1. Oil slid ahead of the inauguration day. Brent crude retreated below $80 after falling over the past two sessions. Trump is poised to invoke emergency powers in the hours after he’s sworn in as part of his plan to unleash domestic energy production, according to people familiar with the matter. The incoming President is expected to unleash a barrage of executive orders but will stop short of new tariffs. He recently threatened hefty tariffs on trade partners including China, Canada and Mexico, and could implement sanctions on Iran. Crude has rallied at the start of the year, after frigid weather in the Northern Hemisphere drove higher heating demand and broader U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil industry left customers in Asia seeking alternative supplies. Trading volumes for Monday’s session may be lower due to a federal holiday in the U.S. Speculators have increased their net wagers on rising prices for the global benchmark, although there’s also been a smaller buildup of short positions. On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow is open for dialogue with the U.S. on Ukraine.
2. Stubborn inflation and growing economic uncertainty, as government debt continues to rise, are helping to push gold prices to critical resistance levels above $2,700 an ounce. Not only is gold looking to end the first full trading week of 2025 at a one-month high, but bullish momentum is picking up even as the U.S. dollar index remains elevated above 109 points. Spot gold last traded at $2,703 an ounce, up 0.51% on the week. Although gold is seeing solid gains, some analysts note the precious metal still has work to do to break out of its two-month consolidation period. Although gold’s performance against the U.S. dollar is impressive in itself, analysts note that the global currency market shows broad-based strength in gold. This past week, gold managed to hit fresh all-time highs against major currencies like the euro, British pound, yuan, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar. Gold’s significant resistance level remains $3,000 an ounce, as many analysts see the precious metal hitting that target in the second half of the year.
3. President Donald Trump’s economic agenda, including potential tax cuts and deregulation, will likely overshadow the Federal Reserve’s influence in the coming years, according to Peter St Onge, an economist at the Heritage Foundation. In an interview St Onge argued that Trump’s policies aimed at boosting economic growth, such as tax cuts and deregulation, could counteract the Fed’s efforts to control inflation. He suggested that these policies could lead to increased spending by families and businesses, effectively crowding out the Fed’s attempts to slow down the economy. “What Powell’s concerned about at this point is that Trump wants to reverse that,” St Onge said. “So, Trump wants to cut taxes. He wants to give money back to people. He wants families to be spending again. He wants companies to be spending. He wants banks to be lending.” St Onge believes that the Fed’s recent interest rate cuts, totaling a full percentage point since September, are an acknowledgment of its past mistakes in handling inflation. St Onge also raised concerns about the accuracy of government economic data, suggesting potential revisions could emerge following Trump’s inauguration. He noted a disconnect between official statistics and public sentiment, with many Americans believing the country is already in a recession. St Onge advocates for ending the Federal Reserve, arguing that it is the primary cause of inflation and boom-bust cycles. He proposed reinstating a gold standard by allowing the Treasury to sell gold at a fixed price and requiring it to replenish its reserves on the open market. “The Fed is the only cause of inflation because it prints money,” St Onge stated.
4. Companies around the world grew increasingly more optimistic about global growth in the coming year, but concerns about economic volatility and inflation remained, according to a survey on Monday as leaders gathered in Davos, Switzerland. Nearly 60% of bosses in a survey from accountants PwC felt optimistic about global growth in the 12 months ahead, compared to 38% a year earlier. But 29% of chief executives said macroeconomic volatility could lead to a substantial financial loss in the year ahead, and nearly the same amount cited inflation as a top concern. Britain was ranked as the second-top country to invest in behind the United States, the first time it reached that spot in records dating back to 1997, PwC said. More than half of British bosses were optimistic about economic growth in the next 12 months, up from 39% in 2023.
5. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose marginally last week, suggesting no deterioration in labor market conditions and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates next week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 223,000 for the week ended Jan. 18. The economists polled had forecasted 220,000 claims for the latest week. Claims were likely lifted by the wildfire in Los Angeles, with unadjusted applications increasing in California, but falling in the majority of states.
6. Oil fell after President Donald Trump said he’ll push Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce the price of crude. West Texas Intermediate futures slid 1.1% to settle below $75 a barrel, while global benchmark Brent slipped near $78. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have been engaged in a yearslong effort to support prices by curbing output. The producer group has millions of barrels a day in spare capacity that it could potentially return to the market — and it has pledged to gradually revive a chunk of this output starting in April after several delays. The drop puts crude on pace for its fifth straight losing session.
