1. Gold prices are posting good gains in early U.S. trading Monday, on safe-haven demand as trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies are rising again. Gold prices are holding at session highs, continuing to attract fresh safe-haven bids after the U.S. manufacturing sector fell deeper into contraction territory. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced on Monday that its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index dropped to 48.5% in May, compared to the previous reading of 48.7%. The headline number was weaker than expected, as economists had anticipated a more neutral reading of 49.3%. A lower dollar index and solidly higher crude oil prices are also bullish outside markets for the precious metals to start the trading week.
2. Silver surged to the highest in 13 years, powered by a technical breakout, as investors broadened demand for the safety of precious metals beyond gold. Spot silver rose as much as 4.2% above $35.90 an ounce, the highest level since February 2012. The rally was likely driven by a combination of technical momentum, improving fundamentals and broader investor interest, said Alexander Zumpfe, senior trader at gold refiner Heraeus Group. “After lagging behind gold for several weeks, silver is now catching up,” Zumpfe said. That suggests “renewed interest from momentum-driven investors who are rotating into silver,” he added. Silver has a dual character, valued both for its uses as a financial asset and an industrial input, including for clean-energy technologies. The metal is a key ingredient in solar panels, which have grown as a source of demand. Against that backdrop, the market is headed for a fifth year in deficit, according to the industry group the Silver Institute. The two precious metals often move in tandem as geopolitical ructions support demand for assets free from any counterparty risk. Gold is up 44% in the last 12 months, as an expanding U.S.-led tariff war bolstered its appeal as a safe-haven, and central banks maintained elevated levels of buying. Silver is up about 20%.
3. A divide is emerging within the Federal Reserve about whether to hold rates steady for some time or get more comfortable about cuts later this year as officials try to determine whether any inflation coming from tariffs will prove to be longer-lasting. Some policymakers are arguing for “looking through” the impact of the duties as temporary, a stance that would leave the door open for cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller is now firmly in the first camp. On Sunday night, he made another argument for why any impact on inflation from tariffs likely won’t last. “Given my belief that any tariff-induced inflation will not be persistent and that inflation expectations are anchored, I support looking through any tariff effects on near-term inflation when setting the policy rate,” Waller said in a speech. This aligns with the White House’s view that any price increases will be transitory. Waller stressed that a strong job market and progress on inflation through April offer additional time to see how trade negotiations play out and the economy evolves.
4. U.S. job openings rose unexpectedly in April, showing that the labor market remains resilient in the face of uncertainty. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that employers posted 7.4 million job vacancies in April, up from 7.2 million in March. Economists had expected the opening to drift down to 7.1 million. But the number of Americans quitting their job, a sign of confidence in their prospects — fell, and layoffs ticked higher. The American job market has remained strong in the face of high interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve in 2022 and 2023 to fight a resurgence of inflation.
5. Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits rose to their highest level in eight months last week but remain historically low despite growing uncertainty about how tariffs could impact the broader economy. New applications for jobless benefits rose by 8,000 to 247,000 for the week ending May 31, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s the most since early October. Analysts had forecasted 237,000 new applications.
6. Oil rose as stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data eased concerns that an economic slowdown will crimp demand. West Texas Intermediate climbed about 2% to trade above $64 a barrel, on track for its largest weekly gain this year. The positive economic data spurred commodity trading advisers to ease off their bearish tilt. The funds, which can accelerate price momentum, liquidated short positions to sit at 27% short in WTI on Friday, compared with 64% short on June 5. The positive signals come against the backdrop of an oil market that has been increasingly rangebound in recent weeks. Prices have traded in a $5 band since the middle of May, and a gauge of volatility for U.S. crude futures is at the lowest since early April.
7. The EUR/USD loses its traction and trades below 1.1400 in the second half of the day on Friday. The pair struggles to build on the ECB-inspired gains and look likely to end the week little changed as the U.S. Dollar benefits from the better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls reading for May.
8. The Japanese Yen attracts sellers for the second straight day in reaction to disappointing domestic data. The optimism over the resumption of US-China trade talks further undermines demand for the safe-haven JPY. The divergent BoJ-Fed expectations should limit JPY losses and cap USD/JPY ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report.
The May jobs report showed the U.S. labor market remained largely resilient. The economy added 139,000 non-farm payrolls in May, more than the 126,000 expected by economists. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. In April, the economy added 177,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held flat at 4.2%. Those figures were revised lower on Friday to show that the economy added 147,000 jobs that month. Revisions from March and April showed the labor market added 95,000 fewer jobs than initially thought. “We’re seeing a softening in the labor market,” EY chief economist Gregory Daco stated this week. “That’s undeniable. But it’s not a retrenchment in the labor market. And that’s what was feared.”
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in April, with imports decreasing by the most on record as the front-running of goods ahead of tariffs ebbed, which could provide a lift to economic growth this quarter. The trade gap contracted by a record 55.5% to $61.6 billion, the lowest level since September 2023. Data for March was revised to show the trade deficit having widened to an all-time high of $138.3 billion rather than the previously reported $140.5 billion. Economists forecasted the deficit narrowing to $70.0 billion. The goods trade deficit eased by a record 46.2% to $87.4 billion, the lowest level since October 2023. The United States had record goods trade surpluses with Hong Kong, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. But it had record deficits with Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand, while the gap with Canada was the smallest since April 2021.
U.S. mortgage applications for home purchases declined to a five-week low even as rates eased from the highest level since late January. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications for home purchases decreased 4.4% to 155 in the week ending May 30, which included the Memorial Day holiday. The contract rate on a 30-year mortgage fell 6 basis points to 6.92%, according to data released Wednesday. The MBA report also showed a 3.5% drop in a measure of refinancing, the fourth straight decline. While house hunters are finding they have more choices as a larger number of sellers list their properties, asking prices remain elevated and mortgage rates are still closer to 7% than 6%.
Falling demand for U.S. dollar-denominated assets will push the greenback lower in coming months, according to FX strategists surveyed. Concerns mount about the U.S. federal deficit and debt. Long-term bond yields have soared on a rising ‘term premium.’ compensation for holding longer-duration debt – leading to swathes of asset outflows and a near-10% fall in the dollar against a basket of major currencies since mid-January. Its usual close relationship with 10-year Treasury yields has also broken down. Over 55% of analysts in a May poll also expressed concern about the dollar’s ‘safe haven’ status, up from only around one-third in April.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| May. 30, 2025 | June. 6, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,291.26 | $3,324.04 | 32.78 | 1.00% |
| Silver | $32.89 | $36.04 | 3.15 | 9.58% |
| Platinum | $1,056.57 | $1,166.65 | 110.08 | 10.42% |
| Palladium | $970.83 | $1,051.66 | 80.83 | 8.33% |
| Dow | 42264.72 | 42762.62 | 497.90 | 1.18% |
Previous Year Comparison
| June. 7, 2024 | June. 6, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,305.73 | $3,324.04 | 1018.31 | 44.16% |
| Silver | $29.27 | $36.04 | 6.77 | 23.13% |
| Platinum | $967.09 | $1,166.65 | 199.56 | 20.64% |
| Palladium | $914.72 | $1,051.66 | 136.94 | 14.97% |
| Dow | 38798.86 | 42762.62 | 3963.76 | 10.22% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3297/3237/3185 | 34.09/33.60/33.20 |
| Resistance | 3349/3408/3501 | 35.71/36.12/36.72 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 1072/1039/1019 | 980/953/932 |
| Resistance | 1125/1145/1175 | 1029/1050/1074 |