1. Federal Reserve governor Michelle Bowman said Saturday that she is looking at three interest rate cuts this year given concerns about the strength of the job market and the overall U.S. economy. Bowman said she sees a risk that further delays in cutting rates could “result in a deterioration in labor market conditions and a further slowing in economic growth.” Bowman voted against the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged last month, preferring the central bank to lower its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%. Fed Governor Chris Waller joined Bowman in voting against the Fed decision on July 31. In recent days, San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari have also made comments that set the table for cutting rates as soon as next month, citing concerns over a weakening job market.
2. Gold and silver prices are posting strong losses in early trading, amid keen uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs on gold imports. December gold was last down $80.50 at $3,410.80. September silver prices were last down $0.682 at $37.865. Gold prices have been hit hard today, after a strong rally early Friday, as traders await further clarification from the administration over its gold import tariff policy. The administration had exempted the precious metal from duties back in April, and until there is long-term clarity precious metals markets may remain on edge. Joseph Cavatoni, senior market strategist for North America at the World Gold Council, wrote that “we see the various segments of the gold markets behaving in an orderly manner as the industry awaits this potential clarification”. UPDATE: Elsewhere on Monday, President Trump said imports of gold to the U.S. would not face a tariff. “Gold will not be Tariffed!” Trump wrote on social media.
3. Producer prices in July rose faster than forecast across the board, giving investors and the Federal Reserve an inflation surprise just over a week out from Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s crucial Jackson Hole speech. The Producer Price Index for July showed inflation for businesses rose 0.9% over the prior month in July, well ahead of the 0.2% increase that was forecast data from the BLS showed Thursday. On an annual basis, prices rose 3.3%, the most since February. On an annual basis, consumer prices rose 3.1% in July, an increase from 2.9% the prior month and still well ahead of the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
4. Retail sales in July rose 0.5% from the prior month, a rise that was slightly below Wall Street forecasts but a sign the consumer continues to steady the ship after a dramatic drop in spending this spring. Economists had expected retail sales to rise 0.6% from the prior month in July, according to the data. Excluding autos and gas, retail sales rose 0.2% last month. Friday’s report marks the second straight month retail sales rose after two months of declines in May and April, with May’s 0.9% heightening fears over the health of the U.S. consumer. June’s retail sales were also revised higher on Friday, with new data showing sales jumped 0.9% from the prior month, more than the 0.6% rise initially reported.
5. A widely followed measure of inflation accelerated slightly less than expected in July on an annual basis as tariffs showed mostly modest impacts. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That compared to the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.2% and 2.8%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, compared to the forecasts for 0.3% and 3%. Federal Reserve officials generally consider core inflation to be a better reading for longer-term trends.
6. The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell last week amid low layoffs, but a reluctance by businesses to boost hiring because of softening domestic demand could drive the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 224,000 for the week ended August 9, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled had forecast 228,000 claims for the latest week.
7. Oil prices climbed about 2% to a one-week high on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of “severe consequences” if his talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine fail and on expectations that a U.S. interest rate cut next month could spur oil demand. Brent crude futures rose $1.21, or 1.84%, to close at $66.84 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.31, or 2.09%, to settle at $63.96. Those price gains pushed both crude benchmarks out of technically oversold territory for the first time in three days and put Brent on track for its highest close since August 6.
8. EUR/USD regains its traction and trades in positive territory above 1.1650 after closing in the red on Thursday. The Dollar struggles to find demand ahead of key macroeconomic data releases and the highly anticipated meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin.
9. The Japanese Yen regains some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday and stalls the previous day’s sharp retracement slide from a three-week high touched against its American counterpart. Data released earlier today showed that Japan’s economy expanded more than expected in the second quarter despite U.S. tariff headwinds.
Traders are snapping up risky assets of all stripes in the hope that falling U.S. interest rates will add rocket fuel to an economy that’s so far been able to withstand the effects of tariffs. Wall Street is set to extend record highs when trading begins on Wednesday, with shares of small-cap, emerging-market and semiconductor companies leading gains. Across global markets, everything from volatility indexes to speculative European bank bonds to crypto is underscoring a sense of confidence about corporate profits and global economic growth. The latest economic readings also paint a picture of a soft labor market and inflation that’s been in line with expectations, which may allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its next meeting. “The mood is surprisingly bullish; it’s almost like ‘what tariffs, who cares?” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors. “There’s this detachment from economic reality on what’s happening and there’s a wave of either optimism or exuberance in equity markets.”
Homeowners are clearly looking for savings, even if it means taking on a riskier mortgage. Refinance demand, along with renewed demand for adjustable-rate loans, drove a sharp increase in overall applications last week. Total mortgage application volume rose 10.9% from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, decreased to 6.67% from 6.77%, with points increasing to 0.64 from 0.59, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate is 13 basis points higher than it was the same week one year ago. The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs (adjustable-rate mortgages) decreased to 5.80% from 6.06%. ARM loans are generally fixed for a term but then adjust to market rates, making them riskier products. Applications to refinance a home loan jumped 23% for the week and were 8% higher than the same week one year ago. That was the strongest week for refinancing since last April. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 46.5% of total applications from 41.5% the previous week.
Mortgage rates drifted lower this week, hitting the lowest level since October 2024. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.58% through Wednesday, according to Freddie Mac data, down from 6.63% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the average 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.71%, from 5.75% a week earlier. After spending much of 2025 stuck in a narrow range between 6.6% and 6.8%, mortgage rates are falling now after hiring data released in early August showed weak job growth in recent months. In response to the job weakness and data showing inflation in July was still sticky, but below economists’ expectations, traders see a 91% chance of the Fed dropping interest rates by 25 basis points next month.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Aug. 8, 2025 | Aug. 15, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,388.51 | $3,336.14 | -52.37 | -1.55% |
| Silver | $38.21 | $37.98 | -0.23 | -0.60% |
| Platinum | $1,337.56 | $1,342.39 | 4.83 | 0.36% |
| Palladium | $1,130.00 | $1,120.20 | -9.80 | -0.87% |
| Dow | 44176.10 | 44946.12 | 770.02 | 1.74% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Aug. 16, 2024 | Aug. 15, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,499.00 | $3,336.14 | 837.14 | 33.50% |
| Silver | $28.81 | $37.98 | 9.17 | 31.83% |
| Platinum | $955.15 | $1,342.39 | 387.24 | 40.54% |
| Palladium | $949.30 | $1,120.20 | 170.90 | 18.00% |
| Dow | 40662.46 | 44946.12 | 4283.66 | 10.53% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3359/3320/3295 | 37.16/35.98/35.30 |
| Resistance | 3423/3448/3487 | 39.03/39.71/40.88 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1305/1275/1249 | 1185/1041/969 |
| Resistance | 1361/1387/1471 | 1201/1273/1318 |