1. Stocks struggled to gain steam last week as uncertainty around tariff plans continued to loom over markets. The S&P 500 popped about 0.5% while the Dow Jones Industrial rose more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added nearly 0.2%. In the week ahead, a reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will highlight the economic releases. Updates on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, consumer confidence, and the final reading of fourth-quarter economic growth are also expected. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week while updating its economic forecast to project higher inflation and slower economic growth than previously thought. The median forecast from Fed officials signals two interest rate cuts in 2025, in line with what markets expected headed into the meeting. While markets are patiently waiting for clarity on when, or if, tariffs could impact inflation, investors will get a look at price increases for the month of February.
2. Gold prices are up a bit in early U.S. trading Monday and not far below the recent contract/record highs. Silver prices are also firmer. The precious metals are seeing a steady flow of safe haven buying amid persistent elevated uncertainty in the marketplace. The overall technical posture for gold remains solidly bullish, while for silver the technicals are overall bullish. Technically, April gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,100.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,900.00. May silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October 2024 high of $35.80. Bank of America has raised its gold period average forecasts for this year and next. BofA now expects gold to trade at $3,063 per ounce in 2025 and $3,350/oz in 2026, it said in a note on Wednesday. This is an increase from its previous forecasts of $2,750/oz for 2025 and $2,625/oz for 2026. Spot gold is currently trading around $3,024/oz and has gained more than 15% so far this year.
3. U.S. inflation remains at a disquieting level for Federal Reserve officials, just as the administration moves forward with tariffs that risk keeping price pressures elevated. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation probably rose 0.3% in February for a second month, based on a survey. The so-called core gauge is estimated to have accelerated to a 2.7% annual pace. Other economic data on the agenda includes February durable goods orders, which may offer a sense of whether companies are becoming more cautious about their capital spending plans. Economists will also use a report on February merchandise trade to help shape estimates of first-quarter gross domestic product. The imports data, however, will probably be skewed once again by a surge in inbound gold that won’t be included in the government’s GDP estimate.
4. Barely a year after the National Association of Realtors settled a lawsuit and rewrote the rules for how agents get paid, the powerful trade group is examining the fate of another policy that could change how homes are bought and sold across the country. The policy, known as Clear Cooperation, requires agents to list homes on shared databases known as multiple listing services within one business day of beginning to market the properties. The rule is designed to cut down on what are known as “off-market” or “pocket” listings, where a home for sale is marketed semi-privately to small pools of potential buyers without being advertised widely on the MLS. Since it took effect in 2020, the policy has sparked fierce debate within the real estate world and at times pitted its top players against each other. Proponents argue that the rule helps ensure that the industry follows fair housing laws and helps sellers secure top prices for their homes by putting them in front of the broadest pool of potential buyers. Opponents, meanwhile, say sellers should get to dictate how their homes are marketed and argue that the MLS listing requirement violates antitrust laws. The NAR is currently reviewing whether the rule should be repealed, remain in place, or be changed. At a time when the number of homes for sale remains below historical norms and brokerages have consolidated, the decision has implications for how hundreds of thousands of homes are marketed and sold each year.
5. The U.S. economy expanded at a healthy annual 2.4% pace the final three months of 2024, supported by a year-end surge in consumer spending, the government said Thursday in a slight upgrade of its previous estimate of fourth-quarter growth. Growth in gross domestic product, the nation’s output of goods and services, decelerated from a 3.1% pace in July-September 2024. For all of 2024, the economy, the world’s biggest, grew 2.8%, down a tick from 2.9% in 2023. Consumer spending rose at a 4% pace, up from 3.7% in third-quarter 2023. But business investment fell, led by an 8.7% drop in investment in equipment. A drop in business inventories shaved 0.84 percentage points off fourth-quarter GDP growth. A category within the GDP data that measures the economy’s underlying strength rose at a healthy 2.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, slipping from the government’s previous estimate of 3.2% and from 3.4% in the third quarter.
6. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits slipped last week, while the jobless rate appeared to have held steady in March. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 224,000 for the week ended March 22, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. Low layoffs have blunted the impact of a sharp moderation in hiring, keeping the labor market on a solid footing and the economic expansion on track.
7. Earlier this week, the Department of Energy reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve climbed 0.2 million barrels again to 396.1 million barrels in the week ending March 21. Inventory levels in the SPR are hundreds of millions shy of the levels in inventory prior to the SPR withdrawal that took place under the Biden Administration. At 4:12 pm ET, Brent crude was trading up $0.15 (+0.21%) on the day at $73.15—a nearly $2.50 per barrel gain from this time last week. The U.S. benchmark WTI was trading up on the day as well, by $0.06 (+0.09%) at $69.17—a $1.60 per barrel increase from last week’s level.
