1. Stock futures climbed on Monday amid promising signs that a U.S.-China trade deal will cap President Trump’s long-awaited meeting with China’s President Xi later this week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures moved up roughly 0.5%, or around 200 points, while those on the S&P 500 jumped 0.8%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 led gains, up 1.3%. Wall Street is in an upbeat mood as it gears up for a pivotal week featuring the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision and a barrage of Big Tech earnings, as well as Thursday’s high-stakes meeting between Trump and Xi.
2. The Federal Reserve convenes its policy meeting this week as the government shutdown verges on nearly a month, leaving central bankers without most official data to decide on setting interest rates. Even so, officials are expected to trim their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point for the second time this year. “In the absence of the official data for jobs, they’re going to lean on other sources of information, which at this point aren’t really going to contradict what they have argued as their reason for cutting,” former Kansas City Federal Reserve president Esther George said. One important piece of data the Fed did get was the Consumer Price Index, which showed inflation cooled slightly in September. On a core basis, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is the preferred Fed measure, inflation rose by 3%, cooling from 3.1% in the prior month. Month over month, core inflation rose 0.2% after rising 0.3% in the two preceding months.
3. Private payroll processor ADP said Tuesday that the U.S. labor market showed signs of bouncing back in October, with the average weekly increase in employment tallying 14,250 over a four-week period ended Oct. 11. “This growth in employment suggests that the U.S. economy is emerging from its recent trough of job losses,” ADP economist Nela Richardson wrote in a post. “Hiring has begun to increase from September levels, albeit slowly and without the positive momentum we saw earlier in the year,” Richardson added. “This tepid recovery could support economic growth, however, because our run of week-over-week job losses seems to have been relatively short-lived.”
4. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point Wednesday for the second meeting in a row, even as the government shutdown has left policymakers without key data to guide monetary policy. The central bank voted in a split decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.
5. There was no unemployment report for this week.
6. Oil prices were flat on Friday, but were heading for a third consecutive monthly decline, as a stronger U.S. dollar, weak China data and rising supply from major global producers weighed. Retracing some earlier losses, Brent crude futures were up 29 cents, or 0.5%, at $65.29 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.10 a barrel, up 53 cents, or 0.9%. The U.S. dollar was near three-month highs against its major peers, making purchases of dollar-denominated commodities such as oil more expensive.
7. EUR/USD accelerates its decline, slipping back to levels last seen in early August around 1.1520. That said, the pair adds to the weekly correction and extends the bearish trend for the third consecutive day on Friday. Eurozone data showed annual HICP inflation easing slightly to 2.1% in October, right in line with expectations. For now, traders are keeping an eye on upcoming comments from Fed officials.
8. The Japanese Yen languishes near its lowest level since February against a broadly firmer U.S. Dollar through the first half of the European session on Friday and seems vulnerable to slide further. Investors now seem convinced that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could resist further policy tightening amid expectations that Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will pursue aggressive fiscal spending plans.
Gold steadied near $4,000 an ounce as traders weighed a U.S.-China trade truce that failed to quash concerns about long-term competition between the world’s two largest economies. Spot gold pared losses Friday after earlier declining as much as 0.9%. Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned against “breaking supply chains” in his first public remarks after a landmark meeting with President Donald Trump that secured a one-year trade truce between the nations. Talks between the two leaders appeared to resolve, for now, months of brinkmanship, but a one-year pause is likely only to stabilize relations while buying each side time to reduce strategic dependence. The trigger also underscored the rise in China’s economic clout since Trump’s first term as U.S. president, a shift that is fueling interest in haven assets. Despite its recent pullback, gold has still advanced more than 50% this year, with support from a push by mainstream investors to safeguard their portfolios against risk as well as accelerated central bank buying, the World Gold Council said in a report on Thursday.
The price of gold can be quoted in multiple forms because the precious metal is traded in different ways. The two main gold prices that investors should know about are spot prices and gold futures prices. The spot price of gold is the current market price per ounce for physical gold as a raw material, sometimes called spot gold. Gold ETFs that are backed by physical gold assets generally track the gold spot price. The spot price is lower than what you’d pay to buy gold coins, bullion, or jewelry, since your total price will include a markup called the gold premium that covers refining, marketing, dealer overhead, etc. The spot price is more like a wholesale price, and the spot price plus the gold premium is the retail price. Gold futures are paper contracts that mandate a gold transaction at a specific price on a future date. These contracts are exchange-traded and more liquid than physical gold. They settle on the contract expiration date or earlier, either financially or via delivery. A cash settlement involves paying the contract’s profit or loss in cash. Delivery means the seller sends physical gold to the buyer for the contracted price.
Consumer confidence in October slid for a third consecutive month, hitting its lowest level since April when tariff announcements sent shock waves through the economy. The latest index reading from The Conference Board showed a small 1.0-point decline on a monthly basis in October to 94.6 as consumers’ view of current business and labor conditions improved slightly. Short-term expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions, however, weakened by 2.9 points and continued to remain below a threshold “that typically signals a recession ahead,” The Conference Board said. Confidence also diverged among consumers based on income level, another sign of a K-shaped economy. “Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly revised September level,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators said.
Mortgage interest rates dropped for the fourth straight week last week, spurring both current homeowners and potential homebuyers to call their lenders. Total mortgage application volume increased 7.1% compared with the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, decreased to 6.30% from 6.37%, with points falling to 0.58 from 0.59, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. That is the lowest level since September 2024. Refinance demand, which is most sensitive to interest rate changes, jumped 9% for the week and was 111% higher than the same week one year ago. Last year at this time, the average rate on the 30-year fixed was 43 basis points higher.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Oct. 24, 2025 | Oct. 31, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,106.87 | $3,997.35 | -109.52 | -2.67% |
| Silver | $48.53 | $48.66 | 0.13 | 0.27% |
| Platinum | $1,612.97 | $1,576.19 | -36.78 | -2.28% |
| Palladium | $1,443.30 | $1,445.44 | 2.14 | 0.15% |
| Dow | 47207.12 | 47562.87 | 355.75 | 0.75% |
Month End to Mont End Close
| Sept. 30, 2025 | Oct. 31, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,844.05 | $3,997.35 | 153.30 | 3.99% |
| Silver | $46.45 | $48.66 | 2.21 | 4.76% |
| Platinum | $1,567.62 | $1,576.19 | 8.57 | 0.55% |
| Palladium | $1,257.14 | $1,445.44 | 188.30 | 14.98% |
| Dow | 46397.89 | 47562.87 | 1164.98 | 2.51% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Sept. 30, 2025 | Oct. 31, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,844.05 | $3,997.35 | 153.30 | 3.99% |
| Silver | $46.45 | $48.66 | 2.21 | 4.76% |
| Platinum | $1,567.62 | $1,576.19 | 8.57 | 0.55% |
| Palladium | $1,257.14 | $1,445.44 | 188.30 | 14.98% |
| Dow | 46397.89 | 47562.87 | 1164.98 | 2.51% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3950/3789/3573 | 46.49/44.36/41.21 |
| Resistance | 4166/4327/4543 | 49.64/51.76/54.92 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1513/1417/1341 | 1363/1294/1214 |
| Resistance | 1686/1763/1859 | 1512/1591/1661 |