1. Gold prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading Monday. June Comex gold futures notched a new all-time high of $3,159.30 an ounce. Strong and sustained safe-haven demand is propelling the yellow metal still higher. June gold was last up $41.60 at $3,155.90. May silver prices were last up $0.056 at $34.87. Risk aversion is highly elevated on this last trading day of the month and of the quarter. Gold prices soared to record highs overnight on keen safe-have demand. Reports said Goldman Sachs is forecasting gold prices could briefly spike to $4,500 this year. Technically, June gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,200.00. May silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October 2024 high of $35.80.
2. Stocks dropped around the world, bonds climbed, and gold hit another record high. From New York to London and Tokyo, equities got hammered as jittery investors kept scaling back risk or rebalancing their portfolios. U.S. stocks are about to conclude their worst quarter compared to the rest of the world since the 1980s, with the market also pummeled by a selloff in the big tech companies that had driven the artificial-intelligence euphoria of the past couple of years. In a bid for safety, Treasuries continued to outperform. It’s actually the first time since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 that stocks fell, and bonds rose in a three-month period. The dollar, long a go-to hiding place during market selloffs, has not been acting as such this year. The greenback has dropped against most major currencies and was set for its worst start to a year since 2017. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin cut his S&P 500 target and now expects the benchmark to end the year around 5,700 versus his previous estimate of 6,200, citing a higher recession risk and tariff-related uncertainty.
3. U.S. construction spending increased more than expected in February as a decline in mortgage rates boosted single-family homebuilding, though rising economic uncertainty because of tariffs on imports could slow momentum. The Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Tuesday that construction spending jumped 0.7% after a downwardly revised 0.5% decrease in January. Economists had forecasted construction spending to rebound 0.3% after a previously reported 0.2% decline in January. Construction spending advanced 2.9% year-on-year in February. Spending on private construction projects rose 0.9%. Investment in residential construction shot up 1.3%, with outlays on new single-family projects rebounding 1.0%.
4. Private payroll gains were stronger than expected in March, countering fears that the labor market and economy are slowing, according to a report on Wednesday. Companies added 155,000 jobs for the month, a sharp increase from the upwardly revised 84,000 in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 120,000, the payrolls processing firm said. Hiring was fairly broad based, with professional and business services adding 57,000 workers while financial activities grew by 38,000 as tax season heats up. Manufacturing contributed 21,000 and leisure and hospitality added 17,000. Service providers were responsible for 132,000 of the positions. On the downside, trade, transportation, and utilities saw a loss of 6,000 jobs and natural resources and mining declined by 3,000. On the wage side, earnings rose by 4.6% year over year for those staying in their positions and 6.5% for job changers. The gap between the two matched a series low last hit in September, suggesting a lower level of mobility for workers wanting to switch jobs.
5. The March jobs report showed the U.S. economy continued to add jobs at a strong pace last month while the unemployment rate ticked slightly higher. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed 228,000 new jobs were created in March, more than the 140,000 expected by economists, the 117,000 seen in February, and the 158,000 average monthly gain seen over the last year. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from the 4.1% seen in the prior month. February’s monthly job gains were revised lower than a previous reading of 151,000.
6. In the week ending March 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 224,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised by 250 from 224,000 to 224,250.
7. Oil prices plunged by 8% on Friday, heading for their lowest close since the middle of the pandemic in 2021. WTI crude came under heavy selling pressure Thursday after the U.S. rolled out a sweeping tariff package that sparked immediate fears of slower global growth and weaker oil demand. At the time of writing, Brent crude dropped 6.6% to $65.49 a barrel, while the U.S. oil gauge WTI trades 7.2% lower to $62.13 a barrel. The benchmarks are headed for a weekly loss of around 10%.
8. Euro (EUR) is soft, down 0.4% vs. the U.S. Dollar and trading back around the 1.10 level with a modest fade of Thursday’s impressive rally, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. “Sentiment appears to be dominating, as risk aversion permeates the broader market’s tone. Fundamentals remain supportive given this week’s significant narrowing in EU-US spreads as markets appear to be pricing a greater Fed response to tariffs, relative to the ECB. Europe has not yet formulated a response to this week’s tariff announcement, and EU trade ministers are scheduled to meet on Monday.”
9. The Japanese Yen (JPY) seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses against its American counterpart heading into the European session on Friday and remains close to a multi-month peak touched the previous day. Fears of an all-out trade war, which could trigger a global recession, continue to weigh on investors’ sentiment. This is evident from a sea of red across the global equity markets and underpins the safe-haven JPY.
