1. After a roller-coaster week in the markets, thanks to flip-flopping sentiment about AI spending, investors will get plenty more action on the calendar as we enter jobs week. On Friday, the S&P 500 and the Dow finished down 0.1%, as the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Markets await a bunch of key checks on the American consumer. The June jobs report on Thursday (not Friday) will shape the week, but a suite of jobs data (job openings, ADP private payrolls, and layoff plans) will make for a steady drumbeat of economic data, along with a consumer sentiment check and economic activity data from S&P Global and ISM. The short week: markets are closed on Friday for the Fourth of July weekend.
2. Gold’s disappointing performance over the past four months may not signal the end of the precious metal’s rally this year. “Gold is not done,” Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research Samantha Dart said in a note on Sunday evening. Noting that the precious metal has gained 123% since 2022, Dart and her team wrote, “we continue to see further upside, driven by both structural and eventually cyclical factors.” The researchers also noted that a recent World Gold Council survey said a record 45% of the 76 central banks surveyed between February and May expect to increase their own gold reserves over the next 12 months. “Over the medium term, risks to our gold price forecast remain skewed to the upside on net,” wrote Dart, as broader macro developments eventually accelerate private diversification into gold, including concerns over Western fiscal sustainability. Investors worry that even as crude prices have retreated, sticky inflation and a resilient labor market could prompt the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for longer or even raise them before the year ends.
3. In its Annual Economic Report, published on Sunday, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), known as the central bank for central banks, warned that the enormous spending on AI is accumulating financial vulnerabilities that could amplify any future shock and spread from markets into the wider economy. At the core of the warning is the scale of the spending, despite massive investment having supported global growth over the past year. The five largest “hyperscalers”, the technology giants racing to build AI infrastructure, are on track to commit more than $1 trillion (€878bn) to AI-related investment across 2025 and 2026, a pace that is outstripping their earnings and free cash flow and pushing some to borrow heavily to keep up. The BIS suggests this race is fueled by a belief that only a handful of dominant players will ultimately prevail, encouraging firms to pour money into projects whose returns remain deeply uncertain.
4. Job openings continued to beat expectations in May, though the hiring rate remained low, new data shows. Last month, 7.6 million positions were available, matching April’s levels, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday. Economists surveyed had predicted 7.3 million openings in May. The quits rate, at 1.9%, was unchanged, as was the hiring rate, at 3.3%. Layoffs ticked up slightly, though job cut rates have now hovered between 1% and 1.2% since July 2024.
5. In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,000, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 224,250 to 224,500.
6. Oil futures were on track to post their fourth consecutive weekly loss early on Friday as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the uptick in oil flows weigh down prices. In Asian trade early on Friday, with U.S. markets closed for the July 4 weekend, both benchmarks, Brent and WTI, were gaining about 0.5% on some profit-taking. Over the past three weeks, prices have slumped to nearly pre-war levels, with Brent now in the low $70s per barrel and WTI Crude trading below $70.
7. EUR/USD holds on to its recent gains and consolidates around 1.1440 at the end of the week as the U.S. Dollar lacks clear direction. In the meantime, trading conditions remain subdued, with volatility constrained by the closure of markets for the Independence Day holiday.
8. The USD/JPY pair turns lower for the second straight day following an intraday uptick to mid-161.00s and drops to a more than two-week low during the first half of the European session on Friday. Spot prices, however, recover a few pips in the last hour and currently trade just below the 161.00 mark, down by over 0.15% for the day.
More of the world’s central banks plan to cut dollar allocations than increase them in the coming decade as political risks associated with the U.S. currency rise. It is the first time the survey has found such a shift away from the dollar. Survey participants, who collectively oversee some $10 trillion in assets, increasingly viewed volatility as a permanent feature and are testing new approaches to dealing with it, including applying AI to the problem. There is no clear alternative to the dollar, and it has rallied 3% this year, driven by higher U.S. interest rates, a thirst for U.S. assets and a flight to safety sparked by the U.S.-Iran war. However, some 79% of central banks, and 60% of public funds, believe the global monetary system is transitioning towards a “multipolar” world. Gold, which has hit a series of record-high prices and is held by 82% of central banks, “has moved to the center of reserve management strategy,” the survey found. In the short term, it is the asset in which central banks plan most to increase holdings, with a net 30% of respondents intending to boost their allocation over the next one to two years.
Bitcoin slid on Tuesday, putting the token on track for its worst monthly performance since June 2022. Bitcoin has been in a sustained downward trend after tumbling from its all-time high in early October, with selling pressure and forced liquidations echoing patterns seen in prior cycle drawdowns. While bitcoin is down roughly 52% from its record peak, analysts have noted the downturn has unfolded without the major bankruptcies that defined previous crypto bear markets. The downturn has been exacerbated by concerns about a rate hike by the Federal Reserve and by dwindling liquidity if the central bank tightens monetary policy.
The U.S. dollar rallied to a 13-month high as a major slide in the Japanese yen further strengthened the greenback’s outlook ahead of widely expected Federal Reserve rate hikes. The Dollar Index, which measures the performance of the greenback against a basket of other currencies, has now returned 3.1% year-to-date, with roughly two-thirds of that rally occurring in the past month as the yen slid and rate-hike bets increased. Higher interest rates tend to strengthen the dollar because they increase the returns investors can earn on dollar-denominated assets such as Treasury bonds, attracting foreign capital. As demand for those assets rises, so does demand for dollars, which can push the currency higher relative to others.
The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs last month, fewer than economists had anticipated, government data shows. The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.2%, its lowest level in a year. Economists surveyed had expected the Labor Department’s employment situation report to post a gain of 113,000 jobs at the year’s midway point, with the unemployment rate remaining flat at 4.3% for the fourth consecutive month, after a string of better-than-predicted government data releases and a mixed week for private data.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Jun. 26, 2026 | Jul. 3, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,075.82 | $4,175.92 | 100.10 | 2.46% |
| Silver | $59.03 | $62.41 | 3.38 | 5.73% |
| Platinum | $1,631.31 | $1,622.33 | -8.98 | -0.55% |
| Palladium | $1,211.68 | $1,247.58 | 35.90 | 2.96% |
| Dow | 51859.39 | 52900.07 | 1040.68 | 2.01% |
Month End to Month End Close
| May. 29, 2026 | Jun. 30, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,553.54 | $4,039.59 | -513.95 | -11.29% |
| Silver | $75.40 | $59.61 | -15.79 | -20.94% |
| Platinum | $1,920.50 | $1,555.85 | -364.65 | -18.99% |
| Palladium | $1,352.05 | $1,207.92 | -144.13 | -10.66% |
| Dow | 51032.52 | 52317.81 | 1285.29 | 2.52% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Jul. 3, 2025 | Jul. 3, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,329.22 | $4,175.92 | 846.70 | 25.43% |
| Silver | $36.88 | $62.41 | 25.53 | 69.22% |
| Platinum | $1,377.19 | $1,622.33 | 245.14 | 17.80% |
| Palladium | $1,142.47 | $1,247.58 | 105.11 | 9.20% |
| Dow | 44828.53 | 52900.07 | 8071.54 | 18.01% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 4089/3958/3828 | 60.65/54.14/49.11 |
| Resistance | 4220/4351/4481 | 65.69/72.19/77.23 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1541/1464/1381 | 1220/1146/1079 |
| Resistance | 1700/1783/1860 | 1287/1362/1429 |