1. March inflation data and Big Bank earnings are among the major items on this week’s economic calendar. Investors will be looking for signals on prices and economic health amid uncertainty surrounding the tariff announcements, which is expected to take effect on Wednesday. China announced 34% retaliatory tariffs that are scheduled to begin on Thursday. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to provide insight into economic conditions and the path of interest rates. Data on consumer sentiment and credit levels will be closely watched amid economic uncertainty over inflation and tariffs. Economists expect the Consumer Price Index to remain unchanged in March, with that data scheduled for release on Thursday. The sideways movement comes as inflation has edged lower recently, including a steeper-than-expected decrease in February’s CPI reading.
2. Gold prices are sharply higher in early trading Wednesday on safe-haven demand, due in part to the U.S. Treasury market worries. Broker SP Angel today reports in an email dispatch: “Gold is enjoying a tailwind from Chinese buying over concerns of yuan devaluation amid tariff impacts and the continued deflationary environment, exacerbated by a slumping property market. However, concerns over the amount of leverage currently in the U.S. Treasury market may also push investors into gold as a haven asset. Gold and Treasuries often compete for haven status, with Treasuries historically winning when yields were higher. However, should investors worry about the stability of the U.S. government bond market, gold may provide the obvious alternative. When the Fed intervened in March 2020 with a 100 basis-point emergency cut, gold subsequently rallied around 30% the remainder of the year.” SP Angel added: “Watch this space.”
3. March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation pressures eased considerably last month, with annual core prices rising at their slowest pace since March 2021. The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index increased 2.4% over the prior year in March, a slowdown from February’s 2.8% annual gain and a beat compared to economist expectations of a 2.5% annual increase. On a month-over-month basis, prices declined 0.1% – the first-time monthly CPI prices have fallen since May 2020. This was also below the 0.2% increase seen in February and a beat compared to economists’ estimates of a 0.1% monthly uptick. On a “core” basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in March climbed 0.1% over the prior month, cooler than February’s 0.2% monthly gain and ahead of economist expectations of a 0.3% increase. Over the last year, core prices rose 2.8%, a deceleration from the 3.1% annual core price increases seen in the prior month period and the slowest annual rise in four years. Overall, March delivered the second straight monthly decline in headline and core CPI inflation.
4. Homebuilders and the broader new construction industry got a bit of a reprieve from sweeping new tariffs, which exempted several key building materials from further tariffs. But the levies are still likely to raise construction costs and further stress the precarious U.S. housing market. On Wednesday, varied tariffs on goods imported from U.S. trading partners were unveiled. Chinese imports will be subject to a new 34% levy (in addition to an existing 20% rate), while goods from the European Union will be taxed at 20%. Notably absent from the new list were Canada and Mexico, two major trading partners homebuilders rely on for lumber and drywall components. Other commonly used building materials, like aluminum and steel, are exempt from the latest tariffs after being hit with an earlier 25% duty. There’s also a carveout for lumber and copper imports. Beyond materials costs, tariffs are likely to impact on the housing market in several indirect but important ways. As financial markets sold off on Thursday morning, traders rushed to buy Treasurys, sending yields sharply lower. Mortgage rates closely track 10-year Treasury yields, which are expected to become more volatile in the coming weeks.
5. U.S. mortgage rates fell to the lowest level since October, spurred by a rally in government bonds in the wake of an escalating trade war and driving home purchase applications to a more than one-year high. The contract rate on a 30-year mortgage decreased 9 basis points to 6.61% in the week ended April 4, according to data released Wednesday. The rates on 30-year jumbo and 15-year fixed mortgages also declined. Cheaper borrowing costs also sparked a 35% surge in the index of refinancings, which reached the highest level since October. The gauge of mortgage applications for home purchases advanced more than 9%, marking the sixth straight weekly advance.
6. Slightly more Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, but the labor market remains broadly healthy despite an ongoing trade war. Jobless claim filings inched up by 4,000 to 223,000 for the week ending April 5, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s less than the 225,000 new applications analysts forecast. Weekly applications for jobless benefits are considered a proxy for layoffs and have mostly ping-ponged between 200,000 and 250,000 for the past few years. Despite showing some signs of weakening during the past year, the labor market remains healthy with plentiful jobs and relatively few layoffs.
