1. Pleas for lower mortgage rates could be the battle cry of the decade among aspiring homeowners and those looking to refinance, and for good reason. According to Freddie Mac, current interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage are just below 6.8%. Rates for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage are a little under 6%. Those are more than double the sub-3% mortgage rates consumers saw during the pandemic era. But if you’re waiting for rates to drop before buying a home, experts suggest otherwise. Current financial and housing market data indicate little interest rate relief in the coming year. If you want to buy, you’re not entirely out of luck, but it’s wise to consider a buying strategy that’s less about mortgage rates and more focused on homeownership. As of May 1, this year, Freddie Mac reported that rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages had stayed below 7% for 15 consecutive weeks. This time last year, mortgage rates were averaging 7.22%. When the Fed — the common nickname for the Federal Open Market Committee last met in March 2025, it voted to keep the federal funds rate the same for the time being. However, the central bank predicted two rate cuts in 2025. The next Fed meeting is set for this week, May 6 and 7. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there’s roughly a 96% chance that the Fed will not cut its rate at this meeting.
2. Gold futures prices are strongly higher in early U.S. trading Monday, on more safe-haven demand, especially from China. Silver prices are modestly up. A weaker U.S. dollar index to start the trading week is also friendly for the gold and silver markets. June gold was last up $81.30 at $3,324.60. May silver prices were last up $0.381 at $32.37. Technically, June gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,400.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $3,209.40. May silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $33.69. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $32.675 and then at $33.00. Next support is seen at $32.00 and then at last week’s low of $31.685.
3. Oil slipped after OPEC+ agreed to another bumper output increase, raising concern that additional supply could lead to a global glut. Brent futures tumbled as much as 4.6% toward $58 a barrel, before paring losses. OPEC and its allies agreed Saturday to continue loosening supply constraints as the group’s leaders seek to punish overproducing members and win back market share. The latest hike of more than 400,000 barrels a day from June matched a similar increase announced last month, when the group made the shocking decision to bring back triple the planned volume for May. The alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has been unwinding prolonged output curbs meant to support prices but that also cost the group market share. The strategy shift had already sent prices plunging. Crude is trading near a four-year low hit in April. The dramatic policy pivot by OPEC+ has added momentum to the sustained selloff, which has made oil one of the worst performing major commodities of 2025.
4. In the past three months, the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen from 108 to below 99. This means the dollar has dropped in value relative to major foreign currencies by over 8% in just the past quarter. When the dollar’s value drops, there are some typical suspects. In some instances, excessive money printing increases the amount of currency in circulation without increasing the supply of goods. This leads to inflation, which devalues the dollar. With the dollar losing value and tariffs increasing prices, gold stands out as a strong investment choice. Unlike paper money, gold isn’t controlled by a government’s monetary policy or affected directly by instituted tariffs. This makes it a relatively stable store of value when the dollar’s purchasing power shrinks from external factors. Investors often turn to gold in times of uncertainty because it provides a sense of security. It is a physical asset that is uniquely insulated from the constant trade disputes. As the dollar continues to weaken, more people look to gold to protect their wealth from the unpredictable effects of tariffs and inflation.
5. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, suggesting the labor market continued to chug along. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended May 3rd. Economists had forecasted 230,000 claims for the latest week. A reluctance by employers to let go of workers after struggling to find labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic accounts for most of the labor market’s resilience.
6. Oil extended gains as the market turned its attention to trade talks between the U.S. and China this weekend. Brent climbed toward $64 a barrel, following a 2.8% gain in the previous session. Crude has tumbled from a mid-January peak on concerns tariffs will dent economic growth, while OPEC+ moved to revive idled production. Measured optimism on trade negotiations has helped prices recover some ground after starting the week near their lowest since 2021. “There is renewed trade optimism across financial markets, including oil, following yesterday’s signing of the first UK–US trade agreement,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “There is strong support for oil prices in the $60–$64 range.”
