1. The Federal Reserve’s policy committee meets next on Oct. 28 and 29, and policymakers are widely expected to cut the central bank’s key interest rate to lower borrowing costs and prevent the shaky job market from collapsing. Investors expect the Federal Open Market Committee to reduce the fed funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4%. That would mark the lowest level for the fed funds rate since December 2022. The Fed cut the key rate in September for the first time since December. Fed officials have said they’re cutting interest rates to boost the economy and prevent a surge of unemployment. The Fed is tasked by Congress with a “dual mandate” to keep inflation low and employment high using the fed funds rate, which is the interest rate banks charge to borrow money from one another. The fed funds rate affects borrowing costs on short-term loans like credit cards and car loans and indirectly influences longer-term loans like 30-year mortgages.
2. Gold climbed to a record above $3,800 an ounce as precious metals surged, boosted by a weaker dollar as investors weighed a potential U.S. government shutdown. Bullion rose as much as 2% to an all-time high of $3,833.59 an ounce, eclipsing a peak reached last Tuesday — after notching six straight weekly gains. Silver increased as much as 2.4%, while platinum and palladium also rallied strongly, with advances underpinned by persistent market tightness. Gold has soared 46% this year, setting successive peaks on central-bank demand and a resumption of interest-rate cuts by the Fed.
3. Sales of previously owned U.S. homes increased solidly in August as lower mortgage rates pulled buyers back into the market, though a softening labor market could curb further gains. The National Association of Realtors said on Monday that pending home sales, based on signed contracts, rebounded 4.0% last month. Economists polled had forecasted contracts, which become sales after a month or two, rising 0.2%. Pending home sales advanced 3.8% from a year earlier. “Lower mortgage rates are enabling more homebuyers to go under contract,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist. The rate on the popular 30-year mortgage is near an 11-month low, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.
4. U.S. consumer confidence declined more than expected in September amid mounting worries over the availability of jobs. The Conference Board said on Tuesday its consumer confidence index dropped by 3.6 points to 94.2 this month. Economists had forecasted the index dipping to 96.0. “Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multi-year low,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at the Conference Board. “This is consistent with the decline in job openings.”
5. David Solomon expects the U.S. economy to accelerate into 2026 as tailwinds from continued stimulus and tech spending outweigh a softer labor market and geopolitical turmoil. Government spending and “all of the AI infrastructure build” means, on balance, the economy was “still in pretty good shape,” the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO said, despite the impact of tariffs and a slower job market. The banking boss also expects dealmaking to pick up even further in the U.S., he said in an interview. The “changed regulatory environment” means CEOs are increasingly ambitious when it comes to M&A. Solomon said he expects a drawdown from equity markets in the next 12 to 24 months. But that shouldn’t be a surprise given the long runup in stocks, seen particularly in the largest AI-driven technology plays. “I’m not going to bed every night worrying about what’s happening next,” he said.
6. U.S. employers announced fewer layoffs in September, but hiring plans so far this year were the lowest since 2009, a report said on Thursday, adding to evidence of a labor market standstill as the demand and supply of workers fall because of policy and technology advances. The 15th government shutdown since 1981, which will lead to the furlough of 750,000 federal workers, has also delayed the publishing of the weekly jobless claims report.
7. Oil prices were stable on Friday but were still headed for a weekly loss of about 7-8% after news of potential increases in OPEC+ supply. Brent crude futures were up 29 cents, or 0.5%, at $64.40 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 27 cents, or 0.5%, at $60.75. For the week, Brent was trading 8.2% down, and WTI was on course for a 7.6% decline.
8. The EUR/USD remains confined in a tight band above 1.1700 in the European trading hours on Friday. The U.S. Dollar consolidates weekly losses amid shutdown-led data blackout and Fed rate-cut hopes, while the Euro awaits ECB-speak and EU PPI inflation data for fresh directives.
9. The Japanese Yen extends the previous day’s retracement slide from a two-week top touched against a broadly recovering U.S. Dollar and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Friday. Government data showed earlier today that the Unemployment Rate in Japan rose more than expected, to 2.6% in August.
As uncertainty deepens amid the U.S. government’s first shutdown in almost seven years, the gold frenzy continues to climb to new heights. The going price for New York spot gold hit a record of $3,858.45 per troy ounce, the standard for measuring precious metals as of market close Tuesday, ahead of the shutdown beginning overnight. And futures continued to climb on Wednesday, closing in on the $3,900 mark as of midday trading. Gold sales can rise sharply when anxious investors seek “safe havens” for parking their money. Before Wednesday, the assets, and other metals, like silver, have seen wider gains over the last year. Gold futures rose more than 45% from the start of 2025, trading at just over $3,895 by around 12:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Other precious metals have also raked in gains, with silver seeing an even bigger percentage jump year to date. Silver futures are up more than 59%, trading at nearly $48 per ounce as of midday Wednesday.
U.S. mortgage rates rose for the first time in five weeks, thwarting a budding recovery in housing demand and abruptly halting a recent flurry of home refinancing. The contract rate on a 30-year mortgage climbed 12 basis points to 6.46% in the week ended Sept. 26, according to Mortgage Bankers Association. Adjustable-rate and 15-year fixed mortgages also increased last week. The group’s measure of refinancing tumbled nearly 21%, the largest retreat this year, after reaching the highest level since early 2022. The index of home-purchase applications slipped 1%.
The government shutdown precluded Friday’s release of the monthly jobs report while putting other important federal data gathering and reporting on hold. The monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a key gauge of economic health closely watched by investors and policymakers, wasn’t released as scheduled this morning, leaving unanswered questions about the health of the labor market. Through August, the report showed signs of a slowdown in the job market, with revisions released last month showing the economy actually shed jobs in June while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% as of August. The longer the shutdown stretches on, the bigger deal it will be for those awaiting the official jobs data, notably the Federal Reserve.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Sept. 26, 2025 | Oct. 3, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,782.39 | $3,881.89 | 99.50 | 2.63% |
| Silver | $46.59 | $47.84 | 1.25 | 2.68% |
| Platinum | $1,571.50 | $1,601.24 | 29.74 | 1.89% |
| Palladium | $1,284.81 | $1,265.75 | -19.06 | -1.48% |
| Dow | 46246.09 | 46761.72 | 515.63 | 1.11% |
Month End to Month End Close
| Aug. 29, 2025 | Sept. 30, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,443.82 | $ 3,844.05 | 400.23 | 11.62% |
| Silver | $39.78 | $ 46.45 | 6.67 | 16.77% |
| Platinum | $1,372.15 | $ 1,567.62 | 195.47 | 14.25% |
| Palladium | $1,108.50 | $ 1,257.14 | 148.64 | 13.41% |
| Dow | 45545.78 | 46397.89 | 852.11 | 1.87% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Oct. 4, 2024 | Oct. 3, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,650.06 | $3,881.89 | 1231.83 | 46.48% |
| Silver | $32.21 | $47.84 | 15.63 | 48.53% |
| Platinum | $993.90 | $1,601.24 | 607.34 | 61.11% |
| Palladium | $1,002.80 | $1,265.75 | 262.95 | 26.22% |
| Dow | 42356.16 | 46761.72 | 4405.56 | 10.40% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3744/3698/3637 | 45.23/43.81/41.59 |
| Resistance | 3852/3913/4010 | 47.44/48.87/51.08 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1519/1451/1330 | 1239/1184/1095 |
| Resistance | 1640/1708/1828 | 1328/1383/1472 |