1. Oil prices fell on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to further increase its output targets from August, while exports from key producers via the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, potentially adding to global supplies. Brent crude futures fell 47 cents, or 0.65%, to $71.65 a barrel after settling 0.45% higher on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $68.19 a barrel, down 50 cents, or 0.73%. There was no settlement for WTI on Friday as U.S. markets were closed ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Saturday. The downward move is still influenced by earlier stranded tankers that have managed to exit the Gulf, resulting in an increase in oil on the water.
2. Although gold prices have been unable to break initial resistance above $4,200, one market strategist expects the worst of the selling pressure from the months-long correction may now be over. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said he believes the price action in the gold market is shifting from liquidation to consolidation and base-building. “The sector has moved from being aggressively bid to selectively accumulated, and the next move will likely depend on whether macro conditions continue to ease or once again turn hostile,” he said in his Monday note. Hansen added that gold continues to be driven by market expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy. Although markets still expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates this year, aggressive forecasts have been pared back following last week’s disappointing employment data, which showed that only 57,000 jobs were created in June. Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,200.00 to $4,260.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,370.00 and then $4,500.00.
3. The dollar advanced on Tuesday, following two straight sessions of slight declines. At the same time, the yen held near a four-decade low, as investors continued to watch for signs of possible intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, gained 0.12% to 100.98, with the euro down 0.11% at $1.1426. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said that he has grown a little less worried about the state of price pressures in the economy due to the recent retreat in energy prices, which he expects to continue. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said the outlook for the euro zone economy remains fragile and called for monetary policy decisions to be tested against a range of scenarios given the major shifts in the global economy.
4. When it comes to personal finance, artificial intelligence gives advice that can be inaccurate or demographically biased depending on the program that consumers use, according to a new academic research study. Researchers examined free-access versions of ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, DeepSeek, Gemini, Meta AI, and Perplexity. “GenAI-driven responses may sound confident but can still be incomplete, misleading, or incorrect,” according to the paper. The findings come as a large share of Americans are turning to AI to help manage their money. Two out of three Americans, 66% — who have used GenAI said they’ve leveraged it for financial advice, according to a survey. The share is higher for Gen Z and millennials, at 82% for each cohort. It has limitations that mean users shouldn’t trust its output blindly.
5. In September, Google walked away from a $1 billion data center outside Indianapolis, pulling its Franklin Township proposal minutes before the city-county council was set to vote it down. It wasn’t an isolated incident. Communities across the United States have now blocked or delayed more than $130 billion in AI data centers in the first three months of 2026, refusing projects the industry’s biggest names assumed they could build anywhere. The rejections are coming faster now, and they seem to follow the same general script. The complaints rhyme from town to town: higher electricity bills to cover the grid upgrades a hyperscaler like Amazon or Google needs, and millions of gallons of water routed to cooling. Fights that would have been a formality two years ago now stretch on for months in Virginia, Texas, Indiana, and Georgia.
6. The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the labor market remained stable despite a slowdown in job growth in June. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ended July 4, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled had forecasted 218,000 claims for the latest week.
7. Crude oil held above $72 per barrel on Friday and remained on track for a weekly gain of nearly 5% as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes delayed a full recovery in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency warned that a prolonged conflict could disrupt efforts to rebuild global oil inventories later this year after recent supply losses. However, the United Arab Emirates raised crude production to a record high last month, highlighting efforts by Gulf producers to offset disruptions.
8. The Euro has given away most of the daily gains against the U.S. Dollar on Friday, returning to the 1.1430 area from session highs at 1.1475, which leaves the pair practically flat on the daily chart. Soft economic data from Eurozone countries, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty and higher Oil prices, is posing a significant weight on the Euro rallies.
9. USD/JPY falls toward 161.80 on Friday, down 0.37% at the time of writing, as the Japanese Yen benefits from an unexpected shift in the Japanese government’s stance on domestic asset allocation. The Japanese currency is also supported by a modest pullback in the U.S. Dollar as markets scale back expectations for further monetary tightening in the United States.
U.S. stock futures fell as oil surged after it was declared that the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran was “over,” raising the likelihood of a re-escalation in the Middle East war. Futures tied to the Dow fell 1%, or nearly 600 points, while contracts on the S&P 500 dropped 0.8%. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 1.3% following a down day for the stock market. Energy markets have been shaken after the Treasury revoked a license that had allowed Iran to export oil globally, adding to concerns over potential supply disruptions. Crude prices climbed more than 5%, with West Texas Intermediate trading above $74 a barrel and Brent at $78 a barrel. Attention now shifts to Wednesday afternoon’s release of minutes from the Fed’s June meeting. Investors will parse the document for clues about policymakers’ thinking after the Fed held interest rates steady at its first meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh.
A few Federal Reserve officials thought there was a case to raise interest rates at the June policy meeting. But most saw two paths this year, holding or hiking, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday. If inflation dissipates, most officials favor holding rates steady or eventually lowering them. Several members didn’t see the current level of interest rates restricting the economy, while a few others thought the rates were slightly restrictive. Some participants thought productivity gains associated with AI would eventually reduce production costs and increase supply, which should put downward pressure on inflation. However, they noted this effect would likely take time to materialize. The majority of the Fed also saw advantages to shortening the policy statement. In particular, it allowed them to drop previous guidance that signaled their next move would be a rate cut.
Home sales underwhelmed in June, a fresh sign of how sensitive buyers and sellers are to small changes in mortgage rates and affordability as prices hit fresh all-time highs. Sales of existing homes dropped 2.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million, according to National Association of Realtors data. Economists were expecting a modest increase to 4.2 million. Compared to last year, when mortgage rates were even higher, sales improved by 2.8%. Activity compared to June 2025 increased in all parts of the country except the Northeast, where it was flat. Overall, momentum appears to be slightly better compared to a year ago.
Mortgage rates moved higher this week. The average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.49% this week through Wednesday, according to Freddie Mac data, up from 6.43% a week earlier. Treasury yields, which mortgage rates track closely, have moved higher in recent days amid new fears that higher oil prices will lead to prolonged inflation. “Mortgage rates looked like they were poised for a retreat in recent weeks, but the deterioration of the situation in Iran has put them on an upward trajectory yet again,” Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner said in a statement.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Jul. 3, 2026 | Jul. 10, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,175.92 | $4,101.11 | -74.81 | -1.79% |
| Silver | $62.41 | $59.56 | -2.85 | -4.57% |
| Platinum | $1,622.33 | $1,620.99 | -1.34 | -0.08% |
| Palladium | $1,247.58 | $1,273.47 | 25.89 | 2.08% |
| Dow | 52900.07 | 52637.09 | -262.98 | -0.50% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Jul. 11, 2025 | Jul. 10, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,353.47 | $4,101.11 | 747.64 | 22.29% |
| Silver | $38.46 | $59.56 | 21.10 | 54.86% |
| Platinum | $1,408.00 | $1,620.99 | 212.99 | 15.13% |
| Palladium | $1,225.07 | $1,273.47 | 48.40 | 3.95% |
| Dow | 44371.32 | 52637.09 | 8265.77 | 18.63% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 4105/4014/3853 | 58.36/54.30/52.01 |
| Resistance | 4266/4356/4517 | 64.71/67.01/71.07 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1615/1561/1480 | 1248/1205/1134 |
| Resistance | 1696/1750/1831 | 1319/1362/1433 |