1. U.S. stocks turned lower on Monday as U.S.-Iran tensions resurfaced, lifting oil prices, and Treasury yields jumped to start an economic data-packed week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.7%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.5%. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose to $98 per barrel. Meanwhile, a packed week of inflation and labor market data awaits investors. From the Personal Consumption Expenditures report on Wednesday to the monthly employment report on Friday, investors will field new insights on the health of the economy.
2. By almost every traditional correlation, gold should be substantially lower than it is today, and the fact that it isn’t is telling us something loud and clear. The Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy, the U.S. dollar is strengthening, and the 10-year Treasury yield has surged to around 5.2%, its highest level in 20 years. World Gold Council modeling suggests that, all else being equal, every 25-basis-point increase in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield translates into roughly a 1.75% decline in gold. With yields surging higher, gold prices should be well below $4,000 an ounce. Instead, gold has been holding around $4,300. This resilience underscores just how dramatically the precious metal has diverged from its traditional relationship with interest rates. Of course, gold is not immune to higher yields. Prices are down more than 2% this week and have fallen sharply from their recent highs. Rising real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, while a stronger U.S. dollar creates another significant headwind. But considering the magnitude of these pressures, gold’s losses remain remarkably contained.
3. Yields on the longer end of the curve rose further to multidecade highs on Monday as a bond sell-off deepened. The 10-year Treasury yield, often referred to as the most critical number in global finance for its widespread use as a benchmark rate, advanced roughly 5 basis points to 5.25%, its highest level since 2007, when yields rose in the run-up to the Great Financial Crisis. Further out on the curve, 30-year Treasury yields advanced by 6 basis points to 5.57%, a level not touched since 2004. The short end was also under pressure, as the 2-year yield rose by roughly 8 basis points to 4.93%.
4. Consumer confidence plunged in September, falling below expectations as investors face a wave of headwinds. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 81.9 from the previous month’s reading of 88.6, which was revised down from 89.4, according to data published Tuesday. Economists had been looking for a sharply higher reading of 89. Sticky inflation remains in focus for U.S. households facing growing price pressures, and concerns about elevated energy prices featured prominently in the survey’s comments.
5. A weak September jobs report is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on hold later this month, even as Fed officials are still likely to view the job market as balanced at full employment and keep their focus squarely on bringing inflation down. The economy added 29,000 jobs in September, falling far short of the 88,000 expected and down from a revised 133,000 in August. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%.
6. The Labor Department reported Thursday that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 197,000 for the week ending September 26, the lowest reading since mid-July. The prior week’s figure was revised up by 1,000, from 197,000 to 198,000. The four-week moving average of claims slipped 2,500 to land at 200,000, a level that irons out the noise of weekly fluctuations. That figure was also revised up by 250 from the prior week, to 202,500.
7. A drop in oil prices helped take some pressure off bond markets worldwide. The price for a barrel of Brent crude fell 2% to $100.24. It’s been swinging sharply on uncertainty about when the war with Iran will allow the global oil industry to return to normal. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil shipments in September jumped to the highest level since the start of the Iran war, after the country accelerated exports through the Strait of Hormuz following the attack on its key East-West pipeline two weeks ago. Overall, Saudi exports reportedly jumped to 5.28M bbl/day so far in September, the highest rate since February and up sharply from August. The sales flurry would more than double the recent flows of Saudi crude from the Hormuz route to Asia.
8. The U.S. Dollar had yet another positive week, appreciating sharply against most of its major rivals. The EUR/USD pair fell for a fourth consecutive week and traded as low as 1.1215, a level last seen in May 2025. As the weekend approaches, the pair hovers around 1.1280 as the Dollar Index eases from an over one-year high.
9. USD/JPY trades around 157.65 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.28% on the day. The pair briefly dropped to 156.95 following the release of the United States employment report before erasing the entire move and returning to pre-release levels. The rebound is mainly driven by renewed weakness in the Japanese Yen, while the Dollar Index remains close to its daily lows.
A fresh reading on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge released Wednesday showed prices cooled more than expected in August and is likely to quell some of the urgency for another interest rate hike next month. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index rose 3.4% in August, less than expectations for 3.7%, a level held for much of the summer. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, core PCE rose 3%, beating expectations for a rise of 3.3% and marking a drop from 3.3% in July. Month over month, core PCE inched down a tenth of a percentage point to 0.2% from July and beat expectations of a 0.3% rise.
Private sector hiring picked up in September, according to payroll processor ADP, helped by continued strength in fields like education and healthcare. Private companies added 90,000 jobs this month, an improvement from a revised 36,000 jobs in August, new data released on Wednesday showed. Economists surveyed expected a gain of 75,000 jobs. Workers also saw healthy pay growth, with base wages rising 3.2% year over year, and gross pay up 4.7%. Job changers saw even bigger gains. “This is a strong report,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said. “After a three-month slight slowdown, this is the first re-acceleration that we’ve seen since May.”
U.S. Treasury bonds are on track for their worst September since 2023, and history suggests next month may not be much better as oil prices remain elevated and investors price in more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year. Yields on the longer end of the curve have risen to multidecade highs over the past weeks. On Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield, used as a benchmark for mortgage rates and other borrowing costs, stood at 5.24%. The 30-year Treasury yield hovered near 5.56%, while the 2-year yield stood near 4.93%. While the stock market hasn’t fallen off a cliff, Wall Street is watching for the 10-year critical threshold. While September has been a brutal month for bond prices, which move inversely to yields, October typically isn’t much kinder. Over the past decade, Treasuries have posted a median loss of 0.9% in September and 0.7% in October, according to the data. That seasonal pattern is now colliding with a market already under pressure.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Sept. 25, 2026 | Oct. 2, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,283.29 | $4,137.35 | -145.94 | -3.41% |
| Silver | $64.26 | $60.22 | -4.04 | -6.29% |
| Platinum | $1,776.71 | $1,688.39 | -88.32 | -4.97% |
| Palladium | $1,271.81 | $1,166.36 | -105.45 | -8.29% |
| Dow | 51812.13 | 51177.44 | -634.69 | -1.22% |
Month End to Month End Close
| Aug. 31, 2026 | Sept. 30, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,436.63 | $4,151.83 | -284.80 | -6.42% |
| Silver | $66.37 | $60.18 | -6.19 | -9.33% |
| Platinum | $1,783.87 | $1,700.47 | -83.40 | -4.68% |
| Palladium | $1,365.75 | $1,207.46 | -158.29 | -11.59% |
| Dow | 53185.90 | 50906.05 | -2279.85 | -4.29% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Oct. 3, 2025 | Oct. 2, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,881.89 | $4,137.35 | 255.46 | 6.58% |
| Silver | $47.84 | $60.22 | 12.38 | 25.88% |
| Platinum | $1,601.24 | $1,688.39 | 87.15 | 5.44% |
| Palladium | $1,265.75 | $1,166.36 | -99.39 | -7.85% |
| Dow | 46761.72 | 51177.44 | 4415.72 | 9.44% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 4225/4163/4082 | 62.39/60.49/57.91 |
| Resistance | 4368/4449/4511 | 64.97/66.88/69.46 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1725/1669/1608 | 1233/1196/1145 |
| Resistance | 1841/1902/1958 | 1321/1372/1409 |