1. Gold prices rose to a new record on Monday, putting the precious metal on pace for its largest annual gain in more than 45 years. Gold futures surged to around $3,750, while bullion for immediate delivery traded above $3,700 per ounce. The precious metal is up more than 40% year to date, marking its best year since 1979. Gold’s monster run this year has been partly driven by expectations of a Fed easing cycle, which started last week when policymakers cut interest rates by 25 basis points and signaled two more reductions in 2025. A weaker dollar has also powered gold, which is priced in U.S. currency. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, is down roughly 10% year to date.
2. An uptick in consumer spending helped the U.S. economy expand at a surprising 3.8% from April through June, the government reported in a dramatic upgrade of its previous estimate of second-quarter growth. U.S. gross domestic product, the nation’s output of goods and services, rebounded in the spring from a 0.6% first-quarter drop. The department had previously estimated second-quarter growth at 3.3%, and forecasters had expected a repeat of that figure. Consumer spending rose at a 2.5% pace, up from 0.6% in the first quarter and well above the 1.6% the government previously estimated. Spending on services advanced at a 2.6% annual pace, more than double the government’s previous estimate of 1.2%.
3. Longer-term Treasury yields jumped last week, flying in the face of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, as bond investors didn’t get the assurances they sought. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped as high as 4.145% after briefly falling below 4% last week. The 30-year Treasury yield — closely followed for its connection to home mortgages, traded around 4.76%, up from a low of 4.604% earlier in the week. Traders of longer-dated bonds don’t want the Fed to be cutting interest rates. Their selling of long-term bonds drove down the price and drove up the yield. Prices and yields for bonds move in an inverse direction. Investors have been looking for the Fed to shift its emphasis from fighting inflation to boosting the labor market following weak employment data earlier this month. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called Wednesday’s rate cut a “risk management” move, pointing to the softening labor market. Additionally, higher yields last week came after longer-dated bond prices had steadily risen in recent months, sending yields lower. It was a similar move as was seen following the Fed’s rate cut in September of last year.
4. Sales of electric vehicles in the United States are almost certain to tumble when the $7,500 federal tax credit for EV buyers expires on October 1, leaving automakers and car buyers wondering where prices will go. The end of the tax credit means demand for EVs is expected to fall, which means prices in real terms will rise — a concept not lost on the many consumers who rushed to buy EVs in August and September. But that surge is likely to result in plunging sales in the final three months of the year and could lead to somewhat lower EV prices ahead. EV sales have been growing steadily for years, and at a faster pace than traditional gas-powered cars. Automakers are also likely to respond to a drop in demand by cutting production of EVs. That could mean limited availability of some vehicles on dealer lots, and therefore less pressure to lower prices.
5. The U.S. current account deficit contracted by the most on record in the second quarter as a flood of imports subsided. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Tuesday the current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, decreased by a record $188.5 billion, or 42.9%, to $251.3 billion, reversing the prior month’s jump. Data for the first quarter was revised to show the gap at $439.8 billion, still an all-time high, instead of $450.2 billion as previously reported. Economists polled had forecasted the current account deficit declining to $256.8 billion last quarter.
6. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, but the labor market has lost its luster amid an anemic pace of hiring. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended September 20, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled had forecasted 235,000 claims for the latest week.
7. Crude oil prices today were set for their sharpest weekly rise since early June, when Israel launched a missile strike on Iran. This time, the jump was triggered by the news that Russia would introduce curbs on diesel exports, suggesting supply tightness. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $69.59 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $65.21 per barrel.
8. EUR/USD now accelerates its rebound and approaches the key 1.1700 barrier in quite an optimistic end to the trading week. The daily uptick in spot follows the renewed downside bias in the U.S. Dollar, as latest PCE prints seem to have left further rate cuts by the Fed on the table.
9. The U.S. Dollar is heading higher for the third day in a row on Friday against a softer Japanese Yen. The pair remains bid, with bulls aiming for the 150.00 level, on track for a 1.3% weekly gain with investors awaiting the PCE Price Index release for further insight into the Fed’s near-term rate path.
Gold climbed to a fresh record, with traders weighing China’s plan to become a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves in a bid to strengthen its standing in the global bullion market. The People’s Bank of China is using the Shanghai Gold Exchange to court central banks in friendly countries to buy bullion and store it within the country’s borders, according to people familiar with the matter. The Asian nation is the world’s biggest producer and consumer of the precious metal, and the country taking a bigger role in the global bullion market could mean looser import restrictions, or a broader role for gold in the financial services sector. Gold and silver have been among this year’s best-performing major commodities on a broad confluence of supportive factors, as the Fed eases monetary policy, central banks bolster their reserve holdings, and lingering geopolitical tensions sustain a bid for havens.
Last week, the Fed voted to cut interest rates in a decision that expressed unity despite a sole dissent. But a mere week later, commentary from central bankers is foreshadowing disagreement to come. In a speech on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell again outlined the Fed’s risks of cutting too much too soon or too little too late. Not surprisingly, his solution is more of the “wait and see” ethos that has characterized his tenure. New Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran said Monday he wants central bank interest rates to be roughly 2 percentage points lower, arguing that the current level is too high, posing risks to the economy. “Monetary policy is well into restrictive territory,” Miran said in a speech at the Economic Club of New York. “Leaving short-term interest rates roughly 2 percentage points too tight risks unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment.” But while it might be tempting to cast Miran and his views as a sideshow on the losing side of an 11-to-1 vote, his influence is likely to grow as he works to convince his colleagues to adopt a more dovish approach, and as the conversation evolves from unity into an array of opinions.
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes surged in August, but the boost from declining mortgage rates could be limited by a weakening labor market. New home sales shot up 20.5% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 800,000 units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Wednesday. The sales pace for July was revised higher to a rate of 664,000 units from the previously reported pace of 652,000 units. Economists polled had forecasted new home sales, which make up about 14% of U.S. home sales, easing to a rate of 650,000 units. New home sales, which are counted at the signing of a contract, are volatile on a month-to-month basis and subject to big revisions. They soared 15.4% on a year-over-year basis in August.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Sept. 19, 2025 | Sept. 26, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,678.72 | $3,782.39 | 103.67 | 2.82% |
| Silver | $42.90 | $46.59 | 3.69 | 8.60% |
| Platinum | $1,410.94 | $1,571.50 | 160.56 | 11.38% |
| Palladium | $1,154.63 | $1,284.81 | 130.18 | 11.27% |
| Dow | 46314.57 | 46246.09 | -68.48 | -0.15% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Sept. 27, 2024 | Sept. 26, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,644.99 | $3,782.39 | 1137.40 | 43.00% |
| Silver | $31.47 | $46.59 | 15.12 | 48.05% |
| Platinum | $1,005.90 | $1,571.50 | 565.60 | 56.23% |
| Palladium | $1,015.49 | $1,284.81 | 269.32 | 26.52% |
| Dow | 42333.07 | 46246.09 | 3913.02 | 9.24% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3673/3638/3591 | 42.44/41.77/40.44 |
| Resistance | 3754/3800/3845 | 45.78/46.65/47.15 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1392/1368/1329 | 1169/1120/1087 |
| Resistance | 1494/1550/1583 | 1202/1251/1284 |