1. Gold rallied to a record as a fresh bout of U.S. dollar weakness, and persistent trade war concerns underpinned safe haven demand. Bullion roared above $3,400 an ounce, as the U.S. currency fell to the lowest since late 2023. The precious metal has soared to successive records this year as the trade conflict has unsettled markets, hurting appetite for risk assets, while accelerating a rush to havens. Central banks have also been adding the metal to their reserves, underpinning robust worldwide demand. Banks have become progressively more positive about gold’s prospects as this year’s rally has gone from strength to strength. Among them, Goldman Sachs has forecast the metal could hit $4,000 midway through next year. The Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%. Silver reversed an early drop to push 1% higher. Platinum rose, while palladium declined. UPDATE: Gold surged past $3,500 an ounce on Tuesday for the first time before paring some gains, after being triggered by a flight away from stocks, bonds and the dollar.
2. Oil retreated as traders fretted over the impact of the US-led trade war on energy demand, while sings of progress in talks between Washington and Tehran eased concerns about supplies from Iran. Brent crude fell as much as 2.9%, to $66.01 a barrel. The International Monetary Fund is set to cut growth forecasts, and other data may also show how trade policies are affecting the global economy. “Oil looks like it’s taking a leg lower on general risk-off moves,” said Ed Bell, head of research at Dubai lender Emirates NBD Pjsc. “The prevailing mood around oil still looks negative,” he said, citing lower demand outlooks and global growth forecasts. Iran’s foreign minister said his country had a “better understanding” with the U.S. on a range of principles after talks Saturday on Tehran’s nuclear program. Oil has declined sharply this month, touching a four-year low at one point, driven by investors’ fears that the onslaught of tariffs and counter-levies between the U.S. and its biggest trading partners will sap crude demand. The drop has been compounded by the OPEC+ alliance’s decision to bring back production at a faster-than-expected pace, reviving concerns about a supply glut.
3. A weak dollar isn’t a good thing for stocks if history is any guide. The U.S. Dollar Index has declined 9% year to date. In a new note on Monday, former Morgan Stanley chief strategist Adam Parker went back to 2001 to see how dollar weakness has impacted markets. Parker identified 16 periods where the dollar weakened by at least 5%. “There is no question in our minds that the performance within the equity market during the recent period of dollar weakening is far different for very understandable reasons than the previous regimes where the dollar weakened by at least 5% against the DXY. Hence, we can’t say with confidence that just because something has not happened in the past it can’t happen this year,” Parker said. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are down about 4% each in April, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off by 5.6%. Market leader Apple has dropped 8.5%. Gold prices have climbed to a record high. Year to date, the three major indexes are down more than 7%, with the Nasdaq leading stocks lower with a 10% decline.
4. U.S. stock futures jumped Wednesday after President Trump said he has “no intention” of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, easing Wall Street fears over the central bank’s independence. Meanwhile, Trump also softened his tone on tariffs, hinting that eye-popping duty levels on Chinese imports would ultimately be scaled back. Trump told reporters from the Oval Office on Tuesday that he “never did” intend to remove Powell, though he reiterated his desire for the Fed chair to reduce interest rates. “I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates,” the president said. Wall Street was also upbeat thanks to new signs trade talks between the U.S. and major trading partners might advance. On China tariffs, Trump said he expects them to come down “substantially,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called them “unsustainable.” Vice President JD Vance also said talks with India had made progress.
5. Mortgage rates remained close to 6.8% again this week as financial markets continued to whipsaw on tariff news. The average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.81% in the week through Wednesday, according to Freddie Mac data, little changed from 6.83% a week earlier. Average 15-year mortgage rates were 5.94%, down from 6.03%. Mortgage applications are slumping amid the higher rate environment. Applications to purchase a new home dropped 7% through Friday from a week earlier, while refinancing applications were down 20%. Homebuyers are proving reluctant to come off the sidelines in the current economic environment. Existing home sales dropped 5.9% in March from a month earlier, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million. Those sales likely went under contract in February and early March when mortgage rates were around year-to-date lows of 6.6%.
6. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose marginally last week, suggesting the labor market remains resilient despite clouds over the economy caused by tariffs on imported goods. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 222,000 for the week ended April 19, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists had forecast 222,000 claims for the latest week. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.841 million during the week ending April 12, the claims report showed.
