1. Gold traded in a narrow range, hovering near $5,000 an ounce, as the conflict in the Middle East entered a third week, and investors weighed the inflationary impact of higher oil prices. Bullion edged higher on Monday, following two consecutive weeks of losses. Elevated crude prices from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran have put the metal under pressure, raising the prospect of fewer Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Crude fluctuated around $100 a barrel. Uncertainty over how long the war will last has made it difficult for traders to assess the impact on markets and the wider economy. As the war drags on, prospects for an interest-rate cut have dwindled. Traders now see virtually no chance of a rate cut at this week’s Fed meeting. Higher borrowing costs typically weigh on precious metals, which don’t pay interest. The war has also boosted the dollar at the expense of gold. Though slightly down Monday, the greenback has risen about 2% since the U.S. and Israel first struck Iran.
2. U.S. factory production increased marginally in February as strength in motor vehicle output was offset by weakness in machinery, data showed on Monday. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% last month after an upwardly revised 0.8% gain in January, the Federal Reserve said. Economists polled had forecasted production for the sector, which accounts for 10.1% of the economy, rising 0.1% after a previously reported 0.6% rise in January. Production at factories advanced 1.3% year-on-year in February.
3. Recent labor market data gave the Federal Reserve some flexibility to turn its attention to a persistent inflation problem. But now we have an oil shock to add to the picture. While the disruption to global energy flows is a shock to the inflation side of the ledger, it could easily knock the other half of the Fed’s mandate off balance. U.S. central bankers, who will announce their next interest rate decision later this week, face a policy dilemma: rising pricing pressures on one side and slowing economic growth on the other. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has fallen sharply since June, dipping below 1x, meaning that more people are looking for work than there are open positions. At 0.9x, it’s still above the long-run average of 0.7x, she noted. “While this ratio does not yet signal a labor market/consumer-led recession, it has come down quickly and bears watching in the months ahead, given rising oil prices and recession worries.”
4. U.S. producer prices rose more than twice as fast as expected in February, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Producer Price Index rose 0.7% in February over the previous month, up from January’s 0.5% gain and more than double economists’ expectations for an increase of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, headline prices rose by 3.4%, above estimates of 3% and the previous month’s 2.9% year-on-year increase. Wholesale prices excluding food and energy gained 3.9% year over year, hotter than estimates of 3.7% and the previous month’s 3.6%.
5. In the week ending March 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 205,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 213,000. The 4-week moving average was 210,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 500 from 212,000 to 211,500.
6. Crude oil prices inched down at the end of the week but are still on course to end the week with gains as the disruption to exports from the Middle East extends to a third week. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $106.71 per barrel, after it started the week around $103. West Texas Intermediate was trading at $93.58 a barrel, down from over $99 a barrel at the start of the week.
7. EUR/USD manages to pick up some pace and rebounds from earlier lows, revisiting the 1.1560 region on Friday, giving back part of Thursday’s ECB-driven rally. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar trades with marked gains, supported by a cautious tone across global markets and persistent geopolitical tensions.
8. USD/JPY is rebounding alongside the U.S. Dollar in Friday’s Asian trading, retaking 158.00 after having dropped 1.25% on Thursday, in a session dominated by broad Yen strength. The pair had rallied within a few pips of the 160.00 level earlier in the week before reversing sharply, and Thursday’s large bearish candle erased most of the gains accumulated over the prior five sessions.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to hold its key interest rate steady as policymakers navigate their way through higher-than-expected inflation readings, mixed signs on the labor market, and a war. In a widely expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to keep the benchmark federal funds rate anchored in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. The rate sets overnight funding costs for banks but influences a broad range of consumer and business borrowing. In its post-meeting statement, the committee made a few changes to its view of the economy, with a slightly faster growth pace and higher inflation projections for 2026. Despite the elevated uncertainty, officials again signaled they still expect a few rate cuts ahead. The closely watched “dot plot,” which reflects individual members’ rate projections, pointed to one reduction this year and another in 2027, though the timing remains unclear.
The war with Iran is disrupting global oil flows, damaging energy infrastructure, and raising fears of prolonged conflict. But gold, usually considered a safe haven during periods of economic uncertainty, has slumped. In times of turmoil, investors often buy gold, betting it will retain its value if inflation spikes, currencies drop, or a crisis hits. Yet surging energy prices due to the Middle East conflict are prompting central banks worldwide to reconsider the outlook for interest rates. That matters a lot for gold. Fed interest rates are consequential for markets. The Fed just held rates steady for the second meeting in a row. Traders are pricing in no further rate cuts this year, according to CME FedWatch. Gold soared in the fall when the Fed cut rates three times in a row. Now, Fed rates are expected to hold steady for several more months, pushing bond yields up. That raises the opportunity cost of holding gold. The U.S. dollar’s trajectory is another key factor for gold. Gold tends to benefit in a weaker dollar environment, since the yellow metal becomes relatively more affordable for investors around the globe. The dollar is up 2.2% since the Iran war began, halting a monthslong slide. The rebound in the dollar could be dampening the appeal of gold.
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell more than expected in January, hitting their lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years, likely weighed down by harsh winter weather. New home sales tumbled 17.6% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 587,000 units, the lowest level since October 2022. Data for December was revised lower to show sales falling to a pace of 712,000 units instead of the previously reported 745,000-unit rate. Economists had expected home sales to fall to a rate of 720,000 units in January. Sales dropped in all four regions. Snowstorms and frigid temperatures walloped large parts of the country in January, which could have made it difficult for prospective buyers to venture out and view properties. The Census Bureau is still catching up on data releases following delays caused by last year’s government shutdown.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Mar. 13, 2026 | Mar. 20, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $5,047.25 | $4,573.54 | -473.71 | -9.39% |
| Silver | $80.96 | $69.61 | -11.35 | -14.02% |
| Platinum | $2,044.08 | $1,961.87 | -82.21 | -4.02% |
| Palladium | $1,572.73 | $1,431.56 | -141.17 | -8.98% |
| Dow | 46559.83 | 45574.92 | -984.91 | -2.12% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Mar. 21, 2025 | Mar. 20, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,013.86 | $4,573.54 | 1559.68 | 51.75% |
| Silver | $32.95 | $69.61 | 36.66 | 111.26% |
| Platinum | $981.33 | $1,961.87 | 980.54 | 99.92% |
| Palladium | $958.29 | $1,431.56 | 473.27 | 49.39% |
| Dow | 41984.68 | 45574.92 | 3590.24 | 8.55% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 4518/4458/4418 | 72.74/66.06/64.10 |
| Resistance | 4591/4618/4659 | 83.34/87.25/93.94 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1947/1867/1715 | 1436/1327/1286 |
| Resistance | 2197/2331/2411 | 1604/1664/1773 |