1. As gold races to new records, Wall Street analysts have rushed to raise their price targets, with the latest call predicting the precious metal will touch $3,500 in the third quarter. On Thursday, gold futures climbed above $2,990 per ounce as a trade war intensified and the release of modest inflation data raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to cut rates this year. “Year-to-date, gold has been running ahead of our expectations,” Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie, wrote on Thursday. Gold futures have rallied more than 11% year to date, hitting multiple record highs since January. Wall Street has attributed much of these gains to continued central bank buying and tariff uncertainty, including the possibility that even imports of the precious metal into the U.S. won’t be spared. Institutional investors have shipped elevated amounts of physical gold bars to vaults in New York in a move to front-run tariffs and take advantage of a price disparity between London and New York. UPDATE: Gold prices passed $3,000 an ounce for the first time ever. The move through the psychological $3,000 level drives home gold’s centuries-old role as a store of value in turbulent times and as a gauge of fear in markets.
2. The price of bitcoin continues to fall. The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell below $78,000 on Monday, hitting its lowest level since the days following last November. It is now down 28% from its all-time high above $109,000, reached in January. Other digital assets beyond bitcoin also fell Monday, including Ethereum and XRP. Coinbase, a cryptocurrency exchange, was down 18% in Monday afternoon trading. “While the early parts of the crypto sell-off in January and early February had nothing to do with the global macro picture, the last two weeks have 100% been driven by the equity market tantrum,” Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer for crypto asset manager Arca, said in a note Monday. “The market reaction reflects a reset in expectations,” Haider Rafique, chief marketing officer for crypto exchange OKX, said via email. Monday’s move down was the latest example of how bitcoin’s price has whipsawed in recent weeks as it experienced its worst correction since a 2022 meltdown. “Crypto is still a risk asset, and also it needs more liquidity,” MarketVector’s Martin Leinweber told the media last week.
3. Monday’s market meltdown coincided with a major shift in how Wall Street is thinking about the health of the U.S. economy and the current bull market run. “You’re seeing a complete upending in virtually every single consensus trade that was common at the beginning of the year, everything in stocks, in bonds, in currencies,” Queens’ College, Cambridge, president and former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian said on Monday. “We’ve had a complete upending of conventional wisdom.” Now, economic growth forecasts are moving lower, and strategists are discussing the likelihood that their year-end targets for the S&P 500 might’ve been too optimistic. “We have seen the equity market on a rocky path higher through year-end and have believed that our 6,600 can absorb a 5-10% drawdown,” RBC Capital Markets head of U.S. equity strategy Lori Calvasina wrote in a note to clients on Sunday. “The risks of a drawdown of more than 10% have admittedly grown, however. If that occurs, we see a ‘growth scare’ of a 14-20% decline from peak as most likely, which could shift us into our bear case.”
4. Americans grew more worried about the economic outlook in February even as their expectations of the future path of inflation were little changed. According to the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, inflation a year from now is seen at 3.1%, up a hair from January’s 3% reading, while the projected level of inflation three and five years from now was unchanged relative to January at 3%. The Fed wants inflation at 2%. The relatively calm outlook for inflation contrasted, however, with expectations of accelerating price increases for food, rent, gasoline, college and medical costs, as well as a year-ahead expected rise in home prices of 3.3%. Uncertainty over the inflation outlook also rose. The New York Fed report noted that ‘households expressed more pessimism about their year-ahead financial situations in February, while unemployment, delinquency, and credit access expectations deteriorated notably,’ even as respondents to the survey ramped up spending expectations. The outlook presents a major conundrum for the Federal Reserve, which as of December had been expecting to lower its interest rate target further this year. Now, Fed officials may face an environment of rising inflation and a weakening economy, each potentially arguing for opposing interest rate choices.
5. Cooler-than-forecast February inflation pushed stocks higher on Wednesday after two days of heavy losses. A kneejerk rally in bonds quickly reversed and yields rose across the curve amid concerns over an escalating trade war. Equities advanced after a selloff that put the S&P 500 on the verge of a technical correction. The bounce was led by tech megacaps, which got heavily hit during the market meltdown. “For the last three weeks, traders have felt like buying this market is like trying to catch a falling knife, but extreme oversold conditions and near-universal pessimism suggest a relief rally is likely,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. While the consumer price index rose at the slowest pace in four months, several measures still indicate that inflation is rearing back up again. “Today’s cooler-than-expected CPI reading was a breath of fresh air, but no one should expect the Fed to start cutting rates immediately,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley. “Given the uncertainty of how trade and immigration policy will impact the economy, they’re going to want to see more than one month of friendly inflation data.”
6. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell slightly last week, indicating a still-healthy U.S. labor market. Jobless claims filings fell by 2,000 to 220,000 for the week ending March 8. That’s fewer than the 226,000 new applications analysts forecast. Despite showing some signs of weakening during the past year, the labor market remains healthy with plentiful jobs and relatively few layoffs. The Labor Department reported that U.S. employers added a solid 151,000 jobs last month, with employment rising in healthcare, finance and transportation and warehousing. The unemployment rate ticked up to a still healthy 4.1%.
7. Oil headed for its eighth straight weekly decline, the longest losing streak since 2015, as U.S. trade war takes a toll on the outlook for demand and traders braced for a return of Russia barrels to the market. West Texas Intermediate edged higher above $66 a barrel, supported by a weaker dollar and a rebound in the U.S. equity markets. Brent inched up near $70 but was on pace for its fourth straight weekly drop.
8. EUR/USD remains firm and near the 1.0900 barrier. EUR/USD is finding its footing and trading comfortably in positive territory as the week wraps up, shaking off two consecutive daily pullbacks and setting its sights back on the pivotal 1.0900 mark- and beyond.
9. U.S. Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range vs. the Japanese Yen (JPY), most likely between 147.45 and 148.70. In the longer run, downward momentum has largely faded; USD is expected to trade in a range between 146.50 and 149.50.
Consumer prices rose 2.8 percent in the 12 months through February, the Labor Department reported Wednesday, slower than the three percent year-over-year increase recorded in January. Economists had forecasted the Consumer Price Index (CPI) would be up 2.9 percent versus a year ago. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.1 percent compared with a year earlier. This was a smaller annual increase than consumers faced in January, when core prices were up 3.3 percent. Economists had forecasted a 3.2 percent rise. The monthly pace of price increases slowed significantly in February. Overall consumer prices climbed just 0.21 percent, the smallest increase since August 2024. In January, prices jumped 0.5 percent compared with December. Core prices also rose 0.2 percent, half of January’s 0.4 percent surge.
The average U.S. 30-year mortgage rate declined for a sixth straight week to the lowest level since early December, sparking a pickup in purchase and refinancing activity. The contract rate on a 30-year mortgage slipped 6 basis points to 6.67% in the first week of March, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data. The rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage decreased to 6.04%, the lowest since October, while the average on a 30-year jumbo was the cheapest in more than five months. Mortgage rates track Treasury yields, which have stabilized recently after declining substantially in February. Investors are flocking to the safety of government securities and gold as concerns about the economy spur a stock-market selloff.
Investing in crypto should still be handled with great care given its volatility. “I don’t see crypto as an asset class,” Edward Jones CEO Penny Pennington told the Opening Bid podcast. Pennington added, “There is not a fundamental value that stands behind crypto — however, it is becoming an innovation in our marketplace associated with blockchain innovations. That is a very real thing and will have a positive impact on our industry and on investors.” Edward Jones is continuing to look at ways to get involved in the crypto space, provided it makes potential sense for its wealth-building clients. But it currently doesn’t offer crypto products and isn’t rushing anything to market. To Pennington’s point, renewed crypto volatility may have some wondering about its status as a true asset, especially as a diversification tool inside a portfolio.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Mar. 7, 2025 | Mar. 14, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,905.40 | $2,990.70 | 85.30 | 2.94% |
| Silver | $32.31 | $33.82 | 1.51 | 4.67% |
| Platinum | $962.48 | $997.70 | 35.22 | 3.66% |
| Palladium | $950.70 | $966.50 | 15.80 | 1.66% |
| Dow | 42801.72 | 41488.19 | -1313.53 | -3.07% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Mar. 15, 2024 | Mar. 14, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,156.82 | $2,990.70 | 833.88 | 38.66% |
| Silver | $25.20 | $33.82 | 8.62 | 34.21% |
| Platinum | $940.80 | $997.70 | 56.90 | 6.05% |
| Palladium | $1,081.76 | $966.50 | -115.26 | -10.65% |
| Dow | 38715.10 | 41488.19 | 2773.09 | 7.16% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 2898/2867/2824 | 32.14/31.49/30.47 |
| Resistance | 3017/3043/3100 | 33.81/34.84/35.30 |
| Platinum | Palladium | |
| Support | 964/944/925 | 944/924/900 |
| Resistance | 1002/1021/1050 | 968/987/1011 |