1. The specter of stagflation caused by the Iran war has wiped out more than $2.5 trillion from the value of global bonds in March, on track for the biggest monthly loss in more than three years. Bonds are tumbling as a surge in oil prices quickens inflation, eroding the value of the fixed payments on debt. While the slide in bonds’ market value is less than the roughly $11.5 trillion lost in global equities, it’s perhaps more unexpected as debt typically gains in times of geopolitical turmoil. The total market value of government, corporate, and securitized debt has fallen to $74.4 trillion from almost $77 trillion at the end of February. That’s on course to be the biggest drop since September 2022, when the Federal Reserve was in the midst of an aggressive cycle of interest-rate hikes. In percentage terms, the gauge has slipped 3.1% this month.
2. U.S. stocks dropped on Tuesday as optimism over easing tensions in Middle East waned, following a report that the U.S. plans to deploy troops to the region. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.4%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1%. Oil prices fell sharply on the news of hostilities potentially winding down, but have since rebounded as fighting between Iran and the U.S.-Israeli alliance continued. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4%, back above $92 a barrel, while Brent jumped back above $104.
3. The gold market continues to frustrate investors, as it has seen its second 4% single-day loss since the war with Iran. This event is creating significant economic uncertainty and driving energy prices and inflation higher. Spot gold is currently trading at $4,610.90 an ounce, its lowest level since the sharp selloff that followed its record high near $5,600 in January. While gold prices could continue to move lower in the near term, one fund manager said that these corrections and periods of short-term volatility are where investors can make real profits, as rising government debt and limited central bank action continue to support higher gold prices over the long term. In an interview, Tavi Costa, founder and CEO of Azuria Capital, said he sees the current pullback in gold as noise within what he believes is a much larger, still early-stage bull market for precious metals, one increasingly driven by structural forces reshaping both the mining industry and the global economy itself. While gold is facing pressure from tighter liquidity conditions and shifting rate expectations, Costa said the macro backdrop remains firmly supportive. “There’s zero chance this is the end of the cycle,” he said.
4. The U.S. current account deficit narrowed sharply in the fourth quarter, hitting the lowest level in nearly five years, amid a rise in primary income and a reduction in the goods trade deficit partly because of tariffs on imports. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Wednesday the current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services, and investments into and out of the country, contracted by $48.4 billion, or 20.2%, to $190.7 billion last quarter. That was the lowest level since the first quarter of 2021. Data for the third quarter was revised to show the deficit at $239.1 billion instead of the previously estimated $226.4 billion. Economists polled had forecasted the current account deficit shrinking to $211.0 billion. The fourth-quarter current account deficit represented 2.4% of gross domestic product, down from 3.1% in the third quarter. It peaked at 6.3% in the third quarter of 2006. The deficit narrowed by $69.3 billion, or 5.8%, to $1.12 trillion in 2025. That represented 3.6% of GDP, down from 4.0% in 2024.
5. The number of Americans applying for jobless aid inched up last week as employers continue to retain workers despite a labor market that has weakened considerably in the past year. U.S. applications for jobless aid for the week ending March 21 rose by 5,000 to 210,000 from the previous week’s 205,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That’s right in line with the 210,000 new filings analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet were expecting.
6. On Friday, Brent futures traded above $103 per barrel, holding onto roughly 3% gains on the day. U.S. benchmark WTI crude held onto slightly higher gains to trade above $97 per barrel. Earlier in the Iran conflict, the two energy products reached prices not seen since the early months of 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
7. EUR/USD stages a modest rebound after testing the 1.1500 area earlier in the day, although gains appear capped below 1.1550 for now. in the meantime, the U.S. Dollar continues to hold firm against its peers, limiting the pair’s upside as lingering uncertainty around the Middle East keeps investors cautious heading into the weekend.
8. USD/JPY drifts lower to near 159.50 in the Asian session on Friday, snapping a three-day winning streak back closer to its highest level since July 2024, as intervention fears support the Japanese Yen. However, economic concerns stemming from the war-driven surge in energy prices might cap the JPY. The U.S. Dollar, on the other hand, retains its global reserve currency status amid fading hopes for Iran peace talks and hawkish Fed bets, which should limit losses for the currency pair.
It could be time to invest in gains in the beaten-up gold market. “This makes for, we think, a reasonable entry point,” Barclays strategist Ajay Rajadhyaksha said in a note on Thursday. The buy-the-dip trade reflects a few factors that investors may be forgetting. “Central bank buying of gold, which picked up sharply after 2022, is unlikely to fade,” he said. “Fiscal profiles across the West keep worsening. The Fed has missed its 2% inflation target for four straight years, and we do not think a rate hike is on the horizon in 2026. The combination of geopolitical risk, persistent central bank buying, the inflation spike from the oil shock, and the fiscal effect of the conflict should all support gold, especially as a tail hedge in most portfolios.” Being bullish on gold was one of the best trades of 2025, where the precious metal saw its strongest annual performance in 46 years. Prices surged 65% to finish the year at $4,300 per ounce. After hitting an all-time record of $5,608 per ounce in early February and trading near $5,100 at the start of March, gold has tumbled about 15% over the past 30 days. Prices have currently stabilized at around $4,521 as of March 26.
Mortgage rates rose last week to the highest level since last fall, and that pushed mortgage demand off a cliff. Total mortgage application volume dropped 10.5% last week from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, increased to 6.43% from 6.30%, with points rising to 0.65 from 0.63, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. Refinance demand, which had been surging just a few months ago, dropped 15% for the week. It was still 52% higher than the same week one year ago, when the 30-year fixed rate was 28 basis points higher. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 49.6% of total applications. For comparison, in mid-January it held a 60% share. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 5% for the week and were just 5% higher than the same week one year ago.
The Index of Consumer Sentiment showed sentiment ended March with a final reading of 53.3, marking a larger decline than the reading of 54 economists expected and the lowest reading in three months. Overall, consumer sentiment fell 5.8% from February and 6.5% from a year ago. Consumer sentiment had been gradually improving in recent months, making the sudden downturn even more striking. The survey ran from Feb. 17 to March 23, meaning two-thirds of responses were collected after the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Mar. 20, 2026 | Mar. 27, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,573.54 | $4,488.04 | -85.50 | -1.87% |
| Silver | $69.61 | $69.60 | -0.01 | -0.01% |
| Platinum | $1,961.87 | $1,870.47 | -91.40 | -4.66% |
| Palladium | $1,431.56 | $1,383.51 | -48.05 | -3.36% |
| Dow | 45574.92 | 45166.33 | -408.59 | -0.90% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Mar. 28, 2025 | Mar. 27, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,077.76 | $4,488.04 | 1410.28 | 45.82% |
| Silver | $34.05 | $69.60 | 35.55 | 104.41% |
| Platinum | $985.21 | $1,870.47 | 885.26 | 89.85% |
| Palladium | $978.86 | $1,383.51 | 404.65 | 41.34% |
| Dow | 41578.86 | 45166.33 | 3587.47 | 8.63% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 4297/4104/3730 | 61.34/54.89/44.29 |
| Resistance | 4864/5213/5431 | 71.94/78.39/88.99 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1806/1688/1503 | 1379/1372/1361 |
| Resistance | 1991/2110/2295 | 1396/1408/1414 |