1. Stocks and bonds posted small moves amid muted holiday trading after Friday’s benign inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Futures on the S&P 500 were flat, and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index gained 0.2%. With the U.S. observing the Presidents’ Day holiday and mainland China’s markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays, trading volumes were thin. Still, the path of U.S. interest rates remains in focus following the slower-than-expected inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July and the strong chance of a move in June. “The backdrop for equities is positive post CPI,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. “At the same time, there could be more dispersion ahead as sentiment around key AI-exposed sectors is still very critical,” he added.
2. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday that another central bank interest rate cut could come somewhere well down the road amid ongoing risks to the U.S. inflation outlook. “Based on current conditions and the data in hand, it will likely be appropriate to hold rates steady for some time as we assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” Barr said in the text. “I would like to see evidence that goods price inflation is sustainably retreating before considering reducing the policy rate further, provided labor market conditions remain stable.” Barr also noted in his remarks that the job market has stabilized, and recent data points to this reality.
3. Bitcoin’s Wall Street embrace was supposed to bring stability. Instead, it created a new vulnerability: dependence on American money that is now in retreat. Since Oct. 10, roughly $8.5 billion has flowed out of U.S. listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Futures exposure on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has fallen by about two-thirds from its late-2024 peak. Prices on Coinbase, the venue favored by many American institutions, have persistently traded at a discount to offshore exchange Binance — a signal of sustained selling. Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% even as stocks and precious metals have found buyers. That reversal carries unusual weight because of how the market changed. For most of its history, Bitcoin’s price was set on offshore exchanges by retail traders. Over the past two years, spot ETFs funneled billions through U.S. vehicles, the CME became the dominant futures venue, and pension funds and hedge funds displaced individual buyers. American retail and institutional capital became the marginal price-setter. The core problem is simple: the institutional thesis broke. Investors who bought Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, currency debasement, or equity market stress have watched it fall alongside, and sometimes faster than the risks it was supposed to offset. Those who treated it as a momentum trade have rotated into assets that are actually moving from global stocks to gold.
4. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, consistent with a stabilizing labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,0000 for the week ended February 14. Economists polled had forecasted 225,000 claims for the latest week. Last week’s drop marked a significant decline in claims since they jumped to 232,000 at the end of January.
5. Oil extended its biggest daily jump since October amid growing worries of a U.S. military attack on Iran. Brent crude, the international pricing benchmark, climbed to above $71 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $66 following a report that the Trump administration is edging toward conflict.
6. EUR/USD on Wednesday rose by +0.97%. The yen tumbled to a 1-week low against the dollar on Wednesday after the Nikkei Stock Index rose by more than +1%, curbing safe-haven demand for the yen. Also, dollar strength and a higher T-note yield on Wednesday undercut the yen.
7. The USD/JPY pair gains positive traction for the third straight day and climbs to over a one-week top, around the 155.35-155.40 region. Data released early today showed that Japan’s key inflation gauge eased to the slowest pace in two years, tempering expectations for an immediate policy tightening by the Bank of Japan.
Several Federal Reserve officials anticipate further interest rate cuts if inflation were to drop. In contrast, others see holding rates for “some time,” according to minutes of the central bank’s January policy meeting released Wednesday. “Several commented that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations,” the minutes read. Several members indicated that they supported a two-sided description of the Fed’s future interest rate decisions that would reflect the possibility that raising rates could be appropriate if inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. According to the minutes, most Fed officials cautioned that progress toward their 2% inflation goal might be slower and more uneven than expected, and that the risk of inflation running “persistently” above 2% was “meaningful.”
The U.S. stock market, typically considered the engine of the global economy, has struggled to find its footing through the first months of 2026, even as the rest of the world has surged ahead. As a result, U.S. stocks are off to their worst start of the year since 1995 against the global market. While the S&P 500, tracking the largest U.S. companies, has fallen by 1% since the start of the year, an index tracking market returns throughout the rest of the global economy has returned 8%. The trend holds true over the past year, too, where the ex-U.S. index has risen by 30%, triple the 10% return from the U.S. over the same period. “For global investors, the re-pricing of the dollar and erosion of the spread between the U.S.’s equity risk premium and others was brutal” in 2025, Viktor Shvets, the head of global desk strategy at Macquarie, wrote in a recent note to clients.
The latest batch of homebuilding data offered a dose of optimism, even as the larger issue of housing shortages hangs over so many discussions about the U.S. economy. Single-family housing starts in December rose 4.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 981,000 units. But the rebound also came with a shot of realism, with a decline in permits for future construction highlighting underlying weakness in the market for builders as many homebuyers stay on the sidelines. Homebuilder sentiment dropped further this month. Builders have pointed to high land and construction costs, which have also kept home prices elevated compared to the incomes of people looking to buy them. More than 30% of homebuilders are offering price cuts, the association said, to encourage customers to sign.
The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the fourth quarter of 2025. New data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis published on Friday showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the final three months of 2025. Economists had expected GDP to grow at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter. Friday’s report was scheduled for release on Jan. 29, but data collection was delayed by the government shutdown that covered all of October and parts of November. The shutdown also weighed on economic growth.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Feb. 13, 2026 | Feb. 20, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $5,020.01 | $5,075.26 | 55.25 | 1.10% |
| Silver | $77.72 | $82.73 | 5.01 | 6.45% |
| Platinum | $2,077.05 | $2,168.87 | 91.82 | 4.42% |
| Palladium | $1,680.57 | $1,749.24 | 68.67 | 4.09% |
| Dow | 49500.62 | 49625.97 | 125.35 | 0.25% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Feb. 21, 2025 | Feb. 20, 2026 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,936.85 | $5,075.26 | 2138.41 | 72.81% |
| Silver | $32.64 | $82.73 | 50.09 | 153.46% |
| Platinum | $973.43 | $2,168.87 | 1195.44 | 122.81% |
| Palladium | $980.10 | $1,749.24 | 769.14 | 78.48% |
| Dow | 43428.02 | 49625.97 | 6197.95 | 14.27% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 5013/4908/4773 | 83.64/82.75/82.27 |
| Resistance | 5148/5253/5388 | 85.02/85.51/86.40 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 2083/1968/1868 | 1610/1523/1438 |
| Resistance | 2182/2298/2397 | 1782/1867/1954 |