1. Coming off a relatively quiet past week in the markets, investors step into a packed five-day stretch as second-quarter earnings kick off in force, with a healthy selection of economic data releases on the calendar to boot. On the economic data front, Consumer Price Index data on Tuesday and Producer Price Index data on Wednesday are set to give investors a slate of readings on the state of U.S. inflation, and the University of Michigan’s bimonthly check on consumer sentiment comes out Friday. After a blowout first quarter earnings season that exceeded expectations throughout Wall Street and Main Street alike, investors are looking for another standout set of results — and a return on the AI investment. This means a high bar to clear for Q2.
2. Actions speak louder than words. That old cliché should be one of the defining themes in the gold market through the second half of the year. Last month, two central bank surveys delivered an unmistakable message. The World Gold Council found that a record 45% of central banks expect to increase their own gold reserves over the next 12 months, while the annual survey showed that reserve managers continue to rank gold among their preferred reserve assets. The latest reserve data show that central banks aren’t merely expressing confidence in gold; they are acting on their convictions. The World Gold Council reported that central banks added 41 tons of gold to official reserves in May, continuing what has become a multi-year trend of robust sovereign demand. Then, as gold prices extended their correction in June, some of the market’s largest official buyers became even more active. That point deserves more attention because it stands in sharp contrast to sentiment among retail investors. Speculative traders have left the gold market in search of momentum in AI stocks, while investors have liquidated their holdings as opportunity costs have risen. But at what point do investors start following the path that central banks are laying out?
3. That point deserves more attention because it stands in sharp contrast to sentiment among retail investors. Speculative traders have left the gold market in search of momentum in AI stocks, while investors have liquidated their holdings as opportunity costs have risen. But at what point do investors start following the path that central banks are laying out? AI spending is likely to keep prices rising more quickly than the Federal Reserve would like. Americans are already seeing higher prices for a range of consumer electronics, including laptops, smartphones, video game consoles, and computers. Electricity prices are also jumping as data centers absorb a growing share of new electrical capacity. “The rapid expansion of AI data centers has created an extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storage,” Apple said in a statement. “We have never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly.” While prices for computer chips could peak this year and then decline, experts expect electricity demand from AI will push up utility costs into 2028 or even beyond. In February, economists at Goldman Sachs forecast that electricity prices will rise 6% this year and next, and an above-average 3% in 2028.
4. New data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits fell unexpectedly in the week ended July 11. Initial jobless claims totaled 208,000, down 8,000 from the revised figure of 216,000 recorded in the previous week. The latest reading came in below economists’ expectations, as analysts had forecast claims would rise to 220,000 from the originally reported 215,000.
5. Oil prices inched up on Friday after the U.S. and Iran stepped up attacks across the Gulf, with their broken truce limiting oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose 7 cents, or about 0.08%, to $84.30 a barrel at 0632 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $79.11 a barrel. Both benchmark contracts have climbed nearly 12% this week, with Brent on track for a third consecutive weekly gain and WTI on pace for a second weekly gain.
6. EUR/USD trades flat on Friday as traders reassess the inflationary impact of surging Oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1438 and is on track to end the week with modest gains.
7. USD/JPY trades flat on Friday, holding near four-decade highs as the Japanese Yen struggles to attract buyers amid persistent headwinds, including higher Oil prices, Japan’s wide interest-rate gap with other major economies, and a resilient U.S. Dollar. The Yen found brief support after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi echoed Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s call to encourage greater investment in Japanese financial assets by households and pensions.
Growth in consumer prices cooled more than expected in June, as drivers saw some relief at the pump. The Consumer Price Index, released Tuesday, showed inflation declined 0.4% on a monthly basis in June, the largest single-month decline since April 2020. Annual inflation also eased to 3.5%, the government said, in the lowest yearly reading since March. Economists surveyed had expected inflation to fall just 0.1% from May and rise 3.8% from a year ago, a moderation from May’s bruising report as gas prices eased thanks to a now-disintegrating ceasefire in the war with Iran. On a “core” basis, stripping out volatile energy and food categories, price growth slid to 2.6% on an annual basis, and was flat for the month. Economists saw inflation rising 0.2% from May and 2.8% from last year.
U.S. Treasuries surged as traders pulled back from bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes after consumer prices data came in lower than forecast. The yield on two-year Treasuries, which are sensitive to the near-term outlook for Fed monetary policy — fell as much as 14 basis points to 4.14% and was headed for its biggest one-day decline since February. The probability that the U.S. central bank raises rates later this month, as implied by the interest-rate swap market, fell to about 20% from more than 40%.
Changes in some corners of the U.S. track with recent jobs reports that have shown steady payroll gains, an improvement from the doldrums of 2025. The unemployment rate in June also slid to 4.2%. Federal Reserve policymakers preparing for their next policy meeting in two weeks got a fresh snapshot on Wednesday of a broadly improving economy, with employment on the rise but not straining wage bills, and inflation is easing slightly. The labor market appears to be picking up steam in some parts of the country, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book. Across the Federal Reserve’s 12 districts, five reported “modest, moderate, or solid gains in employment” in May and June, up from just one district at that status in the previous reporting period.
Mortgage rates rose above 6.5% this week as the United States and Iran escalated attacks, and oil prices jumped. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.55% this week through Wednesday, up from 6.49% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac data. The average 15-year mortgage rate was 5.93%, up from 5.82%. Current mortgage rates appear to be discouraging home buyers and sellers. Mortgage applications dropped last week through Friday, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Housing contract activity also slipped last month.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Jul. 10, 2026 | Jul. 17, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,101.11 | $4,009.85 | -91.26 | -2.23% |
| Silver | $59.56 | $55.94 | -3.62 | -6.08% |
| Platinum | $1,620.99 | $1,599.92 | -21.07 | -1.30% |
| Palladium | $1,273.47 | $1,251.32 | -22.15 | -1.74% |
| Dow | 52637.09 | 52146.42 | -490.67 | -0.93% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Jul. 18, 2025 | Jul. 17, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,352.03 | $4,009.85 | 657.82 | 19.62% |
| Silver | $38.28 | $55.94 | 17.66 | 46.13% |
| Platinum | $1,438.50 | $1,599.92 | 161.42 | 11.22% |
| Palladium | $1,269.05 | $1,251.32 | -17.73 | -1.40% |
| Dow | 44342.19 | 52146.42 | 7804.23 | 17.60% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 4006/4001/3995 | 56.96/54.05/50.89 |
| Resistance | 4016/4023/4027 | 63.02/66.18/69.08 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1576/1522/1475 | 1223/1166/1130 |
| Resistance | 1677/1723/1777 | 1316/1352/1409 |