1. U.S. stocks rebounded sharply on Monday as jitters over a widening in the Israel-Iran hostilities started to retreat amid a report that Tehran is looking to deescalate the conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose roughly 1%, while the S&P 500 also moved up 1%. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.3%. The cautious optimism follows a bruising Friday session that saw the Dow plunge more than 700 points in a broad risk-off move. Stocks moved to session highs after the Wall Street Journal reported Tehran may be willing to restart talks over its nuclear program. Now investors are regaining some appetite for risk amid rising optimism that the conflict won’t spill over into a broader regional crisis.
2. Central banks around the world are snapping up gold at a record pace while forecasting a pullback in U.S. dollar reserves in the years ahead. According to a survey from the World Gold Council, 95% of central bank respondents expect global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months. A record 43% said they plan to increase their own holdings during that time. At the same time, 73% of central banks anticipate a moderate or significant decline in dollar holdings within global reserves over the next five years. Respondents expect the share of other currencies, such as the euro and renminbi, will also increase over the same five-year period. A decline in the U.S. dollar index of 9% year to date has raised concerns over its dominance amid geopolitical tensions and a trade war. Gold prices have repeatedly hit all-time highs this year, fueled by central bank purchases, inflows into exchange-traded funds, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Central bank gold buying has been steadily accelerating, adding more than 1,000 tons to their reserves annually over the past three years, more than double the 400–500-ton average seen in the previous decade.
3. U.S. retail sales dropped more than expected in May, weighed down by a decline in motor vehicle purchases as a rush to beat potential tariff-related price hikes ebbed, but consumer spending remains supported by solid wage growth for now. The largest decline in sales in four months reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday added moderate job growth last month, suggesting that domestic demand was softening. That was reinforced by other data showing production at factories, outside motor vehicle assembly, decreased in May. Economists estimated that growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, was so far this quarter tracking at least a 2.0% annualized rate after slowing to a 1.2% pace in the first quarter.
4. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank can lower interest rates as soon as next month, reiterating his view that the inflation hit from tariffs is likely to be short-lived. “We could do this as early as July,” Waller said Friday in an interview. The Federal Open Market Committee next meets July 29-30 in Washington. Waller said economic data show GDP growth and inflation are running close to the central bank’s targets. He also said he believes the Fed’s benchmark rate is 1.25 to 1.5 percentage points above the estimated neutral level, at which it would neither slow nor stimulate the economy. “I think we’ve got room to bring it down, and then we can kind of see what happens with inflation,” he said, adding the central bank could pause cuts if needed due to a shock from events, such as the crisis in the Middle East. “We’ve been on pause for six months to wait and see, and so far, the data has been fine.”
5. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell last week for the first time in a month, easing worries for now about whether U.S. trade wars were leading to rising layoffs. Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 245,000 in the seven days ending June 14, based on seasonally adjusted data, the government said Wednesday. Claims have risen since mid-May, an increase coinciding with the end of the school year. Some states allow educational workers, such as bus drivers and cafeteria workers, to collect unemployment benefits when school is out.
6. Crude oil prices are set for a third consecutive weekly gain due to ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $77.04 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $75.67 per barrel as the latest war in the Middle East entered its second week. The benchmarks dipped slightly from Thursday. This is the biggest physical-market driver of the oil price rally, with the potential risk for supply disruption. Indeed, earlier this week, prices retreated as traders changed their bets on the absence of any attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure of Iranian moves to close the Strait of Hormuz.
7. The Euro edges up modestly against the U.S. Dollar on Friday, capitalizing on a softer Greenback as traders digest a cautious geopolitical signal from the White House. The EUR/USD pair remains near 1.1510 in a range-bound market on Friday, slipping slightly from the session high of 1.1535. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index remains under mild pressure, drifting back below the 99.00 handle to trade near 98.75, with sentiment subdued as markets stay on edge over possible US involvement in the Israel–Iran conflict.
8. The U.S. Dollar keeps trading in a bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows against a weaker Yen and is on track to close the week 0.8% higher, despite the strong Japanese inflation figures seen earlier today. The positive impact of the inflationary pressures on the Yen has been offset by the dovish minutes from this week’s BoJ monetary policy meeting.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth meeting in a row and kept a projection for two rate cuts this year. The central bank voted unanimously to maintain its benchmark interest rate of 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed has held rates at that level for six months since the last cut in December. Fed officials still see two rate cuts this year, the same amount projected in March, amid uncertainty of how the tariffs policy will impact the economy.
Gold headed for a weekly drop as a slight easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sapped safe-haven demand, and a Federal Reserve inflation warning raised the prospect of fewer rate cuts. Bullion traded near $3,350 an ounce on Friday, down more than 2% for the week. The precious metal is still up by more than a quarter this year and remains not far below the record just above $3,500 set in April.
For several months, the broader macro environment has functioned like a grab bag of justifications to close out and watch from afar. Trade uncertainty, an unmoving Fed, and turmoil in the Middle East have kept money on the sidelines. For those surprised at how resilient the markets have been despite the swirling geopolitical headlines, analysts have pointed to several factors that are motivating investors. Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, wrote in a note that the parties behind the hostilities between Israel and Iran are likely interested in keeping the conflict contained, and that investors are also banking on limited disruption of oil production facilities. Jitters over the potential for a widening of the violence appeared to have been calmed amid a report that Tehran is looking to deescalate the conflict. On Monday, oil prices eased lower in a new sign that investors don’t believe in a protracted war, and fresh energy pricing pressures will ensue this summer.
U.S. single-family homebuilding increased in May, but a sharp drop in permits for future construction pointed to subdued housing market conditions amid headwinds from tariffs and excess inventory of unsold homes. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, rose 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 924,000 units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Higher borrowing costs have sidelined potential buyers, boosting the supply of new single-family homes on the market to levels last seen in late 2007. A National Association of Home Builders survey on Tuesday showed sentiment among single-family homebuilders plummeted to a 2-1/2-year low in June.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| June. 13, 2025 | June. 20, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,430.53 | $3,367.46 | -63.07 | -1.84% |
| Silver | $36.31 | $36.05 | -0.26 | -0.72% |
| Platinum | $1,231.14 | $1,276.22 | 45.08 | 3.66% |
| Palladium | $1,040.54 | $1,054.98 | 14.44 | 1.39% |
| Dow | 42197.79 | 42206.02 | 8.23 | 0.02% |
Previous Year Comparison
| June. 21, 2024 | June. 20, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,318.23 | $3,367.46 | 1049.23 | 45.26% |
| Silver | $29.56 | $36.05 | 6.49 | 21.96% |
| Platinum | $995.43 | $1,276.22 | 280.79 | 28.21% |
| Palladium | $953.60 | $1,054.98 | 101.38 | 10.63% |
| Dow | 39149.31 | 42206.02 | 3056.71 | 7.81% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3335/3237/3181 | 35.54/34.76/34.08 |
| Resistance | 3488/3544/3641 | 37.00/37.68/38.46 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1159/1088/1014 | 1009/988/945 |
| Resistance | 1304/1378/1450 | 1073/1116/1137 |