1. After one of the strangest weeks for global markets in recent memory, gold once again found itself the premier asset, buoyed upward by waves of uncertainty and fear. Spot gold kicked off last week trading at $3,032.32 per ounce, and after a quick dip down to test support at $2,978 early Sunday evening, the yellow metal rose back above $3,000 during the Asian trading session. Monday and Tuesday saw spot gold trade in a relatively narrow range between $2,980 and $3,017 per ounce, with support holding on every retest. But it was the Asian open on Tuesday evening that began gold’s epic run, with spot gold coming off $2,980 support to rise all the way to $3,073 by the North American open on Wednesday. By 1:00 p.m., gold had hit a new all-time high of $3,092 per ounce. Spot gold hardly took a breath after breaching $3,100 dollars per ounce late Wednesday evening, and by the North American open on Thursday morning, the yellow metal was trading above $3,140 per ounce. Asian traders then easily drove the precious metal through $3,200 per ounce, and after a successful retest of $3,190 shortly after 1:30 a.m. Friday morning, the yellow metal marched higher still, ultimately topping out at $3,245.48 shortly after noon Eastern. As for positioning in the market, runs like the one gold has been on tend to be followed by trend changes, and it would be wise for investors to protect their long positions with some hedges.
2. U.S. stocks jumped Monday morning, as investors focused on tech’s significant, if temporary reprieve from tariffs. The S&P 500 rose 1.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.3%, climbing over 400 points. Yet Wall Street remains braced for another week of tariff-fueled ups and downs. The major indexes had their best week since at least 2023 last week, though it came in anything but conventional fashion. A historic surge upward on Wednesday, after tariffs were hiked on China to 145% but paused most other “reciprocal” duties — was the highlight of a week full of extraordinary volatility. Traditional “safe haven” assets have come into focus in recent days, as gold has surged to record highs and longer-term Treasury yields have climbed while the dollar has weakened against foreign currencies. Yields on the 10-year Treasury fell to around 4.42% early Monday, while the U.S. dollar fell.
3. Retail sales rose more than 1.4% in March, matching forecasts and serving as the best reading in over two years in the latest sign of the U.S. economy’s resilience. Headline retail sales rose 1.4% in March, matching economists’ expectations, and well above the 0.2% increase seen in February according to Census Bureau data. This was the best monthly increase since January 2023. The control group in Thursday’s release, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the gross domestic product reading for the quarter, rose 0.4%. Economists had expected 0.6%. The metric’s February rise was revised higher to 1.3% from a prior reading of 1%. March sales, excluding auto and gas, rose 0.8%, above consensus estimates for a 0.6% increase. Sales in autos alone rose 5.3% in March.
4. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested on Wednesday that hopes the central bank will step in to tamp down on market volatility are likely misplaced. Asked if the Fed would intervene to counter sharp declines in the stock market, Powell said “I’m going to say no, with an explanation. What I think is going on in markets is markets are processing what’s going on, markets are struggling with a lot of uncertainty and that means volatility,” Powell said in Chicago. Despite the tumult, “markets are functioning conditionally on being in such a challenging situation, markets are doing what they’re supposed to do, they’re orderly and they’re functioning just about as you would expect them to function” given the uncertainty. Powell said it was understandable markets would have a hard time given the big changes happening. He also explained it can be very hard to know what’s causing the trouble in real time. “I’ve had a lot of experience with significant moves, for example, in the bond market, where there’s a narrative that people land on, and then two months later, you look back and go, that was completely wrong,” Powell said. “So, I think it’s very premature to say exactly what’s going on.”
5. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting labor market conditions remained stable in April. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ended April 12, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. The economy added 228,000 jobs in March while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in February.
6. As the Western hemisphere wound down trading activity with the onset of the Easter holidays, crude oil markets have posted an impressive 7% week-on-week rise, with Brent now back at $68 per barrel. New OPEC+ compensation quotas, tighter U.S. sanctions on Iran, and relatively upbeat March macro data have all boosted sentiment in the short term, although further U.S.-China escalation could upend this week’s recovery.
