1. Top Wall Street strategists said the record-setting U.S. stock rally risks temporarily running out of steam after an expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this week. Strategists from Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Oppenheimer Asset Management warned that a more cautious tone may replace the bullish mood as investors focus instead on a potential economic slowdown. Expectations of Fed easing have provided much of the latest impetus for the S&P 500, which is near a record high. Concerns are increasing, though, that a 25 basis-point cut on Wednesday won’t go far enough to address a slowing labor market. Investors are also still trying to gauge the impact of tariffs on inflation, which remains above the Fed’s 2% target. “Near-term risk is centered on the tension between lagging, weak labor data and the Fed’s response that may not meet the markets’ ‘need for speed,’” Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said.
2. Gold dipped from Tuesday’s record as most asset classes saw muted moves ahead of the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision later today. Bullion traded about $40 below its record high of $3,703.07 an ounce set in the previous session. Traders are focusing on the outcome of the Fed’s rate-setting meeting, where they see a quarter-point cut this week as a certainty. Lower rates are positive for the non-interest-bearing precious metal.
3. Some U.S. consumers are showing increased signs of stress as inflation and higher interest rates are affecting affordability and leading to financial strain on borrowers, credit scoring company Fair Isaac Corporation, widely known as FICO, said on Tuesday. The overall national FICO score has dipped slightly by about 2 points. About 38.1% of the population scored between 600 and 749 points in 2021, while only 33.8% of the population ranked in these middle ranges in 2025. Gen Z adults in the U.S. – those currently in their teens and 20s – have seen the sharpest decrease in their scores, driven by student loan pressure.
4. U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August, but momentum could ease amid labor market weakness and rising goods prices because of tariffs on imports. Retail sales rose 0.6% last month after an upwardly revised 0.6% advance in July. Economists polled had forecasted retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, rising 0.2% following a previously reported 0.5% gain in June. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services increased 0.7% last month after an unrevised 0.5% advance in July. These core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.
5. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, but the labor market has softened as both demand for, and supply of workers, have diminished. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended September 13, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
6. Crude oil futures are on track to close higher this week, bolstered by renewed geopolitical tensions, a bullish inventory report, and monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. But gains have been tempered by persistent concerns around U.S. economic softness and signs of weak fuel demand. As of Thursday’s close, light crude was up 1.40% on the week at $63.21, with one trading session remaining. This week’s price action is driven almost entirely by shifting fundamental forces, with market participants weighing conflicting cues from supply risks, policy shifts, and demand signals.
7. EUR/USD now manages to gather some buying interest, bouncing off earlier lows near 1.1720 and reclaiming the 1.1760-1.1770 band at the end of the week. The modest bullish attempt comes on the back of some loss of impetus in the U.S. Dollar, which nonetheless remains underpinned by the broad-based advance in US yields and firm sentiment, all following the FOMC event.
8. USD/JPY pares losses and swings higher toward 148.00 in early Europe on Friday, as Governor Ueda addresses the press conference. The BoJ kept the interest rate steady at 0.50% as widely expected, with two hawkish dissents fueling the rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY).
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point Wednesday, its first reduction of 2025, and projected two more cuts for the rest of this year. The central bank voted in a split decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. The 25-basis point cut marked the first time the Fed has eased rates since last December. Newly confirmed Fed governor Stephen Miran disagreed with the decision, preferring to cut rates by a half a percentage point. “I think we were right to wait,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at his press conference Wednesday, reiterating that time was needed to assess the impacts of tariffs on the economy. It was a slight rebuke to criticisms that he was “too late” to consider a cut for much of this year. Powell also downplayed the notion that many inside the central bank were in favor of a bigger cut, saying “there wasn’t widespread support at all for a 50-basis point cut today,” while sidestepping any direct comment on whether Miran’s appointment threatens the Fed’s independence.
New Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran said Friday he favored a jumbo-sized interest rate cut at the Fed’s meeting earlier this week because he doesn’t see any inflation from tariffs and believes the central bank’s rate should be closer to a level that neither restricts the economy nor spurs it. “I don’t see any material inflation from tariffs,” Miran said in an interview, pointing to prices of imported goods on a “core” basis, excluding volatile food and energy. “You’d think imports would be differentially inflating at a higher pace,” he said. Miran was the lone dissenter this week in a decision by the rest of his colleagues to cut rates by a quarter point, preferring to cut rates by half a percentage point instead.
U.S. single-family homebuilding and permits for future construction dropped in August amid a glut of unsold new houses and a softening labor market, shrugging off falling mortgage rates. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, fell 7.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 890,000 units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Permits for future single-family homebuilding decreased 2.2% to a rate of 856,000 units. The rate on the popular 30-year mortgage has dropped to an 11-month low of 6.35% last week from around 7.04% in mid-January, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.
The economy can count on the American consumer. That was true in the pandemic years and the high-inflation era that followed, just as it is in the first months of the new tariff regime. The most affluent consumers account for a bigger share of total U.S. spending, reinforcing the lopsided dynamic of unbothered consumption for the wealthy and more cautious shopping for everyone else. Americans in the bottom 80% of the income distribution, those making less than $175,000 a year, are barely keeping their spending on pace with inflation, according to an analysis by Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. Meanwhile, the top 20% of consumers are growing their spending. “The data also show that the economy is being largely powered by the well-to-do,” Zandi said.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Sept. 12, 2025 | Sept. 19, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,648.83 | $3,678.72 | 29.89 | 0.82% |
| Silver | $42.31 | $42.90 | 0.59 | 1.39% |
| Platinum | $1,405.09 | $1,410.94 | 5.85 | 0.42% |
| Palladium | $1,214.38 | $1,154.63 | -59.75 | -4.92% |
| Dow | 45834.22 | 46314.57 | 480.35 | 1.05% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Sept. 20, 2024 | Sept. 19, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,619.60 | $3,678.72 | 1059.12 | 40.43% |
| Silver | $31.13 | $42.90 | 11.77 | 37.81% |
| Platinum | $979.30 | $1,410.94 | 431.64 | 44.08% |
| Palladium | $1,076.99 | $1,154.63 | 77.64 | 7.21% |
| Dow | 42061.85 | 46314.57 | 4252.72 | 10.11% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3632/3590/3537 | 41.73/40.97/39.75 |
| Resistance | 3685/3727/3780 | 42.95/43.71/44.93 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1387/1364/1334 | 1124/1047/991 |
| Resistance | 1417/1439/1469 | 1256/1312/1389 |