1. U.S. stocks shot higher on Monday in the wake of a U.S.-China deal to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs, a reprieve for markets fretting about the economic damage from a trade war. The S&P 500 soared 3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.5%, or around 900 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led gains, rocketing up 3.8%. Wall Street is setting up for a banner day after the U.S. and China put tariffs on pause for 90 days, as the scope of the tariff reductions surprised investors. The U.S. is dropping its duties on most Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China is lowering its 125% tariff on U.S. goods to 10%.
The Precious Metals Week in Review – May 16th, 2025.
2. Receipts from tariffs hit a record level in April as revenue from President Donald Trump’s trade war started kicking in. Customs duties totaled $16.3 billion for the month, some 86% above the $8.75 billion collected during March and more than double the $7.1 billion a year ago, the Treasury Department reported on Monday. That brought the year-to-date total for the duties up to $63.3 billion and more than 18% ahead of the same period in 2024. Trump instituted 10% across-the-board tariffs on U.S. imports starting April 2, which came on top of other select duties he had leveled previously. While the U.S. is still running a massive budget deficit, the influx in tariffs helped shave some of the imbalance for April, a month in which the Treasury generally runs a surplus because of the income tax filing deadline hitting mid-month. The surplus totaled $258.4 billion for the month, up 23% from the same period a year ago.
3. Investors trimmed bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts following the announcement of a delay of the most punitive tariffs imposed with an initial rate reduction now not seen until September and only a half-point reduction seen by year’s end. With bond yields rising and stock futures pointing to higher equity prices, contracts tied to the Fed’s benchmark interest rate reflected a lowering of concerns about growth and the Fed’s need to bolster it with rate cuts sooner rather than later. A dollar rising after the announcement that tariffs would be lowered for now would also, all things equal, help temper inflation. Markets had been expecting a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s upcoming June meeting and two more over the course of the year, according to data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Those expectations shifted out after U.S. and Chinese negotiators said they would limit initial tariff increases for 90 days while discussing a more comprehensive deal.
4. U.S. consumer prices rebounded moderately in April, but inflation is likely to pick up in the coming months as tariffs boost the cost of imported goods. The consumer price index CPI increased 0.2% last month after dipping 0.1% in March, which was the first decline since May 2020, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Economists polled had forecasted the CPI would rise 0.3%. In the 12 months through April, the CPI climbed 2.3% after advancing by 2.4% in the 12 months through March. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.2% last month after gaining 0.1% in March. The so-called core CPI inflation increased 2.8% on a year-on-year basis in April after rising 2.8% in March.
5. U.S. applications for jobless benefits held steady last week as layoffs remain low. The number of Americans applying for unemployment aid was unchanged at 229,000 for the week ending May 10, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s in line with the 230,000 new applications analysts forecast. Weekly applications for jobless benefits are seen as representative of U.S. layoffs and have mostly bounced around a healthy range between 200,000 and 250,000 since COVID-19 ravaged the economy and wiped-out millions of jobs five years ago.
6. Oil prices edged up on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain on easing U.S.-China trade tensions, although this was somewhat offset by expectations of higher supply from Iran and OPEC+. Brent crude futures were up 86 cents, or 1.35%, at $65.40 per barrel at 1214 ET (1614 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 94 cents, or 1.5%, to $62.56.
7. EUR/USD slides to near 1.11500 during North American trading hours on Friday. The major currency pair weakens as the U.S. Dollar turns positive after recovering initial losses, following the release of the flash United States consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data for May. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, moves higher above 101.00.
8. The USD/JPY pair recoups some of its initial losses and rebounds to near 145.50 during North American trading hours on Friday, while it is still 0.1% down. The pair recovers as the U.S. Dollar bounces back and flattens, with investors awaiting the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data for May, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.
Discussion of an economic downturn later in 2025 had surged as economists argued widespread tariffs would boost inflation and slow economic growth. Now, with the bulk of tariffs on goods from China paused for 90 days, and optimism around further trade deals building — economists argue that economic growth will still slow later this year, but the odds of a recession have diminished. With the latest tariff cuts, the estimated effective U.S. tariff rate has fallen from roughly 24% to 14%. This creates a $300 billion “tax cut” for American consumers that likely would’ve been swallowing the brunt of the possible price increases caused by tariffs. Americans paying higher prices and eventually being unable to spend as much was a key part of why economists have been worried about tariffs leading to an economic slowdown.
U.S. wholesale prices dropped unexpectedly in April for the first time in more than a year despite President Donald Trump’s sweeping taxes on imports. The producer price index, which tracks inflation before it hits consumers — fell 0.5% last month from March, the first drop since October 2023 and the biggest in five years. Compared to a year earlier, producer prices rose 2.4% last month, decelerating from a 3.4% year-over-year gain in March, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core wholesale prices dipped 0.4% from March and rose 3.1% from a year earlier.
Mortgage rates rose slightly this week as easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China gave Wall Street more confidence that the economy could avoid entering a recession. The average 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 6.81% this week through Wednesday, from 6.76% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac data. Average 15-year mortgage rates were 5.92%, from 5.89%.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| May. 9, 2025 | May. 16, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,340.91 | $3,189.41 | -151.50 | -4.53% |
| Silver | $32.79 | $32.22 | -0.57 | -1.74% |
| Platinum | $1,003.06 | $989.53 | -13.53 | -1.35% |
| Palladium | $984.59 | $960.42 | -24.17 | -2.45% |
| Dow | 41249.38 | 42654.74 | 1405.36 | 3.41% |
Previous Year Comparison
| May. 17, 2024 | May. 16, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,413.94 | $3,189.41 | 775.47 | 32.12% |
| Silver | $31.07 | $32.22 | 1.15 | 3.70% |
| Platinum | $1,048.82 | $989.53 | -59.29 | -5.65% |
| Palladium | $1,009.90 | $960.42 | -49.48 | -4.90% |
| Dow | 40004.28 | 42654.74 | 2650.46 | 6.63% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3184/3179/3176 | 32.01/31.30/30.66 |
| Resistance | 3193/3196/3201 | 33.35/33.99/34.70 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 967/936/918 | 949/919/900 |
| Resistance | 1016/1035/1065 | 998/1018/1048 |