1. Gold and silver prices are solidly higher on corrective bounces after strong selling pressure on Friday that did produce some near-term technical damage. A better risk appetite in the general marketplace to start the trading week may cap the upside for both metals. Markets calmer to start trading week as U.S., China tries to ease their tensions. Technically, December gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bearish “key reversal” occurred Friday, which is one chart clue that a market top is in place. The Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,392.00. The silver bulls have an overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the contract/record high of $53.765. The key outside markets today sees the U.S. dollar index firmer. Crude oil prices are down a bit and trading around $57.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.02%.
2. Today’s mortgage rates have decreased a little. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen by three basis points to 6.27%, and the 15-year fixed rate is down one basis point to 5.52%. We’ve been seeing small fluctuations in rates recently, and mortgage rates may continue this trend until the government shutdown is resolved. Because the changes are minor, deciding whether it’s the right time to buy a house probably depends more on your financial situation than on what home loan rates are doing.
3. Long-term interest rates reversed their backslide a bit last Friday, as traders got a bit less gloomy about potential cracks in the banking system, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates a bit more than planned. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rate, which helps drive borrowing costs on mortgages, climbed back above 4%. It had breached that mark on Thursday, when it closed at 3.97%, and had been sliding again earlier on Friday before closing above 4%. The declines last week followed concerns over the health of some banks’ loan portfolios, as troubles with a corporate borrower emerged at a couple of regional banks out West. Investors have been “driven by the perception that underneath strong economic numbers, there are crevasses of credit and valuation risks that are deepening and broadening,” Viktor Shvets, a strategist at Macquarie, wrote on Friday.
4. The proportion of U.S. companies beating earnings expectations this quarter is the highest in more than four years, providing stock investors with relief at a time the rally is slowing. About 85% of S&P 500 firms to have reported third-quarter earnings so far have surpassed profit estimates, on course for the best performance since 2021, according to data compiled. It’s still early in the season, given that less than a fifth of the index market capitalization has announced results, but it’s an indication that profits remain strong in the face of tariffs and an uncertain economy. “U.S. companies should continue to deliver superior earnings growth supported by a robust AI investment cycle, ongoing deficit spending, and a still resilient consumer,” JPMorgan Chase strategists Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said recently.
5. There was no unemployment report for this week.
6. Oil prices climbed roughly 5% on Thursday after the administration unveiled sanctions on two major Russian energy companies in an effort to end the war in Ukraine. West Texas Intermediate futures rose more than 5% to hover above $61 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent futures also climbed to around $65, marking their biggest one-day move since June 13 when tensions in the Middle East escalated.
7. The EUR/USD recedes from earlier tops around 1.1650 as the North America session enters its latter part on Friday, coming under fresh downside pressure on the back of a mild recovery in the U.S. Dollar. Moving forward, investors will shift their attention to the upcoming Fed and ECB meetings.
8. The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure against the U.S. Dollar on Friday, with USD/JPY trading around 152.80, up for the sixth straight day. The Greenback rebounded sharply after a brief dip triggered by softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index data, as upbeat business activity readings from the United States helped the Greenback regain footing.
Gold extended losses in a choppy session, after suffering the worst rout in over 12 years on Tuesday on concerns its rally had run too far, too fast. Spot gold slid below $4,080 an ounce as European trading got underway, after swings that saw it slump almost 3% earlier and then recover. That was a day after bullion tumbled as much as 6.3%, with technical indicators showing a price surge that broke successive records this year was likely overstretched. “Technical selling has been the main culprit,” said Suki Cooper, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered Plc. “Prices have been trading in overbought territory since the start of September,” she said, adding that the bank expected gold to regain its momentum next year.
Inflation held stubbornly around 3% in September; government data showed Friday but came in slightly cooler than analysts expected across the board as investors continue to assess the Federal Reserve’s path toward its 2% target. The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year over year in September, up from 2.9% in August but slightly below economist expectations for a 3.1% increase. That marks the highest reading since May and remains above the 12-month average of 2.7%. Month over month, prices rose 0.3%, below August’s 0.4% rise and also lower than economists’ expectations of a 0.4% monthly gain. Despite still-stubborn prices in September, markets still expect the Fed to deliver a quarter-point cut at next week’s policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The U.S. economy has defied calls for a slowdown for two years — dodging a recession despite various tariff shocks, higher borrowing costs, and geopolitical turmoil. The reason why? Artificial intelligence. BNP Paribas chief U.S. economist James Egelhof put it bluntly in a roundtable with reporters this week: “AI has kept the economy out of a recession.” AI-driven investment has offset the drag from higher rates, fueling a surge in data centers and chip spending that’s kept growth humming. Bank of America Research estimates AI-related capex added 1.3 percentage points to second quarter GDP growth, while small business payments to tech services jumped nearly 7% year over year in September. Even outside the AI buildout, the ripple effects are clear: Soaring stock prices have fueled high-end spending, and a surge in business confidence has kept companies hiring and investing, rather than hitting the brakes. “The AI boom has convinced the broader business community that a robust expansion and productivity surge lies just over the horizon,” Egelhof said.
Sales of previously owned homes rose 1.5% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 4.06 million units. That is slightly less than the analysts were forecasting, but the highest pace in seven months. Sales were 4.1% higher compared with September of last year. This count is based on closings, so people signing contracts likely in July and August, when mortgage rates were coming down but were not as low as they are now. The average rate on the 30-year fixed started July at 6.67% and is now at 6.17%, according to Mortgage News Daily. “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.”
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Oct. 17, 2025 | Oct. 24, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $4,219.97 | $4,106.87 | -113.10 | -2.68% |
| Silver | $51.57 | $48.53 | -3.04 | -5.89% |
| Platinum | $1,618.79 | $1,612.97 | -5.82 | -0.36% |
| Palladium | $1,485.25 | $1,443.30 | -41.95 | -2.82% |
| Dow | 46190.49 | 47207.12 | 1016.63 | 2.20% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Oct. 25, 2024 | Oct. 24, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,744.06 | $4,106.87 | 1362.81 | 49.66% |
| Silver | $33.71 | $48.53 | 14.82 | 43.96% |
| Platinum | $1,024.60 | $1,612.97 | 588.37 | 57.42% |
| Palladium | $1,199.63 | $1,443.30 | 243.67 | 20.31% |
| Dow | 42110.61 | 47207.12 | 5096.51 | 12.10% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 4046/3842/3675 | 49.63/47.36/44.93 |
| Resistance | 4212/4416/4583 | 52.06/54.33/56.76 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1559/1505/1418 | 1379/1276/1145 |
| Resistance | 1700/1788/1842 | 1510/1612/1743 |