Central banks are expected to help keep gold’s stunning rally going this year with buying aimed at further diversifying reserves away from the dollar. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 provided the first catalyst for purchases by central banks, which have since bought more than 1,000 metric tons of gold a year, twice the annual average of the previous decade. Spot gold hit its latest record at $3,167.57 a troy ounce on Thursday for a gain of 19% since the start of 2025 and a hefty 71% rise since the end of 2022. “Emerging market central banks currently hold around 10% of their assets in gold. They should really hold 30% of their assets in gold,” said BofA commodity strategist Michael Widmer. He said that would require central banks to increase their reserves by 11,000 tons of gold and added that uncertainty about U.S. economic policy would remain for some years to come. Fears of spiraling inflationary pressures due to companies passing on tariffs to consumers in order to protect their profit margins as well as workers seeking higher wages have also boosted gold’s role as a store of value and wealth. We view gold’s price strength to date, and our expectation for it to continue, as primarily being driven by investors’ and official institutions’ greater willingness to pay for its lack of credit or counterparty risk.
Wall Street analysts have been upping their price target on gold. Bank of America predicts gold will reach $3,500 per ounce over the coming 18 months under the assumption that investments will increase 10% through more buying from China and central banks. A “confluence of factors, mostly driven by this administration’s economic policy mix, have pushed investors to increase their allocations to the yellow metal,” the analysts wrote last week. JPMorgan analysts posed the question of whether a $4,000 level is possible, given the commodity’s rapid price move over the past year. Gold went from $2,500 to $3,000 in 210 days, significantly faster than previous $500 increments, which have taken an average of 1,700 days. JPMorgan analysts asked in a client note on Wednesday, “With each $1,000 phase taking about two-thirds less time than the previous one, and considering the law of diminishing returns alongside investors’ attraction for round numbers, could the $4,000 mark be just around the corner?”
Mortgage rates have barely budged in the last month. That, and a broader concern among consumers about the state of the economy, has also kept mortgage demand muted. Total mortgage application volume dropped 1.6% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, decreased to 6.70% from 6.71%, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.60, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. Applications to refinance a home loan dropped 6% for the week and were 57% higher than the same week one year ago. The annual comparison is so large because the total volume is so low. Mortgage rates were 21 basis points higher the same week one year ago. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 2% for the week and were 9% higher than the same week a year ago. Demand from buyers was at its highest level since the end of January, driven by a 3% increase in conventional purchases. Demand for government loans, favored by lower-income borrowers, was down 2%.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices) | ||||
| Mar. 28, 2025 | Apr. 4, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $ 3,077.76 | $ 3,025.77 | -51.99 | -1.69% |
| Silver | $ 34.05 | $ 29.57 | -4.48 | -13.16% |
| Platinum | $ 985.21 | $ 922.42 | -62.79 | -6.37% |
| Palladium | $ 978.86 | $ 928.50 | -50.36 | -5.14% |
| Dow | 41578.86 | 38274.61 | -3304.25 | -7.95% |
Month End to Month End Close
| Month End to Month End Close | ||||
| Feb. 28, 2025 | Mar. 31, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $ 2,837.80 | $ 3,118.01 | 280.21 | 9.87% |
| Silver | $ 30.95 | $ 33.94 | 2.99 | 9.66% |
| Platinum | $ 941.13 | $ 999.53 | 58.40 | 6.21% |
| Palladium | $ 919.85 | $ 989.59 | 69.74 | 7.58% |
| Dow | 43840.72 | 42001.76 | -1838.96 | -4.19% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Previous Year Comparisons | ||||
| Apr. 5, 2024 | Apr. 4, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $ 2,326.33 | $ 3,025.77 | 699.44 | 30.07% |
| Silver | $ 27.44 | $ 29.57 | 2.13 | 7.76% |
| Platinum | $ 930.75 | $ 922.42 | -8.33 | -0.89% |
| Palladium | $ 1,003.87 | $ 928.50 | -75.37 | -7.51% |
| Dow | 38912.45 | 38274.61 | -637.84 | -1.64% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3021/2984/2945 | 33.31/32.38/31.72 |
| Resistance | 3060/3096/3135 | 33.96/34.90/35.55 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 960/946/921 | 962/939/920 |
| Resistance | 986/1000/1025 | 981/1004/1023 |