1. A weak jobs report for February quashed the notion that the labor market is stabilizing, but it likely won’t push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month, given the oil price shock from the Iran war poses a risk of higher inflation. “This jobs report has got my attention,” San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly told the media. “The labor markets may be a little weaker than we have seen so far.” Daly added that, at this point, the Fed is facing “two-sided risks.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the economy unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3% in January. “There are a handful of things that may have distorted February’s data,” said Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at JPMorgan Wealth Management. “Still, the pace of job gains over the last few months is still dramatically slower than it was in 2024 and much of 2025, this is going to make it harder for the Fed to sell the labor market stabilization narrative that’s been used to justify patience on further rate cuts.”
2. U.S. stocks are facing a growing risk of a sharp selloff this year as the escalating war in Iran hurts global markets, according to veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, updating his outlook for what he describes as “fast-moving times.” Yardeni has raised the probability of a market meltdown to 35% for the rest of the year, up from 20% previously. At the same time, he slashed the odds of a melt-up, a rally driven more by investors’ enthusiasm than underlying fundamentals, to just 5% from 20%. The shift in those weightings comes as oil prices surge above $100 a barrel and investors brace for a prolonged conflict in the Middle East that could send energy costs even higher.
3. The Group of Seven nations is “not there yet” in terms of organizing a global release of emergency oil inventories in response to the Iran war, according to France, which holds the current presidency. Brent oil futures pared a surge of as much as 29% earlier on Monday when it emerged that the G-7 would discuss a possible release in their talks on the economic fallout from the conflict. Prices are soaring as producers across the Middle East are forced to cut output, and the vital Strait of Hormuz chokepoint is all but halted to tankers. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates, which together account for about 20% of the world’s oil, have reduced output because the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz means there are no longer enough tankers to export their oil. Coordinated releases of strategic stockpiles have been carried out only five times before, including twice in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Before that, reserves were tapped following supply disruptions in Libya, Hurricane Katrina, and during the first Gulf War.
4. A reading on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge released Friday for January reinforces the case for the central bank to hold interest rates steady for now. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index for January rose to a two-year high of 3.1% on a “core” basis, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. That’s up a tenth of a percentage point from December’s core print of 3% and holding at a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% inflation goal. January inflation data was delayed by more than two weeks due to the government shutdown last fall.
5. The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell last week, which could help to assuage fears of a labor market deterioration after an unexpected decline in employment in February. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 213,000 for the week ended March 7. Economists polled had forecasted 215,000 claims for the latest week.
6. Brent crude traded near $100 a barrel following one of the most volatile weeks ever for the oil market, with investors bracing for more upheaval. The global oil benchmark pared gains on Friday after jumping 9.2% in the previous session, with price fluctuations this week covering the widest range on record. In a further effort to try to tame surging prices, the U.S. issued its second temporary waiver for the purchase of Russian oil. The latest measure, which covers oil loaded onto vessels before March 12, is broader than a directive earlier this month that cleared only India to boost its buying.
7. EUR/USD remains firmly under pressure, extending its decline for a fourth straight session and revisiting the 1.1430 region for the first time since late July 2025. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar continues to push to fresh highs as investors stay cautious amid the persistent tensions in the Middle East.
8. USD/JPY extends its winning streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 159.40 during the early European hours. The pair remains stronger as the dollar may hold its ground as futures markets and economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at next week’s policy meeting, with the benchmark federal funds rate currently at 3.50%–3.75%.
Gold traded in a narrow range after the release of inflation data dimmed prospects for interest-rate cuts, and the war in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. Bullion rose 0.1%, erasing earlier losses. While core inflation came in tame at the start of the year, forward-looking inflationary concerns linked to conflict in the Middle East have caused traders to pare back some of their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, weighing on non-yielding gold. As well as enduring the prospect of higher borrowing costs, gold is a source of liquidity used by investors to shore up other parts of their portfolios when needed. Since war broke out, the volume of gold held by exchange-traded funds has declined, with holdings last week falling by the most in more than two years. “I think what you’re going to see is more demand for gold coming out of this,” Carlyle Group’s Jeff Currie said recently on television. When oil prices spiked in the past, the resulting windfall of petrodollars producers would end up investing in U.S. assets, Currie said. This time, emerging market buyers are opting for gold, as they seek to avoid having their foreign exchange reserve assets frozen, as Russia’s were in 2022.
Home sales improved in February, a sign that lower mortgage rates are bringing some buyers off the sidelines, even as overall demand remains muted. Existing home sales rose 1.7% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million. Sales improved in all parts of the country except the Northeast, which experienced a prolonged cold snap and a blizzard in February. Home sales are up month over month, but that follows a dismal January. Sales dropped 5.9% that month following data revisions. And sales are still down 1.4% compared to February 2025, a sign that many buyers are skittish even in an environment where lower mortgage rates and easing home price appreciation have helped affordability.
Mortgage rates rose this week to above 6%, mirroring market concerns about war, volatile gas prices, the possibility of renewed inflation, and delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 11 basis points to 6.11% for the week ending on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 15-year loan rates increased by 7 basis points to 5.50%. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage returned to last month’s level of 6.11%,” Sam Khater, chief economist of Freddie Mac, said in a release. “Despite the modest uptick, buyers are responding to rates in this range, with existing home sales increasing 1.7% in February. Purchase applications also increased this week, a welcome sign as buyers enter the spring homebuying season.”
Consumer prices broadly remained unchanged in February, holding steady. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in February every month and 2.4% over last year, matching economists’ expectations while showing little change from January’s cooler-than-expected print, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ inflation report released Wednesday. On a “core” basis, excluding volatile energy and food categories, consumer prices rose 0.2% from a month earlier and 2.5% from a year ago, also matching economists’ predictions.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Mar. 6, 2026 | Mar. 13, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $5,140.65 | $5,047.25 | -93.40 | -1.82% |
| Silver | $84.10 | $80.96 | -3.14 | -3.73% |
| Platinum | $2,127.45 | $2,044.08 | -83.37 | -3.92% |
| Palladium | $1,638.68 | $1,572.73 | -65.95 | -4.02% |
| Dow | 47501.55 | 46559.83 | -941.72 | -1.98% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Mar. 14, 2025 | Mar. 13, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,990.70 | $5,047.25 | 2056.55 | 68.76% |
| Silver | $33.82 | $80.96 | 47.14 | 139.38% |
| Platinum | $997.70 | $2,044.08 | 1046.38 | 104.88% |
| Palladium | $966.50 | $1,572.73 | 606.23 | 62.72% |
| Dow | 41488.19 | 46559.83 | 5071.64 | 12.22% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 4971/4772/4548 | 76.06/67.76/57.57 |
| Resistance | 5394/5618/5817 | 86.25/94.55/104.74 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1953/1764/1520 | 1535/1440/1282 |
| Resistance | 2385/2630/2818 | 1693/1787/1946 |