1. Stocks pointed mostly higher on Monday after the U.S. and European Union struck a trade pact to lead off a packed week of Big Tech earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, inflation data, and the July jobs report. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite put on nearly 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, after closing out Friday at fresh record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average floated around the flatline. An initial boost to market sentiment faded in as investors digested the conflicting details in the U.S.-EU deal framework. But stocks are still on track to resume a rally that saw the S&P 500 notch its fifth all-time high in a row on Friday. Investor eyes are now turning to a packed week on Wall Street.
2. Global trade and fiscal debt concerns are feeding into a flight to safer assets, sharpening gold’s edge as a haven from risk, prompting analysts in a poll to sharply raise their forecasts. The poll of 40 analysts and traders returned a median forecast of $3,220 per troy ounce of gold for this year, up from $3,065 predicted in a poll three months ago. The 2026 estimate rose to $3,400 from $3,000. Spot gold prices are up 27% so far this year after hitting a record $3,500 per ounce in April with the U.S. and China in the midst of a full-blown trade war, triggering regular forays into safe-haven assets. “The first half of 2025 confirmed what many of us have long believed. Gold is not just a hedge. It is a signal,” said David Russell at GoldCore, calling $4,000 a realistic target by end-2026 should worries about the U.S. fiscal situation deepen further. Most analysts believe that central banks remain the bedrock of gold’s rally, driven by the long-term diversification of reserves away from dollar dominance.
3. Americans’ view of the U.S. economy improved this month, but Americans remain concerned about the impact of tariffs on their economic futures. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose two points to 97.2 in July, up from 95.2 the previous month. The increase in confidence was in line with analysts’ forecasts. In April, American consumers’ confidence in the economy sank to its lowest reading since May 2020, largely due to anxiety over the possible impact of tariffs. A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market rose 4.5 points to 74.4, however that’s still well below 80, the marker that can signal a recession ahead. Consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation inched down by 1.5 points to 131.5.
4. The Federal Reserve has decided to hold benchmark interest rates steady once again, but not all members of the Open Market Committee are in agreement. For the first time since 1993 more than one Fed governor voted against the Fed chairman Jerome Powell and the committee’s majority decision. The latest gross domestic product (GDP) data released this morning revealed that the economy grew three percent in the April through June period. The Fed’s statement on their decision took a more muted approach. ‘Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year,’ the committee stated. ‘The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.’
5. Private employers added more jobs than expected in July, rebounding after declining for the first time in more than two years during June. On Wednesday, data from ADP showed private payrolls grew by 104,000 in July, above the 75,000 expected by economists and well above the 23,000 job cuts seen in June. Wednesday’s data showed June’s job cuts were revised lower to 23,000 from an initially reported 33,000. “We are in a labor market that has recalibrated to a lower average level,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said on a call with reporters. “The good news here is that that level is still solid enough to support the consumer, and that ultimately will be the tried-and-true test of the health of the labor market. Will consumers keep spending?”
6. In the week ending July 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 224,500. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending July 19, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate.
7. Oil prices held onto recent gains in early Asian trading on Wednesday, buoyed by a complex mix of geopolitical risks, tightening trade policies, and anticipation surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. After surging more than 3% on Tuesday, both major crude benchmarks saw modest gains in early Asian trade. At the time of writing, WTI crude was up slightly at $69.24 per barrel, while Brent crude also edged higher to $72.66 per barrel, marking their highest levels since June 22.
8. The Euro (EUR) reversed sharply against the U.S. Dollar on Friday after the July Nonfarm Payrolls report surprised to the downside, catching markets off guard. The pair had been under pressure throughout the week, trading on the back foot as the dollar held firm on robust economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.
9. USD/JPY retreats from five-month highs near 151.00 in the Asian session on Friday. However, the BoJ’s unwillingness to pre-commit to rate hikes keeps the Japanese Yen undermined. Meanwhile, the recent U.S. Dollar rally, bolstered by the slightly more hawkish-than-expected Fed, acts as a tailwind for the pair ahead of the NFP release.
The latest monthly jobs report showed the U.S. labor market added fewer jobs than expected in July while the unemployment rate moved higher, and revisions to prior months’ numbers revealed significantly fewer jobs had been added than initially thought. The economy added 73,000 non-farm payrolls in July, less than the 104,000 expected by economists. The unemployment rate moved up to 4.2% from 4.1% the month prior, in line with economists’ expectations.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed to the lowest level in nearly two years in June as imports fell sharply, cementing economists’ expectations that trade likely accounted for much of an anticipated rebound in economic growth in the second quarter. The goods trade gap narrowed 10.8% to $86.0 billion last month, the lowest level since September 2023, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. Economists polled had forecasted the goods trade deficit would rise to $98.20 billion. The Census Bureau report also showed wholesale inventories increased 0.2% in June after declining by 0.3% in May.
The U.S. economy defied expectations to grow 3 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, despite fears of a trade tariff-induced slowdown and deteriorating consumer confidence. U.S. GDP rebounded from a 0.5 per cent contraction in the first quarter and exceeded growth forecasts of 2 per cent, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Wednesday. It came as the world’s biggest economy sharply cut back on foreign imports after stockpiling in the first quarter in efforts to beat the trade tariffs. Inflation was at 2.7 per cent in June while its labor market remains relatively robust, and investors expect the Fed to keep rates on hold until at least September.
Home contract signings slumped more than expected in June, the latest sign that the housing market is still essentially frozen. The Pending Home Sales Index slumped 0.8% from May and 2.8% from a year earlier to a reading of 72. A level of 100 is equal to contract activity in 2001. Economists had expected a small month-over-month gain and a smaller annual decline. Mortgage rates near 7%, coupled with high prices, have dampened the traditional spring homebuying season. Homes typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold, meaning June’s contract activity reflects the end of the typical busiest time of the year for sales.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| July. 25, 2025 | Aug. 1, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,336.00 | $3,347.88 | 11.88 | 0.36% |
| Silver | $38.23 | $36.89 | -1.34 | -3.51% |
| Platinum | $1,404.73 | $1,310.33 | -94.40 | -6.72% |
| Palladium | $1,229.30 | $1,213.79 | -15.51 | -1.26% |
| Dow | 44901.92 | 43588.58 | -1313.34 | -2.92% |
Month End to Month End Close
| June. 30, 2025 | July. 31, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,294.06 | $3,294.76 | 0.70 | 0.02% |
| Silver | $35.97 | $36.63 | 0.66 | 1.83% |
| Platinum | $1,341.55 | $1,292.07 | -49.48 | -3.69% |
| Palladium | $1,099.90 | $1,185.60 | 85.70 | 7.79% |
| Dow | 44094.77 | 44130.98 | 36.21 | 0.08% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Aug. 2, 2024 | Aug. 1, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,427.16 | $3,347.88 | 920.72 | 37.93% |
| Silver | $28.34 | $36.89 | 8.55 | 30.17% |
| Platinum | $959.25 | $1,310.33 | 351.08 | 36.60% |
| Palladium | $893.51 | $1,213.79 | 320.28 | 35.85% |
| Dow | 39753.09 | 43588.58 | 3835.49 | 9.65% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3295/3253/3181 | 36.95/35.96/35.15 |
| Resistance | 3409/3481/3523 | 39.16/40.15/40.75 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1323/1269/1230 | 1183/1144/1086 |
| Resistance | 1459/1513/1554 | 1280/1337/1376 |