8. EUR/USD extended its upward trajectory on Friday, moving near the 1.0830 region after the European session and toward the upper end of the day’s trading range. The pair has gained traction, reflecting investor appetite for the euro despite mixed short-term signals. The technicals reveal an ongoing bullish backdrop, underpinned by supportive moving averages, though caution remains as oscillators flash neutral-to-negative cues.
9. The USD/JPY pair retreats after touching a nearly four-week top earlier this Friday and extends its intraday descent through the first half of the European session. The Japanese Yen gained some positive traction following the release of strong consumer inflation figures from Tokyo. In fact, government data showed that the headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% in March from 2.8% previously. Adding to this, Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, climbed to 2.4% during the reported month from 2.2% in February. Moreover, a core reading that excludes both volatile fresh food and energy prices grew from 1.9% in the prior month to 2.2% in March. This was now above the BoJ’s annual 2% target and keeps the door open for more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
The rush of gold bullion deliveries into New York depositories from overseas will likely keep the U.S. goods-trade deficit close to a record. Much of the widening can be traced to imports of gold. Stockpiles have surged in recent months on concerns precious metals may be included in the broad tariffs. That’s also boosted prices and created an arbitrage opportunity that incentivized traders to get their hands on physical bullion. Inventories of gold in New York’s commodities exchange surged another 25% last month after climbing 43% in January. Stockpiles on the Comex stood at a record 42.6 million ounces on Tuesday, nearly double the inventory at the end of 2024. Typically, a boom in imports would be a drag on growth, but gold for investment purposes is excluded from the government’s calculation of gross domestic product. A similar phenomenon is playing out with silver. While that metal is included in GDP no matter what the end purpose is, it’s much cheaper than gold, so the impact on the deficit is more modest. Much of the supply has come from Switzerland, which shipped the most gold to the U.S. in January in data going back to 2012. February figures were similarly high.
The U.S. economy has undergone a narrative shift over the past month. After two years of outperforming expectations, it now appears the economy is growing slower than many on Wall Street thought it would start 2025. But, while the economy is cooling, it isn’t collapsing. “Growth looks like it’s maybe moderating a bit, consumer spending moderating a bit, but still at a solid pace,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said during his most recent press conference. Powell’s description of an economy that “seems to be healthy” came after the Fed lowered its Gross Domestic Product projection for 2025 to 1.7% in its latest summary projections last week. This marked a move lower from the 2.1% growth the Fed had projected back in December. Notably, none of these revisions have been calls for an outright economic downturn or some sort of rapid slowing in economic growth. Given the chances of a recession in the next 12 months typically stand at about 15% at any given point in history, Goldman’s move to 20% isn’t exactly arguing that’s the most likely outcome. “If you go back two months, people were saying that the likelihood of a recession was extremely low,” Powell said. “So, it has moved up, but it’s not high.”
U.S. consumer confidence fell for the fourth straight month as Americans’ anxiety about their financial future declined to a 12-year low amid rising concern over tariffs and inflation. The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9. Analysts were expecting a decline to a level of 94.5, according to a survey by FactSet. The consumer confidence index measures both Americans’ assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity and is closely watched by economists for signs about how the American consumer is feeling.
Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes rebounded marginally in February amid a decline in mortgage rates but rising economic uncertainty could limit momentum. The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, rose 2.0% to 72.0. Economists polled had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, rebounding 1.0%. Pending home sales decreased 3.6% from a year earlier. “Despite the modest monthly increase, contract signings remain well below normal historical levels,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Mar. 21, 2025 | Mar. 28, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $3,013.86 | $3,077.76 | 63.90 | 2.12% |
| Silver | $32.95 | $34.05 | 1.10 | 3.34% |
| Platinum | $981.33 | $985.21 | 3.88 | 0.40% |
| Palladium | $958.29 | $978.86 | 20.57 | 2.15% |
| Dow | 41984.68 | 41578.86 | -405.82 | -0.97% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Mar. 29, 2024 | Mar. 28, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,221.41 | $3,077.76 | 856.35 | 38.55% |
| Silver | $24.87 | $34.05 | 9.18 | 36.91% |
| Platinum | $911.70 | $985.21 | 73.51 | 8.06% |
| Palladium | $1,019.78 | $978.86 | -40.92 | -4.01% |
| Dow | 39807.37 | 41578.86 | 1771.49 | 4.45% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 3021/2984/2945 | 33.31/32.38/31.72 |
| Resistance | 3060/3096/3135 | 33.96/34.90/35.55 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 960/946/921 | 962/939/920 |
| Resistance | 986/1000/1025 | 981/1004/1023 |