7. EUR/USD moves lower to around 1.0400 in Thursday’s North American session as the U.S. Dollar gains ground. The Dollar Index, which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its recovery to near 108.40 from the two-week low of 107.75 posted on Wednesday. The Greenback bounces back as the market sentiment turns slightly cautious, with investors assessing the consequences of United States tariffs on economic growth.
8. The USD/JPY pair ticks lower to near 156.30 in Thursday’s European session. The asset faces slight pressure as the U.S. Dollar trades subduedly as investors seek clarity over the tariff plan by United States. In the Asia-Pacific side, investors await the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy announcement on Friday. The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates. This would be the third-interest rate hike by the BoJ of the current policy-tightening cycle.
New contracts for home purchases are coming in very low this month. We counted 10% fewer home sales for the week than the same week a year ago. In the fourth quarter of 2024, sales were coming in at 5% to 10% more than the year prior. Those sales gains have evaporated and even reversed. Buyer activity has been dropping for several weeks and there are now fewer homes in contract than a year ago. Both the weekly new contracts and all the homes in the contract pending stage are below last year. This housing market is on hold until mortgage rates come down. There are now 632,000 single-family homes unsold on the market around the U.S. That’s up 1.25% from last week. It’s almost 25% more homes unsold than a year ago. It’s not uncommon for inventory to tick up in mid-January like it did this week. The holidays are over, some of the spring listings have come out, and there are not a lot of sales yet. It’s also common for inventory to dip again before the end of the month.
A rally in big tech and a batch of earnings from corporate heavyweights drove stocks to the brink of all-time highs in a continuation of the advance fueled by the strength of Corporate America. Equities extended their gains for the year, with the S&P 500 hovering near 6,100. Despite a recent broadening attempt of the market beyond a handful of megacaps, tech led the way on Wednesday, and most companies in the S&P 500 actually fell. Poor breadth has been a major concern of investors, especially among those nervous about sky-high valuations and frothy AI stocks. JP Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said there are signs that the U.S. stock market is overheated. “Asset prices are kind of inflated,” Dimon said in an interview Wednesday. “You need fairly good outcomes to justify those prices, and we’re all hoping for that.” The S&P 500 rose 0.8%. The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2%. A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps gained 1.6%. The Russell 2000 fell 0.5%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.60%. The Dollar Spot Index wavered.
Mortgage rates dropped for the first time in six weeks, sliding back below 7% as bond traders grew less jittery about President Donald Trump’s economic agenda. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 6.96% through Wednesday, down from 7.04% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac data. The average 15-year mortgage rate was 6.16%, declining from 6.27%. Applications for new home purchases rose 1% through Friday compared to a week earlier, though refinancing applications fell 3%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. MBA’s chief economist Mike Fratantoni said in a statement that rates around 7% are “a key psychological level, which likely continues to slow the pace of activity for both refinances and purchases.”
Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.
Trading Department – Precious Metals International Ltd.
Friday to Friday Close (New York Closing Prices)
| Jan. 17, 2025 | Jan. 24, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,712.91 | $2,773.71 | 60.80 | 2.24% |
| Silver | $30.33 | $30.68 | 0.35 | 1.15% |
| Platinum | $944.10 | $953.62 | 9.52 | 1.01% |
| Palladium | $956.56 | $990.30 | 33.74 | 3.53% |
| Dow | 43487.59 | 44424.25 | 936.66 | 2.15% |
Previous Year Comparisons
| Jan. 26, 2024 | Jan. 24, 2025 | Net Change | ||
| Gold | $2,016.75 | $2,773.71 | 756.96 | 37.53% |
| Silver | $22.75 | $30.68 | 7.93 | 34.86% |
| Platinum | $916.05 | $953.62 | 37.57 | 4.10% |
| Palladium | $961.44 | $990.30 | 28.86 | 3.00% |
| Dow | 38109.50 | 44424.25 | 6314.75 | 16.57% |
Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week.
| Gold | Silver | |
| Support | 2663/2626/2595 | 29.56/28.78/28.07 |
| Resistance | 2732/2762/2800 | 31.04/31.76/32.53 |
| Platinum | Palladium | |
| Support | 925/908/885 | 923/899/873 |
| Resistance | 965/988/1005 | 973/1000/1024 |