7. Oil extended a volatile run as investors assessed abrupt shifts in U.S. trade policy, with futures returning to losses following a relief rally on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate plunged by 3.7% to settle near $60 a barrel, after flirting with a four-year low throughout the session, while Brent fell to close near $63. In the previous session, prices posted the biggest intraday gain since October.
8. The Euro (EUR) tested the upper 1.08s on Monday and traded to a three-year high above 1.14 earlier. It is notable that the EUR surge is happening against a backdrop of widening EZ/US spreads which would ordinarily be a negative factor for the EUR. In fact, the bull trend in the EUR looks firmly established across short-, medium and long-term studies, suggesting minor dips (low/mid 1.12s perhaps) are a buy and more EUR gains will develop in the medium term. Solid EUR gains above 1.12 this week suggest the EUR is potentially heading to a new, higher range between 1.17/1.22.
9. USD/JPY adds to the pessimism seen in the latter part of the week and recedes to the 142.00 region on Friday, an area last seen in late September. The continuation of the noticeable appreciation of the Japanese currency put the pair under extra downside pressure, always on the back of heightened concerns surrounding the US-China trade scenario.
Gold rose to a record above $3,200 an ounce as concerns about the impact of tariffs on the global economy boosted bullion’s appeal as a haven for investors. Prices gained as much as 1.9% to $3,237.89 on Friday, eclipsing the previous all-time high posted Thursday. Prices headed for a weekly increase of about 6%. Gold’s haven status has been underlined this week, with a flip-flop on tariffs sparking frantic selloffs for stocks, bonds and the dollar, as fears of a worldwide recession engulfed Wall Street. “Gold is the best place to be in the market now,” said Liu Yuxuan, a Shanghai-based precious metal researcher at Guotai Jun’an Futures Co. “The unprecedented trade tension has deepened the distrust of U.S. dollar, intensifying the demand for other safety assets”, she added. Gold’s rally of more than a fifth this year has also been boosted by central bank buying and hopes for more Federal Reserve monetary easing. On Thursday, data showed underlying inflation cooled broadly in March, with traders now pricing in expectations for three interest-rate cuts over the remainder of the year, with a chance of a fourth. Lower rates typically benefit bullion as it pays no interest.
Oil and related energy stocks fell on Wednesday as the price of crude dropped to its lowest level since 2021. Shares of energy giants Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and BP fell between 2% and 3% soon after the opening bell, while oilfield services firms Halliburton Company and Schlumberger Limited and drillers APA and Diamondback Energy also suffered losses. Futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, have tumbled about 20% since the announced sweeping tariffs last week. The price was down about 3.5% to below $57.50 a barrel in recent trading after the U.S. imposed wide-ranging tariffs overnight and China retaliated. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ most recent energy survey, oil producers require an average price of $65 a barrel to profitably drill, with nearly 60% requiring prices to be higher.
U.S. stocks rocketed higher on Wednesday as President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries, yet at the same time upped increasingly ballooning levies on China. The benchmark S&P 500 roared up nearly 8% at last check, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rallied a whopping 10%, aiming for its biggest gain since 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up over 7%, or over 2,500 points. All three of the major averages had previously been lower at some point in the session. Big Tech led the rally on Wednesday. Nvidia soared over 15% while Tesla added 17%. Apple, Amazon and Meta were up about 10%. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield continued a recent surge, moving up near 4.4% after paring some gains.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Apr. 4, 2025 | Apr. 11, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,025.77 | $3,233.86 | 208.09 | 6.88% |
| Silver | $29.57 | $32.11 | 2.54 | 8.59% |
| Platinum | $922.42 | $940.29 | 17.87 | 1.94% |
| Palladium | $928.50 | $920.84 | -7.66 | -0.82% |
| Dow | 38274.61 | 40212.47 | 1937.86 | 5.06% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Apr. 12, 2024 | Apr. 11, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,356.33 | $3,233.86 | 877.53 | 37.24% |
| Silver | $28.31 | $32.11 | 3.80 | 13.42% |
| Platinum | $987.40 | $940.29 | -47.11 | -4.77% |
| Palladium | $1,058.88 | $920.84 | -138.04 | -13.04% |
| Dow | 37983.90 | 40212.47 | 2228.57 | 5.87% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3173/3144/3079 | 31.08/28.66/27.15 |
| Resistance | 3226/3284/3305 | 32.97/36.39/38.29 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 886/856/797 | 880/850/790 |
| Resistance | 976/1035/1065 | 971/1031/1062 |