1. U.S. wholesale inflation cooled last month, despite worries that tariffs would push prices higher for goods before they reach consumers. The Labor Department reported Wednesday that its producer price index was unchanged last month from May after rising 0.3% the previous month. June wholesale prices rose 2.3% from a year earlier, the smallest year-over-year gain since September. Both measures came in below what economists expected. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so called core producer prices were also unchanged from May and up 2.6% from June 2024. The report on wholesale inflation arrived a day after the Labor Department reported that consumer prices last month rose 2.7% from June 2024, the biggest year-over-year gain since February, as sweeping tariffs pushed up the cost of everything from groceries to appliances. Consumer prices and producers’ prices do not always move in tandem, however.
2. Silver climbed to an almost 14-year high as investors sought alternatives to a near-record gold price, with increased demand tightening physical supply. Spot silver rose as much as 1.9%, exceeding $39 an ounce, following last week’s 4% rally. The rise in appetite for the metal has left the physical market under strain in London, where most silver is held by exchange-traded funds — meaning it isn’t available to lend or buy. Silver’s outperformance of gold means that the ratio between the two has dropped in recent months, though silver still remains relatively cheap historically. It currently takes about 86 ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold, compared with a 10-year average of 80. “Silver demand is currently benefiting from the threat of trade wars and bullion being way out of reach for many,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, an analyst at Phillip Nova Pte Ltd. “Gold has already seen a tremendous upswing, and it’s currently expensive,” leaving investors more inclined to consider a cheaper alternative, she added. The metal is up 35% this year, surpassing gold’s 28% gain. As well as being a haven asset, silver also has industrial uses, most notably in solar panels. The market is headed for a fifth year in deficit, according to industry group The Silver Institute.
3. Relentless dollar-selling is starting to look like a bubble, and, like all bubbles, it will eventually pop, according to HSBC. Traders appear to be fixated on the dollar’s steep decline this year, and tempted to extrapolate that to future performance, HSBC strategists led by Paul Mackel wrote in a research note. That’s symptomatic of “bubbly-like” behavior. “It was not long ago that a strong USD bubble was evident, but the opposite is occurring: an ‘anti bubble’ of sorts,” the strategists wrote. “Bubbly-like’ characteristics exist, which is a warning sign that a USD bottom may not be far away.” The Dollar Spot Index has tumbled more than 8% this year as aggressive U.S. tariffs raised questions about the stability of the world’s reserve currency. HSBC sees dollar softness continuing in the coming months, but arguments for a more significant downside have become “overly one-sided,” the strategists said.
4. The annual home price growth in June was just 1.3%, down from 1.6% growth in May and the slowest rate in two years. Nearly one third of the largest 100 markets are now showing annual price declines of at least a full percentage point from recent highs, and the trend suggests more markets will do the same. Single family home prices were up 1.6%, while condominium prices were down 1.4% nationally. Inventory has been rising steadily over the past year, up 29% in June compared with the same month last year. The gains, however, began slowing this past spring. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage has hovered in the high 6% range for most of this year, double what it was during the early days of the pandemic, when home prices initially took off. “There are two competing forces in the housing market right now,” said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE. “Increasing inventory levels are helping to make homes more affordable, but prices are falling in an increasing number of markets and homes are taking longer to sell, which could make homeowners reluctant to list.”
5. The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell last week, pointing to steady job growth in July, though some laid-off workers are experiencing long spells of unemployment because of a moderation in hiring. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ended July 12, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled had forecasted 235,000 claims for the latest week.
6. Oil rose amid signs of tighter supplies in the near term and on stronger demand signals in the US. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.7% to settle above $67 a barrel, snapping a three-day losing streak. Prices also found support from indications of a tighter near-term physical crude market on Thursday. US crude inventories slid last week and Iraq has lost about 200,000 barrels a day of oil production due to drone attacks on several fields in Kurdistan. “While inventories globally have built very significantly, stocks in the pricing centers – especially in the U.S. – are still quite low,” Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, said. Market focus has shifted to “downside risks to supply,” he said.
7. EUR/USD recovers its recent losses registered in the previous day, trading around 1.1630 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the U.S. Dollar loses ground amid easing risk sentiment following the dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
8. The Japanese Yen drifts lower against its American counterpart for the second straight day on Friday and remains within striking distance of an over three-month low touched earlier this week. Investors now seem convinced that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would forgo raising interest rates this year amid worries about the economic fallout from higher U.S. tariffs.
Large-cap tech stocks will likely soon be forced to meet the moment. The do-or-die challenge for the tech bulls? A series of hot financial results and outlooks to match three months of hot stock price gains. “I anticipate that the quality of earnings from these large cap tech companies will continue to be strong, but their ability to move their valuations to move higher and higher, completely unfettered, certainly is likely to be challenged here in the next couple of quarters,” New York Life Investments chief markets strategist Lauren Goodwin said. But others eyeing the tech trade, are beginning to echo Goodwin’s measured tone when putting money to work at higher valuations. “We note that the recent rally in large-cap tech and AI stocks has been fueled mainly by price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple expansion,” Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global head of Equities for UBS Financial Services, pointed out. “While we remain structurally bullish on AI, we would prefer to see further gains underpinned by upward earnings-per-share (EPS) revisions rather than valuation expansion alone.”
Retail sales rebounded in June, an indication that tariffs are not significantly impacting consumer spending habits yet. Headline retail sales rose 0.6% in June, above economists’ expectations for a 0.1% increase month on month. By comparison, sales decreased by 0.9% in May, according to revised Census Bureau data. Capital Economics North America economist Thomas Ryan wrote in a research note that Thursday’s release should “dispel any fears that overall consumer spending is faltering in response to tariffs.” Also, out Thursday morning, data from the Department of Labor showed 221,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending July 12. After picking up in May, weekly filings for unemployment claims are now at their lowest level in three months.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| July. 11, 2025 | July. 18, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,353.47 | $3,352.03 | -1.44 | -0.04% |
| Silver | $38.46 | $38.28 | -0.18 | -0.47% |
| Platinum | $1,408.00 | $1,438.50 | 30.50 | 2.17% |
| Palladium | $1,225.07 | $1,269.05 | 43.98 | 3.59% |
| Dow | 44371.32 | 44342.19 | -29.13 | -0.07% |
Previous Year Comparison
| July. 19, 2024 | July. 18, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,399.19 | $3,352.03 | 952.84 | 39.72% |
| Silver | $29.14 | $38.28 | 9.14 | 31.37% |
| Platinum | $964.60 | $1,438.50 | 473.90 | 49.13% |
| Palladium | $913.14 | $1,269.05 | 355.91 | 38.98% |
| Dow | 40287.43 | 44342.19 | 4054.76 | 10.06% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3335/3302/3249 | 37.69/36.83/35.29 |
| Resistance | 3388/3421/3475 | 39.23/40.09/41.63 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1382/1359/1315 | 1173/1123/1026 |
| Resistance | 1426/1450/1493 | 1270/1320/1417 |