1. The gold market continues to trade in record territory against the Canadian dollar, staying within striking distance of C$4,000 an ounce, as the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates and announces an end to its quantitative tightening measures. In a widely anticipated move, Canada’s central bank lowered its overnight bank rate by 25 basis points to 3%. At the same time, the BoC announced that it will begin increasing its balance sheet again. The gold market has shown little reaction to the expected easing, last trading at C$3,986.10 an ounce, up 0.21% on the day. Gold is outperforming the Loonie as the Canadian dollar weakens against the U.S. dollar.
2. Monday’s swift sell-off in the markets serves as a reminder for not only what’s been the driving force of the bull market thus far, but also what investors have been expecting to come in 2025. It’s all about big tech earnings. New developments from Chinese artificial intelligence DeepSeek sparked the rout as investor concerns over brewing competition in the AI space for Nvidia and other big tech names prompted pause in the U.S. AI trade. Nvidia stock dropped more than 11%. Meanwhile fellow “Magnificent Seven” members Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Tesla were all off 2% or more in early trading. Broadcom, another large player in the AI space, was down more than 12%. “When expectations are high, one skeptical headline can knock the market off its axis,” Ritholtz Wealth Management chief strategist Callie Cox wrote in a note on Monday. “That’s exactly what we’re seeing today.” A slowdown in Big Tech’s rapid earnings growth has been a risk to the market that strategists have been talking about for more than a year. With index valuations near multi-decade highs and the 10 largest stocks comprising nearly 40% of the S&P 500, strategists have argued the rapid rally in stocks is increasingly on thin ice. But unlike other risks like higher interest rates or sticky inflation, there hasn’t been a clear story for why the exceptional Big Tech earnings growth story would collapse. For now, DeepSeek AI model launch appears to be a tangible reason for investors to question whether the high earnings expectations will truly follow through.
3. Treasuries rallied on Monday as investors flocked to the safety of U.S. government bonds after equities slumped in a selloff driven by technology shares. The yield on 10-year US notes fell as much as 12.5 basis points, the most intraday in almost two weeks, to 4.50%, before paring the decline. The two-year rate, which is highly sensitive to expectations for Federal Reserve policy, dropped 10 basis points to 4.17%, the lowest in over a month. Haven currencies including the yen and the Swiss franc surged. “It’s the by-the-book, flight to quality to the Treasury market, as risky assets plummeted,” said Chris Diaz, global fixed income portfolio manager at Brown Advisory. The extent of the slide in equities will determine how long the haven trade runs for bonds, given key events ahead this week, including two Treasury auctions Monday and the Federal Reserve’s next decision on monetary policy on Wednesday.
4. U.S. consumer confidence weakened for a second straight month in January amid renewed concerns about the labor market and inflation. The Conference Board said on Tuesday its consumer confidence index fell to 104.1 this month from an upwardly revised 109.5 in December. Economists polled had forecast the index rising to 105.6 from the previously reported 104.7. “Views of current labor market conditions fell for the first time since September, while assessments of business conditions weakened for the second month in a row,” said Dana Peterson, the chief economist at the Conference Board. “Additionally, references to inflation and prices continue to dominate write-in responses.”
5. Mortgage rates were essentially unchanged this week, despite a stock market rout that sent skittish investors rushing into safe-haven assets. The average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.95% this week through Wednesday, compared with 6.96% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac data. 15-year mortgage rates edged down to 6.12%, from 6.16%. Treasury yields are closely linked to mortgage rates, and Monday’s move sent yields sharply lower, though they rose somewhat on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held off on further benchmark interest rate cuts to assess inflation.
6. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to low layoffs though job opportunities are becoming scarce for those who are out of work. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended Jan. 25, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled had forecasted 220,000 claims for the latest week.
