1. U.S. stocks have strongly rebounded after a rough start to the year, even as the outlook for the world’s largest economy and its interest rates remains as uncertain as ever. Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week stressed the need to hold monetary policy until the impact of tariffs on prices clarifies, but markets subsequently pinned their expectations on a lower Fed Funds rate range. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows around a 50% probability of three quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year, along with a 10% probability of a greater trim to a range of 3.25%-3.5% from the current 4.25%-4.5%. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high on Friday, coming back from early-April lows when it was down nearly 18% in the year to date. The index has logged big swings amid the White House’s ongoing tariff story, the latest chapter of which introduced a framework trade agreement between the U.S. and China that helped boost market sentiment last week. The White House remains locked in negotiations with numerous key trading partners, including Canada, the European Union, Taiwan, Japan and India.
2. Central banks increased their allocations to global gold reserves in May with the National Bank of Kazakhstan leading the pack. Global central banks bought 20 tons in May based on reported data, close to but still below the 12-month average of 27 tons. Fresh tensions in the Middle East may have reinforced the strategic appeal of gold for central banks looking to safeguard reserves against geopolitical shocks. Continued sovereign interest in gold was also highlighted in the WCG’s recent Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey in 2025. Gold remains a focus for central banks worldwide, with 95% of respondents believing that official gold reserves will continue to increase, up from 81% last year. A record 43% of central bankers also indicated that their own gold reserves would rise over the next 12 months.
3. The dollar slid on Monday against the yen and was pinned at its lowest in almost four years against the euro, as market optimism over U.S. trade deals bolstered bets for earlier interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The dollar also languished near a four-year low against sterling and a trough of more than a decade versus the Swiss franc after the White House neared a deal with China. “The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside for the dollar, but our calls for only a gradual slowdown in payrolls and an inflation bump in the coming months imply that markets have overshot on dovish pricing,” said Francesco Pesole, an FX strategist at ING.
4. There is no prospect of a major challenge to the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency of choice any time soon, central bankers gathered for an annual conference in the Portuguese resort of Sintra said on Tuesday. The U.S. currency, which accounts for 58% of the world’s reserves, can remain at the center of the global monetary system. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said any change to the dollar’s status was a long way off. “I don’t see … a sort of a major shift at the moment,” he said, arguing that any reserve currency had to offer a supply of safe assets into the market that can be used for purposes of collateral and security. While the dollar’s current share of international reserves is the lowest it has been in decades, its 58% tally is still well above the euro’s 20% share.
5. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell didn’t rule out an interest rate reduction this month but agreed that the central bank would have cut rates by now if not for the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration. “I wouldn’t take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table,” Powell said on a panel at a conference in Portugal, when asked about the possibility of a cut in July. “It’s gonna depend on how the data evolved.” Powell noted a “solid majority” of the Fed’s interest rate setting committee do expect that it will become appropriate later this year to begin lower rates again, explicitly mentioning the remaining four meetings of the year. That includes a gathering on July 29-30. Powell reiterated that the Fed has not seen much effect from tariffs, noting that the central bank expects to see some “higher readings” on inflation, but that officials are prepared to learn and that inflation could be higher, lower, later or sooner than expected.
6. Gasoline prices are on track to hit their lowest level since 2021 heading into the July Fourth holiday. On Tuesday, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $3.18 per gallon, according to AAA data. This marks a $0.31 drop compared to the same day last year. The drop in gas prices has been largely driven by lower prices for oil following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. That eased concerns about a potential supply shock.
7. In the week ending June 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 241,500, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 245,000 to 245,250.
8. Oil held steady as traders turned their focus to a key OPEC+ production Fourth holiday. Crude surrendered some earlier gains after failing to decision as well as U.S. supply and economic data that’s set to be released this week. West Texas Intermediate edged up above $65 a barrel while trading volumes remained lower ahead of Friday’s July, sustaining a break above the 100-day moving average of about $65.67. Trading activity in crude futures has declined since the truce between Israel and Iran led prices to plunge early last week, with volatility returning to levels seen before the war.
9. EUR/USD remains subdued for the second successive session, trading around 1.1800 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair may regain its ground as the U.S. Dollar loses ground amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates due to the downbeat ADP national employment report.
10. The USD/JPY posted mild losses of 0.17% after hitting a new four-week low of 142.68, sponsored by upbeat economic data in Japan. However, good US jobs and business activity data, along with a hawkish Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, lent a lifeline to the U.S. dollar, which staged a comeback versus the Japanese Yen (JPY). At the moment, the pair trades at 143.77.
Wall Street speculators have returned in full force: U.S. stocks have snapped back from the throes of April’s tariff selloff, hovering near record highs. “Fundamentals have taken a back seat again as stocks with hot narratives are trading like lottery tickets,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer of Roundhill Investments. He points out sentiment gauges like relative strength readings and valuation multiples are once again looking extended. “That sets the stage for a sharp air-pocket on the next bad headline.” Calculations from derivatives metrics, volatility, technical and sentiment signals inferred from options markets, has historically averaged around 7%, but occasionally it peaks above 10% as during the Dotcom era of the late 1990s, and the meme-stock frenzy of 2021. The gauge currently sits around 10.7%, data compiled shows.
The June jobs report showed the U.S. labor market remained more resilient than anticipated in the final month of the second quarter. The economy added 147,000 non-farm payrolls in June, more than the 106,000 expected by economists. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to move higher to 4.3%. In May, the US economy added 144,000 jobs while unemployment held flat at 4.2%. Those figures were revised higher on Friday from a previously reported 139,000 job additions in May. “You’re just not seeing any feed through from tariffs or trade related stress,” RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance. “We got an absolutely solid payroll number.”
Mortgage rates fell last week to the lowest level since April, leading current homeowners to seek savings. Applications to refinance a home loan rose 7% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s index. Demand was 40% higher than the same week one year ago. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, decreased to 6.79% from 6.88%, with points falling to 0.62 from 0.63, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate is 24 basis points lower than the same week one year ago.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| June. 27, 2025 | July. 3, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,277.29 | $3,329.22 | 51.93 | 1.58% |
| Silver | $36.11 | $36.88 | 0.77 | 2.13% |
| Platinum | $1,344.58 | $1,377.19 | 32.61 | 2.43% |
| Palladium | $1,141.68 | $1,142.47 | 0.79 | 0.07% |
| Dow | 43818.50 | 44828.53 | 1010.03 | 2.31% |
Month End to Month End Close
| May. 30, 2025 | June. 30, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,291.26 | $3,294.06 | 2.80 | 0.09% |
| Silver | $32.89 | $35.97 | 3.08 | 9.36% |
| Platinum | $1,056.57 | $1,341.55 | 284.98 | 26.97% |
| Palladium | $970.83 | $1,099.90 | 129.07 | 13.29% |
| Dow | 42264.72 | 44094.77 | 1830.05 | 4.33% |
Previous Year Comparison
| July. 5, 2024 | July. 3, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,386.01 | $3,329.22 | 943.21 | 39.53% |
| Silver | $31.24 | $36.88 | 5.64 | 18.05% |
| Platinum | $1,031.10 | $1,377.19 | 346.09 | 33.57% |
| Palladium | $1,026.01 | $1,142.47 | 116.46 | 11.35% |
| Dow | 39363.72 | 44828.53 | 5464.81 | 13.88% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3327/3325/3321 | 36.83/36.80/36.76 |
| Resistance | 3333/3336/3339 | 36.90/36.94/36.96 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1373/1368/1364 | 1137/1133/1127 |
| Resistance | 1382/1387/1391 | 1147/1153/1157 |