7. Oil prices fell on Friday and were set for a weekly decline of over 2%, under pressure from market expectations of oversupply and uncertainty around tariff talks between the U.S. and China. Brent crude futures were down 33 cents to $66.22 a barrel at 11:05 a.m. EDT (1505 GMT), taking losses of 2.5% over the week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 31 cents to $62.48 a barrel, headed for a weekly decline of 3.3%.
8. The EURUSD pair was seen hovering near the 1.1400 region on Friday after easing slightly in the aftermath of the European session. The pair is consolidating within a narrow range between 1.1315 and 1.1391, reflecting a pause in bullish momentum while still holding ground near recent highs. Key support levels are located at 1.1369, 1.1335, and 1.1215. On the upside, resistance is expected at 1.1378, with further gains likely requiring stronger bullish conviction.
9. The USD/JPY pair is expected to conclude the week on a positive note above 143.00. The pair surges to near 143.50 on Friday as the U.S. Dollar has resumed its recovery move on hopes that the United States is close to making deals with a number of its trading partners. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the Greenback’s value against its six peers, bounces back to near 99.75 after a corrective move on Thursday.
Gold retreated after topping $3,500 an ounce for the first time as traders booked a profit following a nearly 10% rally this month. Bullion fell by as much as 1.5% during U.S. hours after earlier surging to a fresh record as risk appetite improved with equities bouncing back, bonds and the dollar stabilizing. “Gold’s tactically very overbought and extended – it’s risen $500 plus in 8 trading days, so naturally there’s likely a mix of a buyers pause and some risk reduction,” said Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS Pamp SA. Earlier, gold gained as much as 2.2% on Tuesday to briefly top $3,500, though adjusted for inflation, it is still below the high of $850 touched in January 1980, which would be equivalent to more than $3,540 in today’s dollars. Gold bullion has surged about 29% this year, outperforming nearly every other major asset class, as investors flee equities exposed to an expanding trade war. Typically, in risk-off moments, traders turn to government debt. But given a recent selloff in Treasuries and the fiscal position generally, gold is now “the only true safe haven left,” according to analysts at Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
Pleas for lower mortgage rates could be the battle cry of the decade among aspiring homeowners and those looking to refinance — and for good reason. According to Freddie Mac, current interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hover around 6.8%. Rates for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage are right around 6%. Those are more than double the sub-3% mortgage rates consumers saw during the pandemic era. But if you’re waiting for rates to drop before buying a home, experts suggest otherwise. Current financial and housing market data indicate little interest rate relief in the coming year. As of April 17, this year, Freddie Mac reported that rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages had stayed below 7% for 13 consecutive weeks. This time last year, mortgage rates were averaging 7.1%. The current housing market is in a crunch. To put it simply, buyers outnumber homes for sale, especially homes in price ranges accessible to the first-time home buyer. According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the median sale price of single-family homes has consistently trended upward since the first quarter of 2009. At that time, the median sale price was $208,400. As of the fourth quarter of 2024 (the most recent data at the time of publishing), the median price has risen to $419,200.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Apr. 18, 2025 | Apr. 25, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,318.03 | $3,293.59 | -24.44 | -0.74% |
| Silver | $32.48 | $32.98 | 0.50 | 1.54% |
| Platinum | $970.73 | $970.49 | -0.24 | -0.02% |
| Palladium | $960.00 | $942.00 | -18.00 | -1.88% |
| Dow | 39142.23 | 40113.50 | 971.27 | 2.48% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Apr. 26, 2024 | Apr. 25, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,338.72 | $3,293.59 | 954.87 | 40.83% |
| Silver | $27.28 | $32.98 | 5.70 | 20.89% |
| Platinum | $916.25 | $970.49 | 54.24 | 5.92% |
| Palladium | $958.30 | $942.00 | -16.30 | -1.70% |
| Dow | 38235.78 | 40113.50 | 1877.72 | 4.91% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3227/3128/3063 | 32.48/31.84/31.09 |
| Resistance | 3392/3457/3557 | 33.22/33.86/34.61 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 949/931/917 | 925/889/859 |
| Resistance | 980/994/1012 | 991/1020/1057 |