the early European trade on Friday but is inside Thursday’s trading range. The major currency pair is broadly under pressure as the Dollar outperforms across the board. At press time, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to its eight-week high of 101.40 posted on Thursday.
8. The Japanese Yen pares losses against the U.S. Dollar on Friday, as Japanese yields escalate, narrowing the gap with Treasury yields, while Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama defended the independence of the Bank of Japan. The USD/JPY pair has retreated to the mid-range of the 157.00s at the time of writing, from three-week highs above 159.00 earlier in the week.
Gold’s fair value has already reached $5,000 per ounce as the yellow metal has transitioned from a rate-based to a liquidity-based trade, according to Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments. “Gold gained ground last week as the global liquidity profile has started to recover,” Timmer wrote in an analysis on Monday. “Based on my Gold & Liquidity regression between global M2 and gold, gold is worth around $5k.” Timmer shared a chart which he said, “illustrates how gold has gone from a pure play on real rates to a pure play on liquidity,” with his model showing gold already worth $5,000 per ounce. Earlier in September, Timmer spelled out his reasoning for this liquidity-based valuation of gold. “It’s telling that the Treasury’s actions last week to buy back more long-dated paper and issue more Bills took down the dollar and caused both gold and Bitcoin to soar,” he wrote. “The market senses a slippery slope towards fiscal dominance and a possible loss in Fed independence. The assumption here is that for the Treasury to be successful in keeping yields down, it will need to significantly increase the size of the buybacks. That might require the Fed to become complicit in this operation twist, which takes us down the debasement path.” Loose fiscal policy combined with loose monetary policy is a clear negative for the dollar (which is sitting on a long-term trendline), and a clear positive for gold.
The rate on the most popular home loan rose last week to its highest in more than two years, after the Federal Reserve lifted short-term interest rates to combat inflation. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped 15 basis points to 7.12% in the week ended September 18, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. It was last higher in May 2024. Mortgage rates track U.S. Treasury yields, which are sensitive to oil prices and the threat they pose to inflation, which has been running above the Fed’s 2% goal for 5-1/2 years. The rise in mortgage rates last week led to a decline in refinancing and home purchase applications, the MBA said, and drove more borrowers into adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer lower upfront borrowing costs than fixed-rate mortgages and reset after several years to whatever the going rate is at the time. ARMs accounted for 9.8% of mortgage applications last week.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Sept. 18, 2026 | Sept. 25, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,393.48 | $4,283.29 | -110.19 | -2.51% |
| Silver | $66.76 | $64.26 | -2.50 | -3.74% |
| Platinum | $1,807.36 | $1,776.71 | -30.65 | -1.70% |
| Palladium | $1,312.16 | $1,271.81 | -40.35 | -3.08% |
| Dow | 51682.64 | 51812.13 | 129.49 | 0.25% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Sept. 26, 2025 | Sept. 25, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,782.39 | $4,283.29 | 500.90 | 13.24% |
| Silver | $46.59 | $64.26 | 17.67 | 37.93% |
| Platinum | $1,571.50 | $1,776.71 | 205.21 | 13.06% |
| Palladium | $1,284.81 | $1,271.81 | -13.00 | -1.01% |
| Dow | 46246.09 | 51812.13 | 5566.04 | 12.04% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 4275/4172/4110 | 63.22/60.20/58.09 |
| Resistance | 4440/4502/4604 | 68.36/70.46/73.49 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1749/1695/1656 | 1264/1225/1187 |
| Resistance | 1841/1879/1933 | 1341/1378/1417 |