1. The first week of March will bring investors a crucial jobs report and a range of key retail earnings that could have the potential to either stoke or allay fears about the U.S. economy and the consumer showing some signs of stress. The February jobs report on Friday is expected to show hiring rose modestly last month while the unemployment rate held steady at 4%. And that brings investors into the month of March with more questions than answers as tariff deadlines loom, the Federal Reserve’s next meeting fast approaches, and the economy faces the burden of trying to disprove investors’ fears about a growth scare.
2. Gold rebounded from its worst week of the year as the U.S. dollar eased and buyers flocked to the safe-haven asset. On Monday, gold futures gained more than 1.86% to hover above $2,900. The precious metal rebounded from a loss of roughly 3% last week, when a strong dollar weighed on the commodity. Gold futures are up more than 9% year to date. Strategists attribute much of the rally to continued central bank buying and uncertainty over tariffs, including the possibility that even imports of the precious metal won’t be spared. Institutional investors have shipped elevated amounts of physical gold bars to vaults in New York in a move to front-run tariffs and take advantage of a price disparity between London and New York.
3. As spring homebuying season approaches, prospective buyers are finding themselves with the upper hand — sort of. Interest rates are still high, as are home prices. But the lucky few who can overcome those affordability hurdles have the most inventory to choose from in years. Homes are lingering on the market longer in many parts of the country, giving buyers more negotiating power and helping keep a lid on prices for the first time in years. The shifting fortunes are the latest sign that the housing market may finally be exiting a deep freeze that started in mid-2022, when mortgage rates and home prices rapidly rose in tandem, pricing millions out of the market and sending home sales plummeting. Active listings in February were 27.5% higher than a year earlier, an encouraging sign considering that market dynamics like mortgage rates and all-in prices haven’t changed much.
4. OPEC+ has decided to proceed with a planned April oil output increase, three sources from the producer group said on Monday. OPEC+, which includes OPEC members plus Russia and other allies, has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day, equal to about 5.7% of global supply, agreed in a series of steps since 2022 to support the market. In December, OPEC+ extended its latest layer of cuts through the first quarter of 2025, pushing back the plan to begin raising output to April. The extension was the latest of several delays. Based on that plan, the gradual unwinding of 2.2 million bpd of cuts – the most recent layer – begins in April with a monthly rise of 138,000 bpd, according to calculations.
5. Investors should expect to see significant and entrenched structural supply deficits in the platinum market for the foreseeable future as recycling and mine production cannot keep up with solid consumption, according to the World Platinum Investment Council. The platinum market is expected to see a supply deficit of 848,000 ounces this year, compared to last year’s deficit of nearly one million ounces, the WPIC said on Wednesday. This is the third year the platinum market has recorded a significant deficit. Looking at platinum supply, mine production rose by 3% year-on-year to 5,766 koz, driven by stronger-than-expected output from South Africa and Russia. However, this year, mine production is expected to drop by 5%.
6. Applications for U.S. jobless benefits fell last week as the labor market remains sturdy ahead of an expected purge of federal government employees. The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits fell by 21,000 to 221,000 for the week ending March 1, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s significantly fewer than the 236,000 new applications analysts expected. Weekly applications for jobless benefits are considered a proxy for layoffs, which have remained mostly in a range between 200,000 and 250,000 for years. The four-week average, which evens out some of the week-to-week volatility, inched up by 250 to 224,250. The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits for the week of Feb. 22 rose by 42,000 to 1.9 million.
7. Brent crude climbed to $70.5 per barrel on Friday, attempting to rebound from recent declines, after Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Novak suggested that the OCEC+ group could reverse its planned output increase after April if market imbalances persist. Despite the recovery, Brent remained on track for a 3.1% weekly decline, pressured by concerns that escalating trade tensions could weaken global energy demand and expectations of rising supply from major oil producers. At the time of writing, WTI was trading at $66.9 per barrel.
8. On Thursday, the EUR/USD is up more than 3.9% this week, which is the second largest weekly gain for the pair in the past year, rivaled only by an outing in November of 2022 when the ECB had ramped up rate hikes to 75 bp increments (3.87%), and the bounce from the Covid sell-off in the pair (4.16%). EUR/USD had spent most of February showing indication of being less bearish, and the pair had continually pushed up for tests of the 1.0500 psychological level. Now we’re seeing what a pent-up breakout looks like when bulls are finally able to take out resistance.
