1. Gold swung in choppy trading conditions as the world waited for Iran’s response after the U.S. joined Israel in attacking the Islamic Republic over the weekend. Bullion traded near $3,365 an ounce after being up as much as 0.8% earlier and down as much as 0.6%. The U.S.’s assault on Iran’s three main nuclear facilities buoyed the dollar, while oil initially jumped sharply on fears that Tehran could attack Middle Eastern energy infrastructure or shipping in the Strait of Hormuz but pared gains later. The hostilities in the Middle East have given fresh impetus to a rally that’s pushed gold up almost 30% so far this year. Silver was also steady, while palladium and platinum advanced. “The dual forces of uncertainty and accommodative monetary policy are likely to keep gold prices near record highs in the near term,” said Bas Kooijman, chief executive officer of DHF Capital SA.
2. Silver is trading near $36.40 an ounce, up roughly 27% year-to-date, and could be on the verge of a significant breakout. Some analysts think we’ll see $40 before the end of this year. According to the Silver Institute, global silver demand is expected to hit a new record in 2025. At the same time, total supply remains constrained, with mine output expected to fall 2% this year, extending what the Institute says will be the fifth consecutive annual deficit in the silver market. Gold, meanwhile, remains steady above $3,390 after reaching a record $3,454 earlier in June. According to the European Central Bank’s newly released 2025 Reserve Asset Allocation report, gold now accounts for 19% of global foreign exchange reserves, surpassing the euro for the first time, which fell to 16%. The U.S. dollar remains the largest reserve currency at 58%. “Gold has become a comfort metal,” Randy Smallwood, CEO of Wheaton Precious Metals, said. “In times of stress, in times of uncertainty, that’s where people go.”
3. There’s already evidence that tariffs are helping the government’s bottom line. The federal government collected $75 billion in tariffs and excise taxes as of June 20th. during the first five months of the year, according to Treasury Department data collected by the Bipartisan Policy Center. That’s an 85.7% increase from the same period a year ago. Much of the additional revenue came in April and May, after Trump imposed tariffs of at least 10% on nearly everything the U.S. buys from other countries. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that if Trump’s tariffs were to remain in place for a full decade, they could shave $2.8 trillion off the federal debt. But the CBO also acknowledged that the tariffs will potentially result in higher inflation this year and next, as well as slower economic growth.
4. U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly increased in May, but the trend remained weak amid high mortgage rates. Home sales climbed 0.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million units, the National Association of Realtors said on Monday. Economists had forecasted home resales to fall to a rate of 3.95 million units. “The relatively subdued sales are largely due to persistently high mortgage rates,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist. “If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, expect home sales across the country to increase.” The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has hovered just under 7% this year.
5. U.S. consumer sentiment rose sharply in June to a four-month high, and inflation expectations improved notably as concerns eased about the economic outlook and personal finances. The final June sentiment index increased to 60.7 from 52.2 a month earlier, according to the University of Michigan. The 8.5-point increase was the largest since the start of 2024. The median estimate in a survey of economists called for no change from the preliminary reading of 60.5.
6. In the week ending June 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 236,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 245,000 to 246,000. The 4-week moving average was 245,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average.
7. Oil gained as traders assessed conflicting comments on the status of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran as well as a positive turn in trade negotiations with China. West Texas Intermediate rose about 1% to approach $66 a barrel, and Brent traded above $68. Oil still is down about 12% this week after a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran conflict was reached, easing concerns about supply disruptions from a region that pumps about a third of the world’s crude. The commodity had swung in a roughly $15 range, gaining early Monday following the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites.
8. EUR/USD now surrenders part of the earlier advance to fresh highs and recedes to the sub-1.1700 region, charting humble losses at the end of the week. The U.S. Dollar, in the meantime, maintains its gradual recovery following early multi-year lows. The headline PCE showed prices rose by 2.3% in the year to May, a tad higher than April’s readings.
9. The Japanese Yen (JPY) intraday buying remains unabated through the early European session on Thursday, which, along with a broadly weaker U.S. Dollar, drags the USD/JPY pair to a nearly two-week low in the last hour. The growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates further amid signs of broadening inflation in Japan turns out to be a key factor that continues to underpin the JPY.
A world-renowned economist has changed his tune on President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, posted a new note admitting that his initial reaction to the policy may have been wrong. ‘Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us,’ he wrote. The admission comes just months after Sløk warned the tariffs would be ‘painful’ and economically destabilizing. But now, he’s framing the President’s policy as a clever long-game, one that invites global negotiation while increasing federal revenue. In the note, Sløk outlined a potential scenario: the White House could maintain its current tariff rates — 10 percent on most imports, 30 percent on Chinese goods, and give trade partners a year to negotiate with the White House. Extending the current 90-day pause on new tariffs, he argued, would give American companies time to plan ahead and could help stabilize markets. ‘This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for U.S. taxpayers,’ he added. Sløk’s sudden, tepid support for the tariffs is an about-face. He initially criticized the import taxes, saying they threatened business stability, Wall Street’s record highs, and the stability of U.S. treasury bonds.
Rising supply and slowing demand in the housing market are finally causing prices to cool off, and the weakness is accelerating. Home prices nationally rose just 2.7% in April compared with the previous year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday. That is down from a 3.4% annual increase in March and is the smallest gain in nearly two years. The report is slightly backdated, as it is a three-month running average of prices ending in April. Other more current readings of the market, such as one from Parcl Labs, shows prices nationally are now flat compared with a year ago. Mortgage rates dropped for the fourth consecutive week as geopolitical tensions eased, and Treasury yields fell. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.77% through Wednesday, from 6.81% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac data. The average 15-year mortgage rate was 5.89%, from 5.96% last week.
The S&P 500 is on the cusp of a record high. That’s a remarkable change of events, since the index was on the brink of a bear market just two months ago. U.S. stocks on Wednesday were mixed, with a new high for the S&P 500 less than 1% away. The Dow closed lower by 107 points, or 0.25%. The broader S&P 500 was flat, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.31%. The S&P 500 had soared 2.1% across the past two days as investors welcomed a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. As the stock market has climbed back toward record highs, investors are wondering whether there is room for stocks to climb higher or if further roadblocks lie ahead. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed just 0.85% away from an all-time high before closing flat on Wednesday.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| June. 20, 2025 | June. 27, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,367.46 | $3,277.29 | -90.17 | -2.68% |
| Silver | $36.05 | $36.11 | 0.06 | 0.17% |
| Platinum | $1,276.22 | $1,344.58 | 68.36 | 5.36% |
| Palladium | $1,054.98 | $1,141.68 | 86.70 | 8.22% |
| Dow | 42206.02 | 43818.50 | 1612.48 | 3.82% |
Previous Year Comparison
| June. 28, 2024 | June. 27, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,326.98 | $3,277.29 | 950.31 | 40.84% |
| Silver | $29.18 | $36.11 | 6.93 | 23.75% |
| Platinum | $998.80 | $1,344.58 | 345.78 | 34.62% |
| Palladium | $980.10 | $1,141.68 | 161.58 | 16.49% |
| Dow | 39112.94 | 43818.50 | 4705.56 | 12.03% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3271/3267/3263 | 32.94/35.87/35.78 |
| Resistance | 3279/3282/3287 | 36.10/36.19/36.26 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1342/1340/1338 | 1139/1137/1135 |
| Resistance | 1346/1348/1350 | 1143/1145/1147 |