7. Crude oil prices looked set for their second consecutive weekly decline since the start of the year despite staging a partial recovery in anticipation of President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on the biggest crude suppliers to the U.S. this weekend. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $77.48 per barrel with West Texas Intermediate at $73.39 per barrel, both up from opening in Asia. Even with two consecutive weekly losses, crude oil is set for a monthly gain, estimating that at 3.6% for Brent crude, the highest monthly gain since last June.
8. EUR/USD declines to near 1.0370 as inflation in six states of Germany decelerates in January. The EUR/USD remains under pressure as the U.S. Dollar performs strongly, with the Dollar Index (DXY) refreshing a weekly high around 108.35. The safe-haven appeal of the Greenback strengthens as United States President Donald Trump reiterated his intentions of imposing tariffs on his North American peers and BRICS on Thursday.
9. The Japanese Yen attracts some intraday sellers and snaps a two-day winning streak against its American counterpart after Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said this Friday that the underlying inflation is still somewhat below 2%. Apart from this, a modest bounce in the U.S. Treasury bond yields and a generally positive risk tone undermines the safe-haven JPY. This, in turn, assists the USD/JPY pair in rebinding nearly 100 pips from the Asian session low.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday, its first pause following three consecutive cuts at the end of 2024. The central bank voted unanimously to keep its benchmark interest rate in a range of 4.25-4.5% at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting. Policymakers retained language in their statement emphasizing that they would consider “the extent and timing” of additional adjustments to rates based on the data and changing outlook. But they removed language noting that inflation had made progress toward the Fed’s 2% goal, retaining only that “inflation remains somewhat elevated.” That new language from policymakers underscored that the Fed now has a higher bar for cutting rates further after reducing borrowing costs by a full percentage point at the tail end of last year.
Gold and silver prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading Thursday, with gold hitting a three-month high and silver a six-week peak. Gold prices are closing in on new record highs. Safe-haven demand is featured, as well as chart-based buying, in the two precious metals. April gold was last up $29.80 at $2,823.40. March silver was up $0.692 at $32.08. Technically, April gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,846.60. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,750.00. March silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have restarted a price uptrend. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $33.33. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00.
The U.S. economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the fourth quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.3% during the period, below the 2.6% growth expected by economists surveyed. The reading came in lower than the 3.1% growth seen in the third quarter. For the year, the U.S. economy grew at 2.8% pace, slightly below the 2.9% number seen in 2023 but above the 2.5% growth seen in 2022.
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Jan. 24, 2025 | Jan. 31, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,773.71 | $2,808.44 | 34.73 | 1.25% |
| Silver | $30.68 | $31.49 | 0.81 | 2.64% |
| Platinum | $953.62 | $984.95 | 31.33 | 3.29% |
| Palladium | $990.30 | $1,025.76 | 35.46 | 3.58% |
| Dow | 44424.25 | 44544.19 | 119.94 | 0.27% |
Month End to Month End Close
| Dec. 31, 2024 | Jan. 31, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,625.31 | $2,808.44 | 183.13 | 6.98% |
| Silver | $28.86 | $31.49 | 2.63 | 9.11% |
| Platinum | $908.45 | $984.95 | 76.50 | 8.42% |
| Palladium | $915.31 | $1,025.76 | 110.45 | 12.07% |
| Dow | 42544.22 | 44544.19 | 1999.97 | 4.70% |
Previous Year Comparisons
| Feb. 2, 2024 | Jan. 31, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,035.10 | $2,808.44 | 773.34 | 38.00% |
| Silver | $22.66 | $31.49 | 8.83 | 38.97% |
| Platinum | $897.43 | $984.95 | 87.52 | 9.75% |
| Palladium | $948.97 | $1,025.76 | 76.79 | 8.09% |
| Dow | 38656.06 | 44544.19 | 5888.13 | 15.23% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 2748/2711/2652 | 30.54/30.03/29.46 |
| Resistance | 2808/2845/2905 | 31.62/32.19/32.94 |
| Platinum | Palladiumn | |
| Support | 948/935/921 | 978/938/889 |
| Resistance | 990/1015/1055 | 1027/1066/1115 |