1. Stocks dipped, while the dollar edged up on Monday as investors fretted that talks between the U.S. and Iran were at a stalemate, leaving the vital Strait of Hormuz virtually closed, which sent oil prices up again. Brent crude futures, which are around 45% higher than before the U.S. and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28, jumped as much as 4.6% overnight and were last at $103.75 a barrel, up 2.4% on the day. The correlation between oil prices and stock markets has turned positive in the last two weeks, meaning the two are more likely to move in tandem than in opposite directions, which had been the dynamic for most of the war so far. Investors are looking beyond energy prices for now, given still-strong enthusiasm for anything tech-related, as well as macro data, including last week’s U.S. payrolls report – showing the global economy is holding up. If you’re looking at the earnings data, it’s really good. And were it not for the Iran situation, we would be really firing on all cylinders, even more so than we are. The dollar edged 0.3% to 157.12 yen, while the euro fell 0.12% to $1.177. Sterling lost 0.32% to trade at $1.36.
2. Silver is perking up; copper just hit a record, and gold is sitting out the move. Silver futures and copper futures have been rallying hand-in-hand lately, while gold futures have drifted lower. The metals market is drawing a line between safe-haven demand and hard-infrastructure demand, and right now, the AI build-out is showing up on the copper-and-silver side. Copper is the stronger tell. The metal hit an all-time intraday high on Tuesday and has rallied roughly 55% since the March 30 stock market low. Data centers don’t run on chips alone. They need power, wiring, cooling systems, backup equipment, grid upgrades, and physical construction. Copper is the obvious beneficiary. Silver’s role is less obvious to general investors, but it has heavy industrial uses too, especially in electronics, electrical equipment, and solar.
3. U.S. consumer prices continued their rapid ascent in April as the war in Iran pressured global fuel and food costs, government data released Tuesday showed. The Consumer Price Index for April showed prices were 3.8% higher than a year ago, the largest annual increase in three years, and up 0.6% on a monthly basis, largely due to soaring energy costs. Economists had expected a rise of 3.7% from last April, according to a survey, and a 0.6% increase from March, which itself saw the largest monthly gain since 2022. Stripping out the more volatile energy and food categories, prices on a “core” basis also ticked up more than expected, rising 2.8% in April from a year ago and 0.4% from the month prior. Economists had anticipated a yearly increase of 2.7% and a monthly rise of 0.3%, slightly hotter than March’s reading.
4. The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, pointing to a stable labor market even as rising energy prices from the war with Iran drive up inflation. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended May 9, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled had forecasted 205,000 claims for the latest week.
5. Oil rose as the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war in limbo, prolonging disruptions that have upended global markets. West Texas Intermediate was near $105 a barrel, while Brent crude traded around $109 a barrel. Brent is on track to finish the week up about 8%, and above $100 a barrel for the fourth consecutive week.
6. EUR/USD remains well on the defensive, extending its weekly leg lower to the 1.1620-1.1615 band on Friday, or new five-week troughs. Meanwhile, the pair continues to suffer the broad-based strength of the Greenback and a cautious market mood, as firm inflation data reinforces expectations of a tighter Fed policy stance in the next few months.
7. The USD/JPY pair extends its winning streak for the fifth trading day on Friday, trading 0.11% higher to near 158.60 during the early European trading session. The pair extends its advance as the U.S. Dollar outperforms due to signs of improving trade relations between the United States and China, and firm speculation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year.
Gold and silver continue to draw support from solid longer-term fundamentals through the second quarter, but one investment firm said the market is still waiting for a clear macroeconomic trigger before either metal can break decisively higher. It has been noted that gold has struggled to behave like a traditional safe-haven asset despite heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Rather than pushing investors toward bullion, the latest flare-ups have driven oil prices higher, feeding inflation expectations and lifting Treasury yields, a dynamic that has increased the opportunity cost of holding a zero-yielding asset. The analysts said that gold is unlikely to move meaningfully higher until markets begin to price in lower real yields, a weaker U.S. dollar, or a clearer shift toward Federal Reserve easing.
Stock market bulls should remember one important lesson: The economy could eventually reflect geopolitical realities, and one of those realities in today’s market is super-elevated oil prices. “The global economy has weathered the oil shock reasonably well so far. However, the risk of a recession will increase meaningfully if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into June,” BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin warned in a new note. “Historically, oil shocks have had a lagged impact on economic activity, with the maximum impact on GDP growth being reached four quarters after the shock, and the maximum impact on the level of real GDP being reached six quarters after the shock,” Berezin added. Amid the ongoing Iran conflict that began in late February, the U.S. economy has displayed a Jekyll-and-Hyde dynamic, characterized by a record-setting stock market and a resilient labor market that has clashed with historic lows in consumer sentiment.
April’s hotter-than-expected inflation reading is likely to put the Fed on watch for higher energy costs creeping into other prices, a red line that, if crossed, could raise the possibility of interest rate hikes. According to CME Fed Watch, markets on Tuesday morning were pricing in a nearly 98% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting in June and through most of 2026. But looking out to December, there’s now a nearly 30% chance of a rate hike. Stephen Brown, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, said pressure on core inflation is “still a bit too strong for comfort, and the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to be concerned by renewed signs of food inflation accelerating, given the risk that higher gasoline and food prices together will further boost households’ inflation expectations.”
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| May. 8, 2026 | May. 15, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,720.45 | $4,559.36 | -161.09 | -3.41% |
| Silver | $80.38 | $77.07 | -3.31 | -4.12% |
| Platinum | $2,054.67 | $1,987.24 | -67.43 | -3.28% |
| Palladium | $1,491.78 | $1,420.13 | -71.65 | -4.80% |
| Dow | 49607.81 | 49526.11 | -81.70 | -0.16% |
Previous Year Comparison
| May. 16, 2025 | May. 15, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,189.41 | $4,559.36 | 1369.95 | 42.95% |
| Silver | $32.22 | $77.07 | 44.85 | 139.20% |
| Platinum | $989.53 | $1,987.24 | 997.71 | 100.83% |
| Palladium | $960.42 | $1,420.13 | 459.71 | 47.87% |
| Dow | 42654.74 | 49526.11 | 6871.37 | 16.11% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 4555/4395/4291 | 74.30/69.25/64.98 |
| Resistance | 4819/4924/5084 | 83.30/88.26/94.31 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1957/1854/1784 | 1448/1401/1324 |
| Resistance | 2130/2202/2303 | 1554/1613/1660 |