7. The Euro (EUR) advances against the U.S. Dollar in muted trading as financial markets are closed on Good Friday. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1385, up 0.21%, lacking the strength to break the elusive 1.14 mark. In the meantime, the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six other currencies, falls 0.09%, down to 99.31.
8. USD/JPY inches lower after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 142.40 during the Asian session on Friday. An analysis of the daily chart showed the pair moves downward within a descending channel, indicating a confirmed bearish bias. The USD/JPY pair continues to trade below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling subdued short-term momentum.
Gold surged to a fresh high on safe haven demand as the dollar fell and tech stocks slumped. Bullion gained as much as 2.7% on Wednesday to climb above $3,300 an ounce for the first time, surpassing the previous record set on Monday. The dollar fell to a fresh six-month low as traders were whiplashed again by a slew of tariff headlines. The precious metal has climbed 26% this year and hit a series of record highs. Leading banks remain optimistic about bullion’s prospects over the coming quarters as investors add to holdings and central banks continue to accumulate the metal. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is forecasting that prices will rally to $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026. In a Bank of America global fund manager survey this week, 42% of respondents expected gold to be the best performing asset class in 2025, up from 23% in March.
The fallout from the tariff announcements and revisions hasn’t yet pushed investors to shy away from an old habit: buying the dip. Data from VandaTrack showed the week following “Liberation Day” saw “record dip-buying flows from retail investors,” including $3 billion in net purchases on April 3, the largest daily total since they began collecting this data in 2014. Global markets sold off sharply in the initial reaction to the reciprocal tariff announcements that pushed levies to their highest level in a century. Across trading on April 3 and 4, the S&P 500 experienced one of its worst two-day stretches in history. Since this initial crash, markets have remained volatile, with the index seeing its best single-day rally since 2008 last Wednesday, April 9. “Even prior to the tariff U-turn, retail investors remained well short of capitulating,” the VandaTrack team wrote in a note on April 9. “The glass-half-empty interpretation is that if this rally turns out to be a mere bear market bounce, the risk of further downside remains on the cards.”
After six weeks of hovering between 6.6% and 6.7%, mortgage rates rose sharply this week, according to Freddie Mac’s latest survey, reflecting recent bond market volatility. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.83% for the week through Wednesday, compared with 6.62% a week earlier. The average 15-year mortgage rate was 6.03%, up from 5.82% a week earlier. Mortgage rates have been on a wild ride in recent weeks as the bond yields that underpin them whipsawed in the aftermath of the tariff announcement and later delay of some levies. Most rate surveys showed a sharp rise last week, as 10-year Treasury yields approached 4.5%.
An aggressive U.S. tariff policy will trigger a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy this year and next, with the median probability of recession in the next 12 months approaching 50%, according to economists polled. The probability of a U.S. recession over the coming year has surged to 45%, the highest since December 2023, from 25% last month. “Sentiment is incredibly weak right now and that points to households being very nervous about spending. Prices, jobs and wealth are all moving against the consumer and that is a pretty toxic combination for consumer spending growth going forward,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. “That’s the real issue for growth that raises the recession risk… the lack of clarity on the trading environment faced by U.S. companies makes them naturally more wary about putting money to work in the economy.”
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Apr. 11, 2025 | Apr. 18, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,233.86 | $3,318.03 | 84.17 | 2.60% |
| Silver | $32.11 | $32.48 | 0.37 | 1.15% |
| Platinum | $940.29 | $970.73 | 30.44 | 3.24% |
| Palladium | $920.84 | $960.00 | 39.16 | 4.25% |
| Dow | 40212.47 | 39142.23 | -1070.24 | -2.66% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Apr. 19, 2024 | Apr. 18, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,393.82 | $3,318.03 | 924.21 | 38.61% |
| Silver | $28.69 | $32.48 | 3.79 | 13.21% |
| Platinum | $934.10 | $970.73 | 36.63 | 3.92% |
| Palladium | $1,021.24 | $960.00 | -61.24 | -6.00% |
| Dow | 37986.36 | 39142.23 | 1155.87 | 3.04% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3146/3046/2857 | 30.90/29.50/26.75 |
| Resistance | 3335/3435/3624 | 33.66/35.06/37.81 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 928/901/860 | 912/888/861 |
| Resistance | 969/996/1037 | 964/991/1011 |