9. The Japanese Yen (JPY) stands firm near its highest level since early October against a broadly weaker U.S. Dollar through the early European session on Friday amid hawkish Bank of Japan expectations. Moreover, persistent speculation that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates has been exerting upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields. The resultant narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and other countries further contributes to driving flows towards the lower-yielding JPY.
As weaker-than-expected data has spurred concerns about U.S. economic growth, markets have moved to price in more easing from the Federal Reserve this year. On Tuesday, traders were betting on three interest rate cuts from the Fed in 2025 for the first time this year. Debate around when the next cut will come has intensified too. Markets now see a 50/50 chance the Fed will lower rates at its May meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Just a week ago, they were pricing in a 75% chance the Fed would hold rates steady that month. “‘Fed cuts because of weak economic data’ is not a good thing for markets anymore,” Citi equity strategist Drew Pettit said. “If we were talking about this two months ago, you know, ‘Fed cuts against a resilient backdrop’ was good for markets.” January data showed that consumer spending fell for the first time in nearly two years. Separate data showed retail sales for the month saw the largest monthly decline in a year. Housing activity has remained in the doldrums. And most recently on Monday, readings on manufacturing activity and construction spending were weaker than expected, sending forecasts for economic growth in the first quarter tumbling.
U.S. mortgage rates declined last week to an almost three-month low, sparking lending activity for home refinancing and purchases in a welcome sign for the struggling housing market. The contract rate on a 30-year mortgage declined 15 basis points, the most since November, to 6.73% in the final week ended February, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday. Mortgage rates track Treasury yields, which have fallen in the past week as investors seek safety amid a drop in stocks. Yields have also declined after recent data showed a weak start to the year for the economy. MBA’s refinancing gauge jumped 37% to the highest level since early October, while its index applications for home purchases advanced more than 9%. The increase in purchase applications was the first since mid-January, after the MBA revised away the previous week’s gain.
U.S. worker productivity grew a bit faster than initially thought in the fourth quarter, helping to curb labor costs and providing a boost in the fight against inflation. Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 1.5% annualized rate last quarter. That was revised higher from the previously estimated 1.2% pace. Economists had expected productivity would be unrevised at a 1.2% pace. Productivity increased at a 2.0% rate from a year ago, up from the previously estimated 1.6% pace. It grew 2.7% in 2024, revised up by 0.4 percentage point. Productivity increased 1.8% in 2023, an upward revision to the previously reported 1.6%. Productivity data for the third and fourth quarters as well as the annual average for 2024 were revised to incorporate regular updates of source data on output and compensation.
The February jobs report out Friday offered few surprises for investors, with job gains increasing slightly and the unemployment rate rising to 4.1% amid heightened investor fears over the trajectory of the U.S. labor market and broader economy. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed 151,000 new jobs were created in February, less than the 160,000 expected by economists but more than the 125,000 seen in January. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from the 4% seen in the prior month. January’s monthly job gains were revised lower from a previous reading of 143,000. Wage growth, an important measure for gauging inflation pressures, rose 4% over the prior year in February, down from the 4.1% seen in January. On a monthly basis, wages increased 0.3%, below the 0.4% seen the prior month.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Feb. 28, 2025 | Mar. 7, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,837.80 | $2,905.40 | 67.60 | 2.38% |
| Silver | $30.95 | $32.31 | 1.36 | 4.39% |
| Platinum | $941.13 | $962.48 | 21.35 | 2.27% |
| Palladium | $919.85 | $950.70 | 30.85 | 3.35% |
| Dow | 43840.72 | 42801.72 | -1039.00 | -2.37% |
Previous Year Comparison
| Mar. 8, 2024 | Mar. 7, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,184.66 | $2,905.40 | 720.74 | 32.99% |
| Silver | $24.39 | $32.31 | 7.92 | 32.47% |
| Platinum | $913.65 | $962.48 | 48.83 | 5.34% |
| Palladium | $1,021.35 | $950.70 | -70.65 | -6.92% |
| Dow | 38726.07 | 42801.72 | 4075.65 | 10.52% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 2882/2808/2758 | 31.58/30.37/29.59 |
| Resistance | 2932/3006/3056 | 32.36/33.57/34.35 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 956/929/911 | 934/893/868 |
| Resistance | 974/1001/1020 | 960/1001/1027 |