7. The EUR/USD pair advanced modestly on Friday, trading near the 1.1300 zone after the European session. Price action remained contained within the day’s range, reflecting steady demand despite mixed short-term momentum signals. The broader technical picture, however, remains constructive, with long-term averages reinforcing the underlying bullish bias.
8. The USD/JPY pair retraces to near 145.00 during North American trading hours on Friday after failing to extend its upside above almost a month’s high of 146.20 earlier in the day. The pair corrects as the U.S. Dollar falls back, with investors turning cautious ahead of trade talks between the United States and China on Saturday.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate unchanged as it waits for the Trump administration’s trade policy to take shape and sees its impact on a sputtering economy. In a move that carried little suspense given the wave of uncertainty sweeping the political and economic landscape, the Federal Open Market Committee held its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell played down any impressions Wednesday that the central bank was looking ahead to cushion economic weakness from tariffs by cutting rates. At a news conference, he used some version of the word “wait” 22 times to underscore how the Fed isn’t in a rush. “The costs of waiting to see further are fairly low, we think, so that’s what we’re doing,” Powell said. The economy has just been through a wrenching period of high inflation, Fed officials don’t think they can risk cutting rates pre-emptively to support a slowdown in hiring lest it adds to hotter price pressures in the short run. The Fed cut its benchmark short-term rate by 1 percentage point in the second half of 2024 as inflation declined, and the unemployment rate drifted up. It has held the federal-funds rate steady, at around 4.3%, since December. The European Central Bank, meanwhile, has cut its benchmark rate seven times in the last year by a combined 1.75 percentage points, to 2.25% last month. The Bank of England on Thursday cut its benchmark rate to 4.25% from 4.5%. It was the bank’s fourth cut since last summer. “Everybody’s cutting but him,” President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday. Powell has repeatedly said the Fed makes its decisions based on its own assessment of how to best balance its mandate to promote low inflation and healthy labor markets.
Gold has been on a tear lately. It was $1,830 as of October 5, 2023. At today’s prices, which marks a 75% surge in just 18 months. Gold has outperformed stocks by a wide margin this year, but it has also outperformed stocks for the past twenty-five years. Gold was around $250 per ounce in 1999. The gain since then is 1,180% or almost 12 times the starting price. The most fundamental reason for the rise in gold prices is simple supply and demand. Central banks predominantly from developing markets moved from being net sellers to net buyers of gold in 2010. Total gold reserves of central banks have risen significantly since then from just over 30,000 metric tons (mt) to over 35,000mt today. At the same time gold demand has been growing, gold output is flat. Global mining output of gold was about 130 million ounces in 2018 and was about 120 million ounces in 2024. Output declined slowly from 2018 to 2022 and then recovered slowly over the course of 2023 and 2024 but the change in both directions was slight.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| May. 2, 2025 | May. 9, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,231.15 | $3,340.91 | 109.76 | 3.40% |
| Silver | $32.03 | $32.79 | 0.76 | 2.37% |
| Platinum | $964.75 | $1,003.06 | 38.31 | 3.97% |
| Palladium | $952.53 | $984.59 | 32.06 | 3.37% |
| Dow | 41317.43 | 41249.38 | -68.05 | -0.16% |
Previous Year Comparison
| May. 10, 2024 | May. 9, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,369.68 | $3,340.91 | 971.23 | 40.99% |
| Silver | $28.30 | $32.79 | 4.49 | 15.87% |
| Platinum | $999.16 | $1,003.06 | 3.90 | 0.39% |
| Palladium | $982.25 | $984.59 | 2.34 | 0.24% |
| Dow | 39512.84 | 41249.38 | 1736.54 | 4.39% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3265/3177/3114 | 32.40/31.25/30.05 |
| Resistance | 3358/3416/3480 | 33.15/34.30/35.05 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 971/946/930 | 933/911/896 |
| Resistance | 1013/1030/1057 | 971/986/1008 |