1. Gold prices are solidly higher and hit new record highs as some analysts expect the precious metal will attract safe-haven demand after data from the New York Federal Reserve showed a significant contraction in the region’s manufacturing sector. The regional central bank reported that its State Manufacturing Survey dropped to -20.0, down sharply from February’s reading of 5.7. The data was significantly weaker than expected, as economists had forecast a reading of -1.9. U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in February following a revised decrease of 1.2% in January. The data was worse than expectations as economists’ consensus calls projected a 0.6% increase in February’s headline number. In the last 12 months, retail sales increased 3.1%, the report said, against expectations for a 3.5% reading and following January’s revised 3.9% increase. Core sales, which strip out vehicle sales, were up 0.3% last month, below the consensus call for a 0.4% increase, and compared to January’s revised -0.6% print.
2. The stock market has sunk near a six-month low as concerns over slowing economic growth and fear of how tariffs could impact the outlook have shaken investor confidence. Last week, the S&P 500 fell nearly 2.3% while the Dow Jones dropped 3%, or more than 1,300 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell about 2.4%. On Thursday, the S&P 500 officially entered a correction as the benchmark index fell 10% from its record high on Feb. 19. In the week ahead, the Federal Reserve and the health of the U.S. economy will remain top of mind for investors. The central bank is largely expected to hold interest rates steady when it announces its next monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Markets will focus on any clues about when the central bank could cut rates again.
3. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, said he’s not worried about the recent downturn that’s wiped trillions of dollars from the equities market as the U.S. seeks to reshape its economic policies. “I’ve been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy, they are normal,” Bessent said Sunday. “I‘m not worried about the markets. Over the long term, if we put good tax policy in place, deregulation and energy security, the markets will do great.” The selloff that took the S&P 500 Index into a correction last week came amid investor concerns around tariffs, immigration and cuts to the federal government. While markets staged a strong rebound Friday, stock index futures declined in early Asian trading hours Monday showing sentiment remains fragile. “We are putting the policies in place that will make the affordability crisis go down, inflation moderate and as we set the sails, I am confident that the American people will come our way,” said Bessent, who ran Key Square Group before joining the administration.
4. Home builders made a small dent in the number of houses needed to meet demand, but the U.S. housing market supply remains short by millions of homes. The housing market needs as many as 3.8 million more homes to meet the demands of homebuyers in 2024, according to data from Realtor.com. It’s the first year since 2016 that home construction outpaced new household formation, showing that builders are beginning to catch up to the ongoing housing shortage. However, Realtor.com economists estimated it would take more than seven years for builders to construct enough homes to close the gap between demand at 2024’s rate. “We’re still years away from a normal, healthy housing situation,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
5. The founder of a cryptocurrency financial services firm pleaded guilty on Friday to U.S. charges that he participated in a wide-ranging scheme to manipulate the market for digital tokens on behalf of client companies. Aleksei Andriunin, the founder and CEO of cryptocurrency “market maker” Gotbit, and his company entered guilty pleas in federal court to charges that they conspired to commit market manipulation and wire fraud. There were 15 people, and three firms charged following a novel investigation dubbed “Operation Token Mirrors,” in which the FBI for the first time directed the creation of its own digital token to help catch fraudsters in the crypto market. The indictment cited a 2019 interview published online in which Andriunin described developing a code to wash trade cryptocurrencies to artificially inflate trading volume so they could get listed and trade on larger cryptocurrency exchanges. According to their plea deals, prosecutors have agreed to recommend that Andriunin receive up to two years in prison when he is sentenced on June 16, prosecutors said. Gotbit agreed to forfeit about $23 million in cryptocurrency.
6. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, suggesting the labor market remained stable in March, though the outlook is darkening amid rising trade tensions and deep cuts in government spending. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 223,000 for the week ended March 15, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled had forecast 224,000 claims for the latest week. Claims have been bouncing in the middle of their 203,000-242,000 range for this year, with layoffs generally staying low and hiring cooling off.
7. Crude oil prices were set for another weekly gain today, driven higher by fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran’s energy industry and OPEC+ efforts to rein in production. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $72.28 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $68.26 per barrel, both up from opening and both about $1 higher than they were at the start of the week.
8. EUR/USD extended its retreat from recent yearly highs on Thursday, dipping into the 1.0820-1.0810 range as the U.S. Dollar regained ground. The Greenback’s rebound propelled the Dollar Index (DXY) above the 104.00 mark, buoyed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks suggesting no rush to continue cutting rates.
9. USD/JPY hovers near 150.00 with ‘gravestone doji’ hinting at a possible downside. The yen remains flatlined late in the North American session after traders digested monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve. As both central banks maintained the “status quo,” traders turned the page and focused on the release of Japanese inflation figures at around 23:30 GMT. The pair is trading at 148.76, virtually unchanged. During the week, the USD/JPY pair enjoyed a bounce though it failed to reclaim the 150.00 figure, which opened the door for some sideways trading.
The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady but marked up its outlook for inflation and revised down its growth forecasts. The central bank’s decision keeps the benchmark rate between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent as analysts expected. Powell indicated that, despite fears of inflation, the Fed would stick to its plan to cut rates twice this year. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses to borrow money but crucially it also cuts borrowing costs for ordinary Americans, who then have more to spend on goods and services. “We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance,” Powell said in comments made after the rate announcement. Fed officials marked up their outlook for inflation this year, with their preferred measure of price increases expected to end the year at 2.7 percent versus the 2.5 percent anticipated in December. The Feds target is to get inflation down to 2 percent.
U.S. manufacturing production increased more than expected in February, boosted by a surge in motor vehicle output, but tariffs are casting a shadow on the nascent factory recovery. Factory output jumped 0.9% last month after an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in January, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Economists polled had forecasted production to rebound 0.3% after a previously reported 0.1% dip. Production at factories increased 0.7% on a year-on-year basis in February. Manufacturing, which accounts for 10.3% of the economy, has been recovering as the central bank started cutting interest rates in September.
The average U.S. 30-year mortgage rate rose for the first time since early January, causing a pullback in refinancing and tempering purchase activity. The contract rate on a 30-year mortgage climbed 5 basis points to 6.72% in the week ended March 14 from the lowest level this year, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday. The rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage also rose. MBA’s refinancing gauge declined nearly 13% after reaching the highest level since early October the previous week. An index application for home purchases edged up 0.1%.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Mar. 14, 2025 | Mar. 21, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,990.70 | $3,013.86 | 23.16 | 0.77% |
| Silver | $33.82 | $32.95 | -0.87 | -2.57% |
| Platinum | $997.70 | $981.33 | -16.37 | -1.64% |
| Palladium | $966.50 | $958.29 | -8.21 | -0.85% |
| Dow | 41488.19 | 41984.68 | 496.49 | 1.20% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Mar. 22, 2024 | Mar. 21, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,159.42 | $3,013.86 | 854.44 | 39.57% |
| Silver | $24.65 | $32.95 | 8.30 | 33.67% |
| Platinum | $896.10 | $981.33 | 85.23 | 9.51% |
| Palladium | $993.52 | $958.29 | -35.23 | -3.55% |
| Dow | 39483.40 | 41984.68 | 2501.28 | 6.34% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 2898/2867/2824 | 32.14/31.49/30.47 |
| Resistance | 3017/3043/3100 | 33.81/34.84/35.30 |
| Platinum | Palladium | |
| Support | 964/944/925 | 944/924/900 |
| Resistance | 1002/1021/1050 | 968/987/1011 |